Is the Sky Falling? Chinese Example says NO

[African Zealot 1,452]

Is this pandemic serious? Absolutely!

 

Will some people die? Unfortunately yes!

 

However watching cable news one would think the world is ending. However China with a population of 1.3 billion recorded 3000 dead and new infections are now 19 a day. That’s in a population of 1.3 billion. 

 

I know some Americans just love to disparage China and doubt their numbers and its their prerogative. However China has closed all twelve emergency hospitals they built. That’s conclusive evidence they’ve tamed this devil virus. South Korea has this thing under control from just three weeks ago.

 

My takeaway from this is, the Sky is not falling, the world is not ending, and the 24/7 news cycle helps nobody but the cable channels. China slew this dragon in three months, the United States ultimately will overcome this in a few months. 

 

Nine months from now there will be a population boom boom from people being stuck indoors. Life surely will return to normal and the doomsday preachers will crawl into their holes.

 

 

[DELETEME1234 208]

18 minutes ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

Is this pandemic serious? Absolutely!

 

Will some people die? Unfortunately yes!

 

However watching cable news one would think the world is ending. However China with a population of 1.3 billion recorded 3000 dead and new infections are now 19 a day. That’s in a population of 1.3 billion. 

 

I know some Americans just love to disparage China and doubt their numbers and its their prerogative. However China has closed all twelve emergency hospitals they built. That’s conclusive evidence they’ve tamed this devil virus. South Korea has this thing under control from just three weeks ago.

 

My takeaway from this is, the Sky is not falling, the world is not ending, and the 24/7 news cycle helps nobody but the cable channels. China slew this dragon in three months, the United States ultimately will overcome this in a few months. 

 

Nine months from now there will be a population boom boom from people being stuck indoors. Life surely will return to normal and the doomsday preachers will crawl into their holes.

 

 

You're forgetting that China, after first trying to silence doctors in the beginning no less, has been way more on top of this than for example the US. Keep in mind that China has been dealing with this since November and they used their authoritarian government to lock down and quarantine entire areas with million of people and just now in March they've piqued. 

 

We (the US and other countries for that matter) are just starting to take this seriously and the numbers we're reporting are severely deflated because of lack of testing, the likelihood of the number of infected in the US being tenfold than what is currently reported is very likely. Individual jurisdictions are reporting as such. Ohio says they're pretty certain that they have at least 100,000 infected.

 

So no, the sky isn't falling. But to play it down would be a grave mistake. Here's the deal, we will never know for sure if we overacted with all the measures that we're putting in place, but it will be damn well clear afterwards if we didn't take enough measures. 

 

We can't compare to China because, as much as people like to think in black/white, China did a pretty good job containing this once they started taking it seriously. We are barely getting started, if that. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

   China managed a level of quarantine and industrial shut down that we may not be willing or able to do. They did accomplish what they set out to do. A phrase everyone is quickly becoming familiar with. They flattened the curve.

 

  They issued a caution just yesterday. People are starting to get back to a semblance of normal, the virus is still circulating and most people haven't been exposed yet. It wouldn't take much to be right back where they were a month ago if people get lackadaisical about the situation.

[African Zealot 1,452]

21 minutes ago, Poseidon1212 said:

Ohio says they're pretty certain that they have at least 100,000 infected.

The Ohio number is a good example of bureaucrats pulling numbers out of ones behind. Let’s assume it’s true, how many in Ohio have died, 4? Wouldn’t that even go to suggest at 0.004% mortality rate that is way milder than the Chinese 2% mortality rate? The Ohio estimate number is alarmist garbage and shouldn’t even come into the discussion.

 

Now if by your own writeup, China flunked the first few weeks and USA did similar, what make you think USA will end up with worse statistics than China, a country with four times the population of the USA? Doesn’t add up. Yes China shut down and quarantined huge areas however USA is now responding to the situation nicely. Let’s put this in perspective a grand total of 3,000 people died in a country of 1.3 billion.

 

In conclusion nowhere did I say we should downplay this. I said the sky is not falling and the world is not ending and a few months from now things will be back to normal. Is that in dispute from the data we have?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Ray.Bonaquist

[DELETEME1234 208]

23 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

China managed a level of quarantine and industrial shut down that we may not be willing or able to do. They did accomplish what they set out to do. A phrase everyone is quickly becoming familiar with. They flattened the curve.

It's a surprise how much you can accomplish when you can set aside human rights haha. But yes, the non-authoritarian governments don't want to go to the same extremes. You can clearly see this by those same governments first imploring to self-quarantine and not to go out before they actually lock down certain parts of society vs. having military and LE on the streets to make sure everyone stays inside in China and banning domestic travel to/from a specific area. 

 

In contrast, the US is carefully hinting at blocking domestic travel (Fauci). 

 

23 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

They issued a caution just yesterday. People are starting to get back to a semblance of normal, the virus is still circulating and most people haven't been exposed yet. It wouldn't take much to be right back where they were a month ago if people get lackadaisical about the situation.

Indeed. Sadly a lot of people refuse to understand this. 

 

20 minutes ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

Let’s assume it’s true

Please, let's.

 

20 minutes ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

how many in Ohio have died, 4

This is getting really tiresome. 

 

It is very simple principle, but for some object permanence is really a challenge. 

This is the caveat:

 

If you don't test on a meaningful scale, you don't know how many people are infected or die as a result of COVID-19. 

 

If there are 1000 people that died in Ohio in the past week then the actual honest answer to the question 'How many of them died of COVID-19?' is: 'We don't know, because we haven't been testing nearly enough people to make a statistical significant comment on the matter.' 

 

20 minutes ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

The Ohio number is a good example of pulling numbers out of ones behind.

Maybe, but it's not more or less reliable than the numbers the news and the CDC is reporting right now. 

 

Quote

"We know now, just the fact of community spread, says that at least 1 percent, at the very least, 1 percent of our population is carrying this virus in Ohio today," Acton said then. "We have 11.7 million people. So the math is over 100,000. So that just gives you a sense of how this virus spreads and is spreading quickly."

 

She also noted that the lack of widespread testing means that officials do not know for sure. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/487534-ohio-official-was-guesstimating-statement-that-100000-people-have

 

That's the issue, that's why, amongst other reasons, it is so important to have adequate testing numbers. 

 

All we know for sure is a couple of things: 

 

The mortality rate is higher than that of the common flu. 

It typically affects older people and people with pre-existing conditions more in terms of mortality, but by no means does it not affect younger people.

We haven't been testing enough and statistic logic and mathematics tells us that it's highly unlikely that the official numbers reflect reality (which is why Fauci and others keep saying that it's gonna get worse and the numbers will go up). 

 

That's all we know, and unless these last couple of days are a prelude of us getting our together we might be one of the countries with a high mortality rate (e.g. 6%). 

 

ETA:

 

20 minutes ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

Now if by your own writeup, China flunked the first few weeks and USA did similar, what make you think USA will end up with worse statistics than China, a country with four times the population of the USA? Doesn’t add up. Yes China shut down and quarantined huge areas however USA is now responding to the situation nicely. 

China flunked the first few weeks. The difference between November and March is 12 weeks at least, that's not similar.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Poseidon1212

[Tristesse 17]

Population boom lol. The Quaranteenagers to be.

 

That or a record number of divorces...

[African Zealot 1,452]

3 hours ago, Poseidon1212 said:

China flunked the first few weeks. The difference between November and March is 12 weeks at least, that's not similar.

You expected the USA to start ramping up to pandemic levels as far back as November when China had a handful of patients, really? That’s totally unrealistic. USA can’t get into pandemic mode any time a handful of people in a foreign country come down with some strange disease.

 

At worst, sometime in January is when the USA should realistically have started ramping up. That is the definition of a few weeks.

 

😁

[Steeleballz 7,550]

37 minutes ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

You expected the USA to start ramping up to pandemic levels as far back as November when China had a handful of patients, really? That’s totally unrealistic. USA can’t get into pandemic mode any time a handful of people in a foreign country come down with some strange disease.

 

At worst, sometime in January is when the USA should realistically have started ramping up. That is the definition of a few weeks.

 

😁

 

    We could have been testing symptomatic people in areas where the virus was statistically likely to be circulating in early January, instead of adhering to guidelines like requiring travel history and ruling out other health issues. They tried to get away with half measures for too long. We are getting better, but we have to accept we have been 1 step behind with every measure. If we continue to do that, we will be more likely to end up like Italy than China.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Steeleballz

[igoyougoduke 1,604]

7 hours ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

Is this pandemic serious? Absolutely!

 

Will some people die? Unfortunately yes!

 

However watching cable news one would think the world is ending. However China with a population of 1.3 billion recorded 3000 dead and new infections are now 19 a day. That’s in a population of 1.3 billion. 

 

I know some Americans just love to disparage China and doubt their numbers and its their prerogative. However China has closed all twelve emergency hospitals they built. That’s conclusive evidence they’ve tamed this devil virus. South Korea has this thing under control from just three weeks ago.

 

My takeaway from this is, the Sky is not falling, the world is not ending, and the 24/7 news cycle helps nobody but the cable channels. China slew this dragon in three months, the United States ultimately will overcome this in a few months. 

 

Nine months from now there will be a population boom boom from people being stuck indoors. Life surely will return to normal and the doomsday preachers will crawl into their holes.

 

 

Haha if you believe that chinese numbers are the truth than i have a ice bridge to sell to eskimos 

[Orangesapples 1,954]

8 hours ago, Ray.Bonaquist said:

Is this pandemic serious? Absolutely!

 

Will some people die? Unfortunately yes!

 

However watching cable news one would think the world is ending. However China with a population of 1.3 billion recorded 3000 dead and new infections are now 19 a day. That’s in a population of 1.3 billion. 

 

I know some Americans just love to disparage China and doubt their numbers and its their prerogative. However China has closed all twelve emergency hospitals they built. That’s conclusive evidence they’ve tamed this devil virus. South Korea has this thing under control from just three weeks ago.

 

My takeaway from this is, the Sky is not falling, the world is not ending, and the 24/7 news cycle helps nobody but the cable channels. China slew this dragon in three months, the United States ultimately will overcome this in a few months. 

 

Nine months from now there will be a population boom boom from people being stuck indoors. Life surely will return to normal and the doomsday preachers will crawl into their holes.

 

 

There might be a second wave and it's not going to be pretty. 

[Cndn 98]

The sky is falling for some people though. I read about an elderly couple sitting in their car outside a grocery store, too afraid to go in to face both the chaos and the increased risk of becoming infected. People, please check on your elderly relatives and neighbours. 
 

But you’re right that we shouldn’t panic or hoard supplies. Stock up but don’t wipe the freaking shelves of everything. I just about lost it on a couple I saw in Walmart the other day pushing around three (!!) packed shopping carts full of all non perishables and toilet paper. This has to be taken very seriously but people need to remain calm and use their brains.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

9 minutes ago, Cndn said:

The sky is falling for some people though. I read about an elderly couple sitting in their car outside a grocery store, too afraid to go in to face both the chaos and the increased risk of becoming infected. People, please check on your elderly relatives and neighbours. 
 

But you’re right that we shouldn’t panic or hoard supplies. Stock up but don’t wipe the freaking shelves of everything. I just about lost it on a couple I saw in Walmart the other day pushing around three (!!) packed shopping carts full of all non perishables and toilet paper. This has to be taken very seriously but people need to remain calm and use their brains.

 

  Fortunately they are enforcing the 2 per customer limit now. Although I have no doubt people will just go back a second time. It should stop the most excessive madness for now. 

[Mike E 11,723]

There are two outcomes that frighten me:

• 1-10% of 350 million USA residents perishing in the next 24 months
• 0.001% to 0.01% USA residents perishing each month. In this scenario most people are on lock down ala what we have in the SF Bay Area, 100% social distance. No dining out, no bars, no movies, no dating, no school, no work at the office, no travel, etc.50% unemployment. I don't believe most people will tolerate it. Mass suicide or mass revolt. The latter leads to social break down, and then a ten percent die off looks optimistic.

I'm hoping a long hot dry summer makes this go the way of SARS by August.

[igoyougoduke 1,604]

49 minutes ago, Mike E said:

There are two outcomes that frighten me:

• 1-10% of 350 million USA residents perishing in the next 24 months
• 0.001% to 0.01% USA residents perishing each month. In this scenario most people are on lock down ala what we have in the SF Bay Area, 100% social distance. No dining out, no bars, no movies, no dating, no school, no work at the office, no travel, etc.50% unemployment. I don't believe most people will tolerate it. Mass suicide or mass revolt. The latter leads to social break down, and then a ten percent die off looks optimistic.

I'm hoping a long hot dry summer makes this go the way of SARS by August.

A mass lockdown needs to happen in the USA. San Francisco bay area just started and the rest of the country will follow soon. 

[Dxc 12]

Dont forget that china wont even bat an eye over killing off a ton of their own people.