About That Mysterious Decline in Flu Cases...

[TBoneTX 45,537]

Would like comments from everyone about this, and the hard data presented.

Quote

About That Mysterious Decline in Flu Cases...

By Michael Thau | Feb 25, 2021 1:00 PM ET

 

What exactly are we to make of the stunning decline in influenza cases we're seeing this season?  [...]

 

Continues here:   https://redstate.com/michael_thau/2021/02/25/about-that-mysterious-decline-in-flu-cases-n332538  

 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

  It's is actually our reaction to Covid that is causing flu to decrease. Specifically, that is wearing masks, distancing, staying home when sick, monitoring symptoms, shields and covered areas in grocery, and increase in sanitization. Also the human petri dish factories known as schools have been on virtual or reduced class sizes, as well as following all the other precautions. Occam's razor here. There is nothing unusual or unexplainable. You implement methods to prevent spread of respiratory viruses and you reduce spreading.

 

  We have seen a decrease in flu testing recently simply because there is none going around. Doctors aren't ordering the test because it wastes patients money. The standard test detects viral antigen in transport media for at least 1 week (verified) and probably longer so it isn't being missed. It's just not there.

 

   I don't want to wear masks forever, but making sick people stay home should become a thing. Our overall sick time is way down this year, and the number one reason is nobody coming in sick coughing sneezing and getting the whole department sick all fall and winter. 

    

[TBoneTX 45,537]

20 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

It's is actually our reaction to Covid that is causing flu to decrease.

This is one quite plausible explanation.  However, the "zero" or negligible number of flu cases is in stark contrast to numbers from previous years (perhaps all the way back to when records were first kept), so other factors would seem to be in play.

[TBoneTX 45,537]

23 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

The standard test detects viral antigen in transport media for at least 1 week (verified) and probably longer so it isn't being missed. It's just not there.

Please elaborate on how (whether) the coronavirus is eclipsing the flu virus.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 hour ago, TBoneTX said:

Please elaborate on how (whether) the coronavirus is eclipsing the flu virus.

 

   It's not consistent with anything I've experienced. Viruses don't compete with each other. As I've said before, it's fairly common for ill people to have multiple pathogenic viruses detected on a respiratory panel. Covid is more infectious than flu, has much wider asymptomatic spread and also more likely to see super spreader events where a single person infects a large number of people. What we are really seeing is that the methods to prevent Covid from spreading actually work much better against influenza and other pathogens that show more symptomatic spread and transmission. 

 

   

[Dashinka 24,598]

5 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   It's not consistent with anything I've experienced. Viruses don't compete with each other. As I've said before, it's fairly common for ill people to have multiple pathogenic viruses detected on a respiratory panel. Covid is more infectious than flu, has much wider asymptomatic spread and also more likely to see super spreader events where a single person infects a large number of people. What we are really seeing is that the methods to prevent Covid from spreading actually work much better against influenza and other pathogens that show more symptomatic spread and transmission. 

 

   

Aren't most flu viruses spread pretty much the same way as Coronaviruses?  I think there are a lot more factors that are in play as to the huge decrease in reported flu cases, but I imagine no one really is interested in finding out the entire story.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

11 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  It's is actually our reaction to Covid that is causing flu to decrease. Specifically, that is wearing masks, distancing, staying home when sick, monitoring symptoms, shields and covered areas in grocery, and increase in sanitization. Also the human petri dish factories known as schools have been on virtual or reduced class sizes, as well as following all the other precautions. Occam's razor here. There is nothing unusual or unexplainable. You implement methods to prevent spread of respiratory viruses and you reduce spreading.

 

  We have seen a decrease in flu testing recently simply because there is none going around. Doctors aren't ordering the test because it wastes patients money. The standard test detects viral antigen in transport media for at least 1 week (verified) and probably longer so it isn't being missed. It's just not there.

 

   I don't want to wear masks forever, but making sick people stay home should become a thing. Our overall sick time is way down this year, and the number one reason is nobody coming in sick coughing sneezing and getting the whole department sick all fall and winter. 

    

exactly what I was going to say and what my MD told me.  Also a lot more people got the flu shot this year.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Aren't most flu viruses spread pretty much the same way as Coronaviruses?  I think there are a lot more factors that are in play as to the huge decrease in reported flu cases, but I imagine no one really is interested in finding out the entire story.

 

    There just isn't much else to the story IMO. Flu virus spreads in a similar way to Covid, except people by the time you become contagious with flu, you already generally have several symptoms, which makes the existing protocols for preventing Covid transmission even more effective.

 

  IN other words I could get covid without symptoms, go in to work and infect others. Unlikely would that same scenario occur with influenza. I would know I had it.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

41 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

exactly what I was going to say and what my MD told me.  Also a lot more people got the flu shot this year.

 

   Actually I thought of that later, but another good point. One more thing that makes it that much more difficult for larger or focal outbreaks of flu to occur. I'm really not sure what the conspiracy is here. It all seems pretty straight forward to me.

[yuna628 9,680]

So this really isn't a complicated thing. And it's proof that good hygiene, control methods, and vaccination rates really do work. And it's also further proof that despite our best efforts, COVID19 is way more infectious than the flu. I did read that there are other viruses that on an uptick for spreading, like rhinoviruses and cold viruses. The same article talked about how the low levels of flu circulating could actually help to eradicate some strains next time around, but may actually make it harder to predict what strains will be back in circulation. The flu isn't completely gone for this cycle and there are even some co-infections. It's concerning when I see these articles because they are not written (or even use sources) from the perspective of someone that are epidemiologists or even virologists. More alarmingly is the source material that's quoted, that makes unusual conclusions that are surely based on the fact they are not experienced in these areas. Asking why the flu is low in circulation is an excellent question, but if the reporter wants to write about the answers to that question, they need to do better research.

Edited February 26, 2021 by yuna628

[millefleur 5,047]

Like the others said, I'm not catching what is "mysterious" about this? Ever since Covid broke out, everyone has been on extreme alert at the slightest cough or sneeze from a passerby, something that prior to Covid, nobody would have batted an eye at. The extreme scrutiny over flu-like symptoms, the mask wearing, the staying home when even slightly sick and other health measures mean that the flu can't just spread around casually like it did before.

[Crtcl Rice Theory 2,432]

2 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

exactly what I was going to say and what my MD told me.  Also a lot more people got the flu shot this year.

I always get the shot, but this year, I was motivated to be first in line. The earlier in the season shots have to have more impact.

[TBoneTX 45,537]

2 hours ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

a lot more people got the flu shot

Charge them all with murder, and ban guns!

[millefleur 5,047]

I wanted to mention that I personally have not had any flu or cold-like symptoms (fever, running nose/congestion, etc) since January 2020. So it seems that mask wearing and distancing and other measures have personally worked for me in terms of staving off any kind of cold or flu. That was also the last time I flew on an airplane, and way back before the mask madness broke out, I opted to wear a mask so as not to infect other people on the plane, haha. I think I freaked everyone out by wearing a mask back then!

 

I've also been using this honey propolis throat spray that I was skeptical about, but it seems to have helped a lot. Whenever I felt my throat was slightly sore, I just hit it with the spray.

[laylalex 7,293]

I have had more than my usual share of colds since March of last year, including one bad enough that I was tested for strep (no, just a cold).

 

On the other hand, no hay fever which was a bonus!