October 2017 I-129 K-1 filers

[Chris J 111]

2 minutes ago, Brittani said:

Best of luck to us.

Most definitely.

[kanderson101 131]

3 hours ago, Tpienkowski said:

I know if you have a legitimate job offer you can submit it in as proof to have your application expedited which I think can get it down to 2 months 

This is interesting to me because I assumed that you weren't allowed to start applying for jobs until you completed the AOS process! Does anyone know when it is acceptable to start actually applying for work? (E.g. after K1 is granted, after AOS, etc ...). I am not worried at all about my fiance finding a job here, but I know he is frustrated with the idea of having to wait to look around for months after he arrives!

[Naes 12,205]

5 minutes ago, kanderson101 said:

This is interesting to me because I assumed that you weren't allowed to start applying for jobs until you completed the AOS process! Does anyone know when it is acceptable to start actually applying for work? (E.g. after K1 is granted, after AOS, etc ...). I am not worried at all about my fiance finding a job here, but I know he is frustrated with the idea of having to wait to look around for months after he arrives!

Not AOS but after ead you can start working.

 

you can apply jobs anytimea but can't start working- and also can't guarantee someone would even interview someone without an EAD. But in that case it's a little different.

 

you can expedite ead if you have a job offer (I've heard it but don't know in detail)

i believe this is about that.

[ChuAni 1,191]

9 hours ago, Michelle_ said:

My fiance never worries about any of it, only the length of time this takes, wish I had his optimism!

Seriously! My Fiancé doesn't even talk about this USCIS et Al. What he says it's '...before the end of 2018, you will be here' and I'm the one counting days, weeks and months.

AHHHHHHHHHHH!😂

[SurferCat 11]

11 hours ago, Kat123 said:

Yes thats the one,i was thinking same thing,i sent only 10 becouse i read somewhere that is enough but we have more to send if they ask...

I only sent 5, but one from each year (2013-2017). I thought it was cute to see us through the years. Probably should have put more, but the guidelines I read said it would be enough...

[SurferCat 11]

9 hours ago, Brittani said:

Ummm...yeah late June early July

I have missed fiancé's birthday every year except one. I wish I wish I wish the POE will be in June - it's possible if the NVC is the normal 2 weeks and I know the Philippines Embassy is supposed to be quick. That's best case scenario. Worst is September, so I'm ready for anything. 

 

I'm actually just happy he won't be arriving in the middle of winter - if he got of the plane in January, he might have just turned around and got right back on it !! 

[Tpienkowski 210]

11 hours ago, JDP91 said:

Hi all, Jan filer lurking here! 

 

Just had a quick question for those of you planning to have separate courthouse weddings and ceremonies... how are you planning that / framing it for your friends and family? I've thought about doing this with my fiancé so he can get his work approval ASAP (and we can have more time to plan it, not subject to the whims of the K1 approval time!), but I can't seem to shake the feeling that it would be somehow awkward. Are you treating it as a vow renewal? Just ignoring the courthouse wedding for the purposes of a ceremony? Something else?

 

Any insight would be much appreciated 

My fiancé and I are looking at the courthouse as a legal thing only, while our family and close friends will know we’re married before our real wedding, most of our guests won’t. We’re doing a ceremony & writing our own vows. We just won’t need to get the marriage certificate done.  

[Tpienkowski 210]

10 hours ago, Chris J said:

Not to be negative, trust me.. But realistically, even with somewhat faster times, early to mid August seems to be more on track and I hope I'm wrong!

If things stayed as slow and tedious as they did for May & June, I would agree. However July & September have fewer cases & USCIS seems to be picking up the pace as well as the NVC waiting time decreasing. If things stay like this I would like to think that POE for October’s by the end of June/ first week of July is feasible 

[EllyNelly 385]

1 hour ago, SurferCat said:

I have missed fiancé's birthday every year except one. I wish I wish I wish the POE will be in June - it's possible if the NVC is the normal 2 weeks and I know the Philippines Embassy is supposed to be quick. That's best case scenario. Worst is September, so I'm ready for anything. 

 

I'm actually just happy he won't be arriving in the middle of winter - if he got of the plane in January, he might have just turned around and got right back on it !! 

Lol mine is the same way!!!! He said he rather ease into the cold... I said oh you just wait 😂 

[SurferCat 11]

Just now, EllyNelly said:

Lol mine is the same way!!!! He said he rather ease into the cold... I said oh you just wait 😂 

lol... me, trying to describe cold weather:

 

"You know how your hands hurt when you hold them in ice for too long? Well, just imagine that feeling without the bucket of ice. Just from standing outside..."

[Chris J 111]

3 minutes ago, Tpienkowski said:

If things stayed as slow and tedious as they did for May & June, I would agree. However July & September have fewer cases & USCIS seems to be picking up the pace as well as the NVC waiting time decreasing. If things stay like this I would like to think that POE for October’s by the end of June/ first week of July is feasible 

So even factoring in the NVC wait time, as well as the Embassy interview wait time? 

[DandY 134]

On 1/21/2018 at 12:53 PM, Daniel P said:

In that time, with a total of 1877, 818 and 243 approved cases (after removing some outliers) respectively:

 

• May had a global mean of 175.25 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 14.06 days.
• June had a global mean of 186.05 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 9.16 days.
• July had a global mean of 193.91 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 3.28 days.

Good stuff.

 

I have not pulled the numbers since early December so I'm not sure how it is going. But a couple of points:

- To get mean numbers like this, you have to remove a large quantity of "outliers"--about 15-20% of cases back when I was calculating. What quantity did you use as "outliers" to reach these numbers?

 

- Back in October when I was using a predictive algorithm to determine June's average wait time (which I calculated at 184-186 days), I was only calculating for 80% of filers. For the last half a year 15-20% have been waiting in excess of 230 days (though I have not pulled numbers in over a month, so this may be decreasing but anecdotally it does not seem to be).

 

- If the outliers are still 15-20% of the total, it means that 1 in 5 to 1 in 6 people will be waiting much longer than the above mean + standard deviation and that is a high enough percentage (and painful enough) that it should be considered. As of now, there are still May petitions not approved.

 

Good luck to all!

[Daniel P 2,022]

25 minutes ago, DandY said:

Good stuff.

 

I have not pulled the numbers since early December so I'm not sure how it is going. But a couple of points:

- To get mean numbers like this, you have to remove a large quantity of "outliers"--about 15-20% of cases back when I was calculating. What quantity did you use as "outliers" to reach these numbers?

 

- Back in October when I was using a predictive algorithm to determine June's average wait time (which I calculated at 184-186 days), I was only calculating for 80% of filers. For the last half a year 15-20% have been waiting in excess of 230 days (though I have not pulled numbers in over a month, so this may be decreasing but anecdotally it does not seem to be).

 

- If the outliers are still 15-20% of the total, it means that 1 in 5 to 1 in 6 people will be waiting much longer than the above mean + standard deviation and that is a high enough percentage (and painful enough) that it should be considered. As of now, there are still May petitions not approved.

 

Good luck to all!

Only already approved and updated cases were considered. From that group there were some outliers, but not too many, definitely less than 15-20%. The criteria I used was ± 2*sd. Please, note that that chart is not intended to predict anything, just to compare under the same conditions every day that received cases in May and June as a way to see what the trend line is.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Daniel P

[DandY 134]

38 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Please, note that that chart is not intended to predict anything, just to compare under the same conditions every day that received cases in May and June as a way to see what the trend line is.

I realize that it was not predictive though some might take it that way. You have all the data you need to create a predictive algorithm if you want since it seems things are back to a "predictable" environment. You can calculate the "velocity" of approvals (how many per week) and the backlog to determine the probable timeline. That was essentially the third version of my algorythm that I used when things "stabilized" (earlier versions did not have enough data so I had to make assumptions and use historical trends). 

 

40 minutes ago, Daniel P said:

Only already approved and updated cases were considered. 

Ah, your dataset was not all petitions but only "touched" petitions (i.e. those in "recieved" status were not considered), thus your "outliers" only includes touched ones. I was saying that 15-20% of May and later filer petitions have been staying in a "received" state for longer than 200 days (and if you hit 200 days it seems like you have a very high probability to be over 230 days though I have not done all the math on this). You have left them out of your data, so the true mean will be worse than your numbers--you essentially have what I was doing--the mean and SD for 80% of the cases, not 100% of the cases. There are MANY "untouched" cases in those time ranges. For instance there are May cases at over 260 days. June cases at over 230 days. Cases that went over the 200 day mark were about 15-20% (I can't remember off top of my head the actual percentage and it is on my home computer) of May cases (I have not looked at June cases in a while so I don't have final figures for the percentage of June that went over 200 days). 

[L and E 305]

I'm driving myself crazy lurking on the june and july threads looking for good news of approvals... I did so well up until January with this wait... Now I feel like I'm clawing my way through each day. Can it just be April already pleeeeeeease