The Official VJ Presidential Election Prediction Thread

[Cyberfx1024 7,978]

I think Trump will win by at least 5 points in the popular vote, but alas I think he will be defeated by the electoral college. I have met a number of people who will not voice their support for him in the open, but they will vote for him.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

This is by far the strangest presidential election I've ever seen, I can't really think of one that comes close, perhaps Bush/Gore, but that was more of a vote counting thing than it was the crazy candidates themselves. If you go by whose supporters are making the most noise, you'd think it would be Trump in a landslide. There is a saying that an empty barrel makes the most noise and I think that's what is taking place with Trump supporters. The majority of voters on both sides seem to be keeping their intentions very low key. There are very few bumper stickers or yard signs for either candidate in my area. I'm fairly confident that Hillary will win big, by a minimum of 5% of the popular vote and possibly close to 10%.

I have to admit I think you are right. I ended up voting for Trump, but darn sure ain't proud enough to put a bumper sticker on my car.

This election is more like an intense football rivalry.

I also think Hillary is going to win, but could be charged before taking office

[Teddy B 17,251]

I have to admit I think you are right. I ended up voting for Trump, but darn sure ain't proud enough to put a bumper sticker on my car.

This election is more like an intense football rivalry.

I also think Hillary is going to win, but could be charged before taking office

Elections seem to be getting more nasty and personal as time goes on. It's much harder to have a level headed conversation and still walk away friends with people who are voting the opposite of whatever you may be voting. I have eliminated all political conversation on fb, it never seems to end well.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

Elections seem to be getting more nasty and personal as time goes on. It's much harder to have a level headed conversation and still walk away friends with people who are voting the opposite of whatever you may be voting. I have eliminated all political conversation on fb, it never seems to end well.

Amen. we have managers here that get in intense political conversations on FB that can get down right nasty. Not smart at all INMHO. I stay away from it other than in a closed group.

When I voted yesterday, I put a picture of me with my just voted sticker. I captioned it "stronger Together" in a messing with sasquatch type of fun moment.

One of my favorites on FB is the one where they ask you to go see how many friends you have that like Trumps page vs Hillary or vice versa, as if this is some kind of indication

Of course I am going to have a lot more friends that like Trump, because it's my demographic. As you may have more friends that like Hillary.

This election kind of reminds me of the GA vs Fla rivalry where we argue who has more players arrested, and one or the other tries to take the Moral high ground.

[N-o-l-a 7,167]

i think the majority of bernie supporters are repulsed by the dnc and are going to be gritting their teeth while voting for hillary. they're not with her, so much as at this point stuck with her. trump is a disaster.

I know a number of people locally who voted for Bernie ( and had to drive 30 minutes just to do it so obviously committed voters) who will not be voting for Clinton. Whether that ends up balancing out the number of Republicans that won't vote for Trump, I don't know.

I agree with the slim margin for Clinton because she will still win the urban areas in a lot of states and carry the electoral votes that way. I'm going with 2.83%.

Edited November 3, 2016 by N-o-l-a

[Eric-Pris 1,602]

I think Trump will win by at least 5 points in the popular vote, but alas I think he will be defeated by the electoral college. I have met a number of people who will not voice their support for him in the open, but they will vote for him.

And he will be pissed, and rightfully so. If this happens, we will have people give up on our electoral system and realize that their vote is meaningless, and probably not waste their time in future elections.

I understand the way our voting system works, but winning the pop vote and losing the election has got to sting to the candidate as well as his suports. And it basically tells people in small states that their vote means less than those in big states. Basically speaking, my NY vote means more than somebody in New Hampshire, and in the country that prides itself on "equality", that's pretty pathetic.

Are there any other countries that don't go by the pop vote when electing their leader?

[N-o-l-a 7,167]

Are there any other countries that don't go by the pop vote when electing their leader?

Off the top of my head I think some prime ministers are elected in a rather roundabout way. Denmark is coming to mind in which the candidate with the most number of votes is not necessarily the PM. I could be wrong but I think the current PM was #3 in terms of percent of votes.

It has some to do with coalitions between smaller parties, etc.

Edited November 3, 2016 by N-o-l-a

[smilesammich 10,727]

I know a number of people locally who voted for Bernie ( and had to drive 30 minutes just to do it so obviously committed voters) who will not be voting for Clinton. Whether that ends up balancing out the number of Republicans that won't vote for Trump, I don't know.

most bernie supporters in know personally have tuned out. they either aren't voting at all or going with jill/gary or woefully voting clinton - mostly out of fear of trump as potus.

[millefleur 5,039]

most bernie supporters in know personally have tuned out. they either aren't voting at all or going with jill/gary or woefully voting clinton - mostly out of fear of trump as potus.

I'm glad to hear that, also glad to hear that people are writing in Bernie. Especially if you live in a non-swing state, there should be zero guilt at all about doing so.

[smilesammich 10,727]

I'm glad to hear that, also glad to hear that people are writing in Bernie. Especially if you live in a non-swing state, there should be zero guilt at all about doing so.

personally not a fan of writing in bernie, as he conceded. but..to each is own.

[N-o-l-a 7,167]

I'm glad to hear that, also glad to hear that people are writing in Bernie. Especially if you live in a non-swing state, there should be zero guilt at all about doing so.

I think the logical choice for most Bernie supporters should be Jill Stein. However, I noticed that some other Bernie supporters had previously voted Libertarian like myself, which is a weird bit of a contradiction in political beliefs, so many of them are returning to vote Libertarian again.

[OriZ 3,157]

Off the top of my head I think some prime ministers are elected in a rather roundabout way. Denmark is coming to mind in which the candidate with the most number of votes is not necessarily the PM. I could be wrong but I think the current PM was #3 in terms of percent of votes.

It has some to do with coalitions between smaller parties, etc.

It is kind of similar with Israel's parliamentary system, the voters don't directly elect the PM...they elect the party, and then President(who is elected by the parliament) decides who will put together the government based on who he thinks has the best chance, and after meeting and talking to all of them. Like 99% of the time he would do the right thing and give it to the head of the biggest party(the one that has the most votes) They have several weeks to negotiate with the other parties and create a government. If they fail, and that has happened as recent as 2009. then the leader of the second biggest party gets a shot at it. In 2009 unfortunately it was Netanyahu who ended up forming a government after Livni was unwilling to give into the Orthodox parties demands. See, that is the problem with that kind of system. You have like 20 parties representing so many different factions and each one has their own demands and it ends up like blackmail. You either give into it and end up with a bloated government putting money in the wrong places, or you don't and then you're not going to have a government.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

I think the logical choice for most Bernie supporters should be Jill Stein. However, I noticed that some other Bernie supporters had previously voted Libertarian like myself, which is a weird bit of a contradiction in political beliefs, so many of them are returning to vote Libertarian again.

I heard bernie say that it is inexcusable that no one is going to jail for the wells fargo fraud thing but people are being put in Prison for smoking weed.

I agree with that 100%. He has some good ideas but his socialist polices would run the country

[OriZ 3,157]

Amen. we have managers here that get in intense political conversations on FB that can get down right nasty. Not smart at all INMHO. I stay away from it other than in a closed group.

When I voted yesterday, I put a picture of me with my just voted sticker. I captioned it "stronger Together" in a messing with sasquatch type of fun moment.

One of my favorites on FB is the one where they ask you to go see how many friends you have that like Trumps page vs Hillary or vice versa, as if this is some kind of indication

Of course I am going to have a lot more friends that like Trump, because it's my demographic. As you may have more friends that like Hillary.

This election kind of reminds me of the GA vs Fla rivalry where we argue who has more players arrested, and one or the other tries to take the Moral high ground.

[Cyberfx1024 7,978]

I heard bernie say that it is inexcusable that no one is going to jail for the wells fargo fraud thing but people are being put in Prison for smoking weed.

I agree with that 100%. He has some good ideas but his socialist polices would run the country

Totally agree with that as well. I like a number of his policies but overall I think he would bad for the country. Just like what we posted a few months back about Gary Johnson he has some good ideas, but the ones I don't agree with are the big No No's in my book. Then what happened with Aleppo made it even worse.

Note: I did change a Gary Johnson voter to a Trump voter over the weekend with reasoning and the Aleppo video.