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OriZ

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  1. LA = Louisiana. Either way, CA was definitely one of the 21 warmer states. It doesn't need to be in the 90s for that...
  2. It's alot harder to find accurate data for that. I think temperature is fine. It's been proven these types of viruses don't do very well in more humid and hot conditions. This, to me, helps confirm it.
  3. today was the first time since Feb 20 that the global 24 hr increase(ex china) was under 10% and to those wondering if warmer weather really helps - I looked at US states(now that there's over 150,000 sick people, it should be a decent sized sample)...and sorted them by the 21 warmest in feb and march, and the 29 coldest in feb and march. the average temps across the warmer ones was 61.2 degrees. the average temps across the colder ones was 43.2 degrees(18 degree difference). 55% of the US population lives in the warmer ones vs 45% in the colder ones. only 34,448 of infected were in the warmer states, which is 0.02% of their population, and 22% of the total cases in the US. 122,242 lived in the colder states, which was 0.08% of their population, and 78% of total confirmed cases. case in point - warm weather definitely slows the spread way down. In May, almost all states, on average, will be 18 degrees warmer than they are now. I think a good idea would be to keep most current restrictions in place till the end of April, and then slowly, and gradually, start to relax them, while getting some help from the weather some people can say well, alot of that is in NY. in that case I ask, despite mardi gra, why isn't LA the same? every state has different unique factors. some, both warmer and colder, are more/less crowded than others, etc. others will say but the US isn't doing enough tests. well, those people are living 2 weeks ago. things have changed. both testing and case samples are large enough now. stats as a whole paint an accurate picture imo
  4. Global rate of increase today down to 10% from yesterday, weekly average at 14%. Italy down to 6%. Overall a good day.
  5. Agreed. But also, even after you start getting more drastic, you can still use a basket of approaches and not expect to just be lazy and drastic and that will do the work for you. By tomorrow the US will surpass both Italy and China, in number of confirmed cases.
  6. US isn't even really taking drastic measures everywhere. My point is, it's not enough to just lock things down. We (and Europe) are borrowing that aspect of it, but not others, which isn't good.
  7. Are you sure about that? my stats say otherwise. All Scandinavian countries actually seem to be handling this really well, on par with countries like HK, SK, Singapore, Taiwan, etc. and nobody can say they have warm weather...
  8. Sweden isn't the only country that's dealing with the virus very well despite not taking drastic measures, that doesn't mean they don't help, but there are definitely more ways, some of which are not implemented in Europe and the US which instead choose to take the drastic measures alone.
  9. The question is what does he consider as peaking? is he talking about reported confirmed cases? Active cases? or actual infection? I think reported cases will keep going higher past 3 weeks from now in the US. That might be around the time actual infection peaks, though.
  10. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/diamond-princess-traces-coronavirus-17-days-ship-emptied/story?id=69755804 seems like really bad news, right? but then ya gotta wonder, if that's the case, maybe a vast majority of us really have already been exposed to this virus, and very few actually got sick
  11. I think for the US, mainly, the worst is yet to come. It also depends on how you define the worst - is it number of cases? number of active cases? rate of change? For the group of countries I posted in the previous page, that have seen their rate of change drop for some time now, I think the worst in many ways is behind them. Sure, numbers will still be going up for a while, but they'll be out of this in 30-45 days. As far as testing goes, I think the fact that half of the US population lives in warmer areas might skew the numbers a bit. Lets look at California for example...relatively speaking, they don't have all that many cases. They also aren't testing alot - having tested less than 0.05% of the population so far. Compare that to NY which has tested almost one half of one percent. Does that mean CA is missing alot of sick people, or maybe the warmer temps just mean they have less people who are infected overall? well, NY, despite having tested many more people, has a ratio of 26.6% confirmed cases to tests. That's one of the highest figures I've seen, anywhere. On the other hand, in California that ratio is only 12%. So, can we guess who is missing more people? nope, no way to know. Maybe in California it's just spreading much slower so less testing is needed..We also know California is taking this very seriously having locked down 40 million people, so why would they not take testing seriously? There is so much about this we still don't know.
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