We just applied for K-1, are we really looking at 26 months?

[Cathi 5,624]

7 hours ago, Nikobe said:

If the USCIS does not meet any of their cycle goals by FY23 (next Sep), Congress will hold them accountable.

Um, no. Congress isn't going to step in, not their job.

[tartpief 12]

26 months I think presupposes the processing rate around the time the YouTube video was published. That was when USCIS processed around 110-120 cases of I-129Fs a day.

The processing rate has improved to average 130-150 a day around now and last week they processed around 190 a day per business day.

I don't know if they can keep up with 170-200 a day processing rate, but if they do, the backlog will not grow.

And current processing time is around 14-15 months.

1) If they keep the 130-150 rate, I think the backlog will slowly increase. But better than 26 months. I think max at 19-20 months ish for people who file now.

2) If they improve the rate to 200 cases a day sometime Sep to Oct 2022, I DO think they will finally steady the backlog and finally start decreasing processing times around Nov to Dec 2022. (15 month peak) 

3) If they start processing 250-300 cases a day, USCIS will be able to keep the ambitious 6 month promise until FY 2023.

I doubt Scenario #3 will happen. But I do think Scenario #2 can happen.

 

But I would go for CR1 instead. I heard that Japan will start opening up sometime this fall to winter. I read from here that people can travel to Japan even now using the fiance status but you will have to have filed an I-129F in this case (which you can withdraw later I think).

 

I do think they will have a turning point later this year and Aug-Sep 2021 filers will have it the worst.

Our NOA1 was on 9/27/2021. I expect NOA2 around Dec 2022-Feb 2023 if things don't change. (15-17 months)

[Nikobe 129]

1 hour ago, Cathi said:

Um, no. Congress isn't going to step in, not their job.

Yes, as much as Trump had the power to slow down processes, the Committee on Homeland Security oversees the activities of the USCIS and can propose legislation to literally force USCIS to meet targets, like they do for emoployment based visas. So yes, it’s part of the job, specifically it is Rep. Bennie Thompson’s job.

[Kai&Mac 11]

58 minutes ago, tartpief said:

26 months I think presupposes the processing rate around the time the YouTube video was published. That was when USCIS processed around 110-120 cases of I-129Fs a day.

The processing rate has improved to average 130-150 a day around now and last week they processed around 190 a day per business day.

I don't know if they can keep up with 170-200 a day processing rate, but if they do, the backlog will not grow.

And current processing time is around 14-15 months.

1) If they keep the 130-150 rate, I think the backlog will slowly increase. But better than 26 months. I think max at 19-20 months ish for people who file now.

2) If they improve the rate to 200 cases a day sometime Sep to Oct 2022, I DO think they will finally steady the backlog and finally start decreasing processing times around Nov to Dec 2022. (15 month peak) 

3) If they start processing 250-300 cases a day, USCIS will be able to keep the ambitious 6 month promise until FY 2023.

I doubt Scenario #3 will happen. But I do think Scenario #2 can happen.

 

But I would go for CR1 instead. I heard that Japan will start opening up sometime this fall to winter. I read from here that people can travel to Japan even now using the fiance status but you will have to have filed an I-129F in this case (which you can withdraw later I think).

 

I do think they will have a turning point later this year and Aug-Sep 2021 filers will have it the worst.

Our NOA1 was on 9/27/2021. I expect NOA2 around Dec 2022-Feb 2023 if things don't change. (15-17 months)

Since we have our petition already filed, it would take us getting married in Utah, and then another meeting in-person. And then a long wait for the CR-1 visa. We are planning a trip to reunite again in the spring. We have been through about 3 years of LDR. A couple of years ago Utah wasn't an option. Now we have finally crossed the milestone of sending in our application since finally being bale to meet again a few months ago when we both internationally travelled to the Philippines. Applying all over again and having another in-person meeting would take months and then the application process would take another 2 years or so to get an approved spousal visa. When instead, if processing times either stay the same or get even just a little better, we can get our interview in summer or fall of 2023 considering that Japan to my knowledge has no interview backlogs thankfully. I totally understand that the spousal visa is better but, I don't think it's good enough to justify another year of a wait potentially.

I am actually considering looking at getting a job in Japan through my company for a while just to see if that is something that they would allow to ease the next 12 - 15 months of LDR for us with the idea of returning home before the interview. I only just thought of this. Would the main concern with that be just about having a foreign earned income? Would I want to return to the U.S. to get a job before the interview to show that I have a domicile and work in the states? It's just an idea really. Most likely if it's not possible or advisable to get temporary work in Japan during the application wait times, I plan on travelling to see her as much as I possibly can next year, 3 times if I can wrestle the PTO out of my company. That would FINALLY be possible considering what some of you have mentioned that Japan has literally just reported that they intend to drop their insane border closures and travel-agency rules. Regardless, we are not going another year without seeing each other. That is for sure. 

I know that spousal visa is better than K-1 for anyone looking at starting the process right now. But we have already begun the process and we are happy not doing it all over again; adding extra months and months of preparation to the then 1.5 to 2 year wait time for the spousal. With any luck, we might only be looking at 12 months from now, and if I can at least visit my fiancé  in 2023, we hopefully won't go another 4 months without seeing each other again.

Is there any leaks or articles sharing information motivating your #2 idea being what you think is likely to happen? I really hope that USCIS makes something happen next year. We would LOVE an interview in 2023.

Edited September 13, 2022 by Kai&Mac

[tartpief 12]

16 minutes ago, Kai&Mac said:

Since we have our petition already filed, it would take us getting married in Utah, and then another meeting in-person. And then a long wait for the CR-1 visa. We are planning a trip to reunite again in the spring. We have been through about 3 years of LDR. A couple of years ago Utah wasn't an option. Now we have finally crossed the milestone of sending in our application since finally being bale to meet again a few months ago when we both internationally travelled to the Philippines. Applying all over again and having another in-person meeting would take months and then the application process would take another 2 years or so to get an approved spousal visa. When instead, if processing times either stay the same or get even just a little better, we can get our interview in summer or fall of 2023 considering that Japan to my knowledge has no interview backlogs thankfully. I totally understand that the spousal visa is better but, I don't think it's good enough to justify another year of a wait potentially.

I am actually considering looking at getting a job in Japan through my company for a while just to see if that is something that they would allow to ease the next 12 - 15 months of LDR for us with the idea of returning home before the interview. I only just thought of this. Would the main concern with that be just about having a foreign earned income? Would I want to return to the U.S. to get a job before the interview to show that I have a domicile and work in the states? It's just an idea really. Most likely if it's not possible or advisable to get temporary work in Japan during the application wait times, I plan on travelling to see her as much as I possibly can next year, 3 times if I can wrestle the PTO out of my company. That would FINALLY be possible considering what some of you have mentioned that Japan has literally just reported that they intend to drop their insane border closures and travel-agency rules. Regardless, we are not going another year without seeing each other. That is for sure. 

I know that spousal visa is better than K-1 for anyone looking at starting the process right now. But we have already begun the process and we are happy not doing it all over again; adding extra months and months of preparation to the then 1.5 to 2 year wait time for the spousal. With any luck, we might only be looking at 12 months from now, and if I can at least visit my fiancé  in 2023, we hopefully won't go another 4 months without seeing each other again.

Is there any leaks or articles sharing information motivating your #2 idea being what you think is likely to happen? I really hope that USCIS makes something happen next year. We would LOVE an interview in 2023.

I don't have any inside info. I just have past data.

My projection is based on daily processing rate from VJ forum. 

USCIS used to process 450-500 cases per week in May 2022 but since mid-August they have been processing more than 650 cases per week. They processed more than 760 cases within 4 business days last week.

I am betting on Scenario #2 because 1) processing rate has been improving for the last few weeks, 2) summer holiday season is over, 3) all h1b visas (higher priority visas because USCIS wants to avoid lawsuits) have been processed for 2022 and we have until April 2023 for the new h1b applications to come in 4) it's been almost 6 months since USCIS announced their plan for decreasing backlogs and I think the new hires should be at least 80% as good as older employees by now (It's not rocket science to process these cases) and 5) the new budget for the new FY is about to kick in from Oct 2022, which I think will help the technical side of it. (e.g., software improvement)

I am not entirely positive because I have had a fair share of hoping and then getting disappointed by USCIS for the delightful 12 months of waiting. They may take another hit for a ridiculous reason and the systemic problem still remains that they are not getting held accountable for the delay so no real motivation for them to work hard.

But, while I don't think USCIS will keep their 6-month promise, I think they will make their last wriggles and kicks on their way to the unfulfillment to the goal for the reasons I wrote above.

[Kai&Mac 11]

1 minute ago, tartpief said:

1) processing rate has been improving for the last few weeks

That is amazing!

Ty for your response! 

[TBoneTX 43,482]

An overly harsh post has been removed.

 

VJ Moderation

[TBoneTX 43,482]

Those rooting for USCIS to improve its processing-rate have noble intentions, but consider the backlog and delays that still exist at the consulates because of local COVID restrictions, lack of staff, and other factors.  Speedy petition approvals don't automatically equate to faster interviews for visas.

[Nikobe 129]

2 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Those rooting for USCIS to improve its processing-rate have noble intentions, but consider the backlog and delays that still exist at the consulates because of local COVID restrictions, lack of staff, and other factors.  Speedy petition approvals don't automatically equate to faster interviews for visas.

I guess everybody is rooting for the USCIS, however, some have lost their trust and hope (and probably rightfully so). The pandemic and the lack of staff as a consequence have led to a focus on literally just meeting targets for the categories where the USCIS may face litigation (EB visas).

Despite all that, I keep my hopes up as long as they hit more than 130 approvals for June and July only on a single day like yesterday (power Mondays will eventually turn into power weeks).

 

Good luck to everyone!

Edited September 13, 2022 by Nikobe

[Tom.Jen 43]

My logic might be off here so please share your thoughts. If they want to push back the processing time to 6 months by the end of september 2023, doesn't that mean that they'll have to process all pending cases they have right now by the end of march 2023?

[DSBeijing 303]

20 hours ago, Nikobe said:

Yes, as much as Trump had the power to slow down processes, the Committee on Homeland Security oversees the activities of the USCIS and can propose legislation to literally force USCIS to meet targets, like they do for emoployment based visas. So yes, it’s part of the job, specifically it is Rep. Bennie Thompson’s job.

Actually Trump didn't slow down anything.

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt

 

If you check historical times, during entire Trump presidency, times were very stable (even during highs of COVID). 

 

Total collapse of USCIS started in 2021, when Trump was out of office.

[DSBeijing 303]

48 minutes ago, DSBeijing said:

Actually Trump didn't slow down anything.

https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt

 

If you check historical times, during entire Trump presidency, times were very stable (even during highs of COVID). 

 

Total collapse of USCIS started in 2021, when Trump was out of office.

To add not defending Trump or anything, but president doesn't have anything to do with situation in USCIS. So nither current or old president has anything to do with oversight of USCIS. But congress  

https://judiciary.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=3145

Edited September 14, 2022 by DSBeijing

[GinoNiña 178]

On 9/13/2022 at 4:14 AM, Tom.Jen said:

My logic might be off here so please share your thoughts. If they want to push back the processing time to 6 months by the end of september 2023, doesn't that mean that they'll have to process all pending cases they have right now by the end of march 2023?

Yes! Your logic is correct. But remember meeting in person is a must have requirement. Most of the countries had a lockdown for most of 2020 and all of 2021. There is a backlog but not so much new applicants. If you go to uscis web, interview are now back to pre Covid for last few months. 
If there is way to find out how many noa1 issued per month, we have a better understanding our waiting period would be like. 
 

[Lynxyonok 316]

On 9/13/2022 at 12:41 AM, tartpief said:

2) If they improve the rate to 200 cases a day sometime Sep to Oct 2022, I DO think they will finally steady the backlog and finally start decreasing processing times around Nov to Dec 2022. (15 month peak) 

3) If they start processing 250-300 cases a day, USCIS will be able to keep the ambitious 6 month promise until FY 2023.

I doubt Scenario #3 will happen. But I do think Scenario #2 can happen.

I wish so badly I could agree with you. But I can't. I'm a May 2022 filer. Out of curiosity, I started looking up how many cases are still outstanding prior to mine. I'm 32 calendar days / about 22 business out, and I'm up to 4,038 I-129F still active. 200 cases a day does not decrease their backlog: it merely keeps it from growing more. Per Lawfully, my projected approval date is already behind 3 weeks since filing.

 

Now, let's consider the following curveball. What if a certain... political... group... were to face a horrendous setback in November and suddenly need lots of new blood to strengthen their ranks? Would we see a magical drop in processing times?

 

 

[FilledesEtoiles 335]

On 9/13/2022 at 1:14 PM, Tom.Jen said:

My logic might be off here so please share your thoughts. If they want to push back the processing time to 6 months by the end of september 2023, doesn't that mean that they'll have to process all pending cases they have right now by the end of march 2023?

I'm curious to see their last stats, they haven't published anything since March. 

On the positive side, they have been training people, they are receiving more budget and are about to start a new fiscal year.

I'm actually more concerned about the stage after the uscis approval, because many embassies are still really backlogged, so even if uscis improve their stats, which I think they will in the end, the embassy stage may take some time, depending on the embassy.