Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Admits He Was Wrong, Drastically Revises Model

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

 

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

 

 

[Dashinka 24,594]

The fact that the Number of Cases figure is highly biased toward those that show some form of symptoms makes it obvious that no one has any idea how big the denominator is.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

No one has any idea about anything, it's just people trying to pretend they do.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

   

     The numbers have been revised down due to containment strategy and a current data for asymptomatic spread.

 

    The estimate for the number of casualties and estimating enough ICU beds were only revised downward after lock down measures were instituted. Lest anyone assume that these figures are a reason to end stay at home measures, they are not. They are taking into account that stay at home measures work to reduce the transmission, reduce the number of hospital beds needed at any given time, and thus ultimately reduce the death rate. Statistically this further supports that social distancing is important to keeping this manageable. I think we already knew that though. 

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

One day of lockdown isn't what changed the model.  The model was flawed from the start.  Experts are not always right,  despite what some folks believe.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 minute ago, Voice of Reason said:

One day of lockdown isn't what changed the model.  The model was flawed from the start.  Experts are not always right,  despite what some folks believe.

 

  He actually says what changed. Perhaps you should consider getting your information from the source instead of from right wing political opinion sites.

 

  You know, it would actually give more credibility when you "call BS" on others if you actually showed some ability to recognize BS in the first place.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

1 minute ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  He actually says what changed. Perhaps you should consider getting your information from the source instead of from right wing political opinion sites.

 

  You know, it would actually give more credibility when you "call BS" on others if you actually showed some ability to recognize BS in the first place.

As I have said elsewhere... let's revisit this in a few weeks.  Let's see what the actual numbers show us,  eh?  Not what the fear-induced guesses are doing still today.

 

If it ends up being millions, I'll have to admit my guesses were wrong.  But I don't think we'll see 2 million cases in the US, let alone anywhere near that many deaths as some have predicted.

[Randyandyuni 2,682]

A model is just that, an educated guess based on a combination of objective and subjective data.

 

forget corona, think weather meterologic predictions are based on models, sometimes dead-on sometimes a swing and a miss. As more dats becomes available the conclusion becomes clearer and clearer. 

 

in this case I’d rather it be overstated and be nothing, think y2k than understated
 

 

[Dashinka 24,594]

Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

By 

Eran Bendavid and 

Jay Bhattacharya

 

If it’s true that the novel coronavirus would kill millions without shelter-in-place orders and quarantines, then the extraordinary measures being carried out in cities and states around the country are surely justified. But there’s little evidence to confirm that premise—and projections of the death toll could plausibly be orders of magnitude too high.

Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-11585088464?redirect=amp#click=https://t.co/atO5AG0NnI

 

[laylalex 7,293]

5 minutes ago, Randyandyuni said:

in this case I’d rather it be overstated and be nothing, think y2k than understated

This is precisely what we keep talking about at home. I think Y2K is a great analogy. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

3 minutes ago, Randyandyuni said:

A model is just that, an educated guess based on a combination of objective and subjective data.

 

forget corona, think weather meterologic predictions are based on models, sometimes dead-on sometimes a swing and a miss. As more dats becomes available the conclusion becomes clearer and clearer. 

 

in this case I’d rather it be overstated and be nothing, think y2k than understated
 

 

 

  True. This particular guy usually get's criticized for having such a broad range as to make the data not helpful. He does revise his model with updated data though. He changed to reflect that there are more asymptomatic carriers than originally thought, but it is also that the R0 value for the virus is so high - it spreads so quickly-  that isolation and distancing works even better than originally expected. The current model is reflecting that we don't have to lock ourselves up for months, we just have to get out of the way for a few weeks and it will miss enough people not to overwhelm the system. Hopefully he is right. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 minutes ago, laylalex said:

This is precisely what we keep talking about at home. I think Y2K is a great analogy. 

 

   Fond memories. The other time we ran out of toilet paper for no real reason.

[90DayFinancier 910]

1 hour ago, Voice of Reason said:

 

 

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

 

 

Tell you what, you believe the experts are wrong and overblowing things, you do you and break that mandates from you local officials and put your family at risk. 

 

 

[yuna628 9,680]

14 minutes ago, laylalex said:

This is precisely what we keep talking about at home. I think Y2K is a great analogy. 

Except while my mom thought it was going to be the end of the world and hearken in some age of demons on earth and us kids that actually understood the situation, could only chuckle as she went to every yard sale endlessly buying used candles and camping equipment and canning veggies for the Y2K apocalypse... we actually do understand fairly well what's going on here and are sadly watching it's consequences in real time. 

 

Also you guys don't know TP hoarding until you saw my grandma's house. Entire attic and basement stairways filled with TP. You'd open the door and it would be a solid wall fortress of TP. You couldn't go up or down the stairs. If she used one roll, she wouldn't replace it out of a pack, she'd have to go out and buy a new one straight away. When it was time for her to sell that house, we couldn't get rid of all the TP.. so we donated it. Often wondered if it had something to do with WWII trauma.

Edited March 26, 2020 by yuna628

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

5 minutes ago, 90DayFinancier said:

Tell you what, you believe the experts are wrong and overblowing things, you do you and break that mandates from you local officials and put your family at risk. 

 

 

While others choose to believe the sky is falling, and the end of the world is nigh.  Yes, it's all about choice, and using logic to view the world around us, eh?  (Also, I have broken zero mandates, why do you assume such?)

 

Sometimes, experts are wrong.  That is all.  Not saying we should dismiss them out of hand, always.  But sometimes, the need arises.

Edited March 26, 2020 by Voice of Reason