Jump to content

Captain Ewok

Admin
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,469

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    5

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Captain Ewok

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Latest Family US Visa Processing Trends from UK, Canada, China, Vietnam, India, Philippines, Mexico, Jamaica, Dominican Republic... Yikes!

    in US Immigration News and Discussion

    Posted

    **Update as of July 9th 2021**

     

    The May US Consulate Processing Stats were just released!  We've updated our tracking and analysis below.  You can always find the latest here:  US Visa Approval Trends at Busiest US Consulates (bottom section).

     

    MEXICO:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is WAY down.  In fact it's down by more than 2x from pre-Covid levels (~200 a month pre-Covid to ~100 a month now).  There is likely to be a significant backlog.
    • IR1 Visa processing is slowly ramping up.  There is likely a significant backlog that will take 8-12 months to clear given the slow down last year.  It appears IR1 processing is taking priority over K1s at the moment.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is following the same trend as IR-1 Visas.

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Ciudad Juarez is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

     

     

    PHILIPPINES:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is WAY down.  In fact it's down by more than 10x from pre-Covid levels (~500 a month pre-Covid to ~50 a month now).  There is likely to be a significant backlog.  Even one month of cases (pre-Covid) would take 10 months to clear at this pace, assuming no new petitions!
    • IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.  There is likely a backlog that will take months to clear given the slow down last year.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is roughly 2x higher than pre-Covid (~100 a month pre-Covid to more than ~200 a month now).  Could folks be preferring the CR-1 route over a K1 visa?  This seems possible given the major backlog on K1 Visas.  For some couples, this could be a legitimate route to living together in the US sooner.

     

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Manila is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

     

     

    CHINA:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is WAY down.  In fact it was at near zero for 12 months.  In April we saw a bump back up at about 50% pre-Covid levels.
    • IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.  There was a huge surge in processing late last year to likely clear the backlog.  Is this why no K1s were worked (all hands on IR1s)?
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) has the same story as IR1s.

     

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Guangzhou is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

     

     

    UNITED KINGDOM:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is WAY down.  In fact it's down by more than 3x from pre-Covid levels (~40 a month pre-Covid to ~120 a month now).  There is likely to be a significant backlog after not approving cases for 9 months!  Clearing the backlog could take 18 months at this rate.
    • IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.  Maybe slightly ahead.  There is likely a backlog that will take several months to clear given the slow down last year.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is mirroring IR1 Visa trends.

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in London is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing for other reasons?  It certainly makes no sense that IR-1's can be back to (roughy) normal but not K1s.  Both are family based... Perhaps resources are being applied elsewhere despite US policy to prioritize reunification of families.  VisaJourney supports shining a bright light on this.  How can we help?

     

    image.png

     

     

    INDIA:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa stopped for 9 months.  It started again in January but there doesn't appear to be any effort to clear the backlog.
    • IR1 Visa and CR1 Visa processing stopped for 5 months but started again last September.  There was a huge push to clear the backlog (seen by the processing spike below)

     

    What are your thoughts?  It looks like K1s are not getting any priority which means longer wait times from petition receipts to interviews -- keeping family apart.

     

    image.png

     

     

    VIETNAM:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is recovering.  It's still below average after a 3 month pause in processing last summer, indicating a backlog.
    • IR1 Visa and CR1 Visa processing times are back to pre-Covid rates.  There was a processing surge that seems to have made a dent in the backlog due to the 3 month pause last summer.
    • IR5 Visa processing had a HUGE surge in April-May showing an all hands on deck effort to process the backlog after 11 months of being stopped.  This is very promising!

     

    The full data is below.  What are your thoughts?

     

    image.png

     

     

    CANADA:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is down.  In fact it's down by more than 2x from pre-Covid levels (~100 a month pre-Covid to ~40 month now).  There is likely to be a significant backlog after the Consulate stopped processing K1s for 6 months.
    • IR1 Visa processing is WAY up.  In fact it's up by 4x pre-Covid levels. It appears the Consulate is trying to clear the IR1 backlog, at the expense of not processing K1s.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is roughly 2x higher than pre-Covid (~50 a month pre-Covid to more than ~100 a month now).  Could folks be preferring the CR-1 route over a K1 visa?  Could this simply be similar to the IR1 surge to clear the backlog (again, at the expense of K1 Visas).

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Montreal is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

     

     

    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is down by 33% or more from pre-Covid levels, with an 8-10 month backlog of cases.
    • IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.= (maybe even higher).  It appears the consulate focused here to reduce backlogs.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is down by 70% from pre-Covid levels, with a 3-4 month backlog of cases.  the priority appears to either be IR-1 Visas or simply the fact that the huge processing delay is moving more couples past the 2 years mark from the time they were married to the approved visa.  Not good, either way.

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Santo Domingo is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

     

     

    JAMAICA:

     

     

    Each month, VisaJourney dives into the official US State Department data and captures the latest Family & US visa approval trends for K1, CR1, IR1 and IR5 visas. This page is updated monthly.

     

    • K1 Visa processing is down by 50% from pre-Covid levels, with an 6 month backlog of cases.
    • IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.  It appears the consulate focused here to reduce backlogs.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is similar to IR1 Visas.
    • IR-5 Visa processing is WAY DOWN with a small uptick in April.  This is after a full 12 months of virtually no cases processed.  This year long backlog will take 8-12 months to clear unless the consulate prioritizes things.  It appears they slowed down on IR-5s to focus on IR/CR-1 visas.

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Kinston is artificially slowing down IR-5 processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

    Heavy handed mods

    in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.

    Posted

    On 7/7/2021 at 7:25 AM, M&D2021 said:

    I've been noticing what seems like some pretty heavy handed overreach by some of the mods on the forum. For instance, here is a recent mod comment closing a thread: "~~Thread locked to further replies. THe OP has been given all the advice members can offer. Do not restart or refer back to this thread in any shape or form~~ "

     

    Who is the mod to say that all of the advice that members can offer has been provided? Other members who have not yet had a chance to respond may have had other thoughts to share. Plus, what is with the empty threat to not refer back to this thread in any shape or form? Is this site meant to be an authoritarian one ruled by a small group of elite mods or an open one, where all members are valued and conversations aren't shut down simply because one mod decides it should be?

     

    While mods should be shutting down illegal or threatening comments, I don't see any value to them shutting down threads or deciding that the discussion is over. Now let's see if the mods will allow discussion of their actions to be discussed or if this thread will be shut down as well.

    What thread?  I would agree that on the surface this seems to be something we can do better on.

    VJ email with link to s.o else timeline

    in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Captain Ewok said:

    I'm working it now.

     

    5 hours ago, green_rabbit said:

    June 27 were blank for EAD and AP and July 4 had the link to someone else's timeline. Before that I think it was normal, but the dates were occasionally really far off (like 6+ months different) what was displayed on my timeline on the site, so that may have been the same problem, but I didn't click the links and the emails are no longer in my trash folder to check.

    Hopefully fixed.  Let me know next week when these go out!  Fixed for both EAD and AP.

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    International Flight Stats from the USA (since Covid), by Region, by Month

    in US Immigration News and Discussion

    Posted

    Have you wondered how affected international travel has been due to Covid?  The Caribbean seems to be recovering (US vacations?) but everything else is still significantly down.  Asia is 6% of pre-Covid levels.  Europe is 9% of pre-Covid levels.  Central and South America are at 50% of pre-Covid levels.  We mined relevant data through March of this year (below).

     

    image.png

     

    image.png

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Unhelpful responses in forums

    in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.

    Posted

    Well, from the top-down... I am sorry.  This is not cool.  We were founded on HELPFULNESS.  This past year has been pretty stressful for all of us -- but that's not excuse.  PM me directly or msg a mod and we will def try to jump in and re-steer attitudes.  Everyone is welcome.  New members especially... after all -- we were all NEW members in this immigration journey (my family included!).

    Post Bugs here!

    in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.

    Posted

    On 6/12/2021 at 7:16 PM, seekingthetruth said:

    Not really a bug....

     

    I use a VPN to access some sites in the U.S.  I am in the Philippines.

     

    Recently, I often can't access VisaJourney.com unless I have VPN on.  Any thoughts on why?

     

    I get this right now if I don't have VPN on:

     

    1546918926_Screenshot(305).thumb.png.bcc4d2852dfac99dbd9c8a1a6d8efa8f.png

    PM me your IP address when you can reach us.

    Post Bugs here!

    in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.

    Posted

    On 6/9/2021 at 8:07 AM, Zowky said:

    I'm trying to update my timeline. Something weird happened and it switched us to being listed as being from Armenia and I'd like to list our N400 updates. Every time I try to hit submit with the updates I get an error saying " Please enter a date in the format YYYY-MM-DD for the "Date of Marriage" field." But I don't have a Date of Marriage Field listed on the timeline page? Is there a way to reset this? Thanks!

    Fixed!

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    USCIS Extends EAD Validity from 1 Years to 2 for K1 Visa Holders and Certain other AOS Filers

    in Working & Traveling During US Immigration

    Posted

     

    U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is updating policy guidance in the USCIS Policy Manual to increase the amount of time a grant of employment authorization is valid for applicants seeking adjustment of status under Section 245 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA).

     

    Background:

     

    When an applicant applies for adjustment of status, he or she may also apply for employment authorization so that the applicant may work in the United States while waiting for a decision on the adjustment application. Currently, USCIS issues adjustment applicants Employment Authorization Documents (EADs) that are valid for 1 year. However, in the interest of reducing the burden on both the agency and the public, because the current median processing time for certain adjustment of status applications is close to or greater than 1 year, USCIS will now issue initial and renewal EADs to adjustment applicants that are valid for 2 years. Replacement EADs will not be affected by this update; USCIS will continue to issue replacement EADs with the same validity dates as the original EAD.

     

    This guidance, contained in Volume 10 of the Policy Manual, is effective immediately. The guidance contained in the Policy Manual is controlling and supersedes any related prior guidance.

     

    Policy Highlights

     

    Updates the validity period for initial and renewal EADs issued to applicants for adjustment of status under INA 245 from 1 year to 2 years.

     

    Citation

     

    Volume 10: Employment Authorization, Part B, Specific Categories, Chapter 4, Adjustment Applicants Under INA 245 [10 USCIS-PM B.4].

     

    Reference:  https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/policy-manual-updates/20210609-EmploymentAuthorization.pdf

    VJ email with link to s.o else timeline

    in Site-Related Discussion - Updates, Ideas, etc.

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Gatekeeper said:

    Hello,

    i received the regular VJ email about estimate approval dates update. But this time, when I click on the estimate date to get more details, I land on...somebody else’s timeline edit!

    here’s below a picture of VJ email I’m referring to, and the timeline I’m landing on (I erased the names of the applicant and beneficiary, but they are definitely not us!)

    looks like there’s a bug there. Can someone in VJ check for potential data breach or other bug?

    thanks

    0BFA9F98-8997-42D9-BD33-A26AB8339BCD.png

    0049D237-2F61-4E7C-80EC-9DCDCADF52D8.jpeg

    That's strange.  Can you forward the email to me at admin "at" visajourney?  I'll take a look.

    Philippines US Marriage Visa Approvals by Month (K1 Visas Way Down, CR1 Visas Up)

    in Philippines

    Posted

    2 hours ago, top_secret said:

     

     

    It looks like the "peak" in C/IR1's pretty much could fill in the "valley" that proceeded it, and it may almost be fair to speculate that USEM could be caught up on spousal visas or at least back to pre-pandemic delays.  But the situation for K1's looks almost catastrophic and surely getting worse with every day that passes.  Since I have CR1 and CR2 in NVC right now I am comforted by the trends but I genuinely feel bad for K1's who I know have been waiting much longer than me. 

    I'd support a virtual or more public protest or PR campaign if the community wants to jump on board.  This is pretty bad.  

    Jamaica US Marriage Visa Approvals by Month (K1 Visas Down, IR1 Visas Up)

    in Caribbean

    Posted

    We've had tons of questions on whether the Kingston US Consulate in the Jamaica has been approving marriage based US Visas (and if so at what rate).  To answer that, we dug into the official US State Department data and plotted visa approvals for K1, CR1 and IR1 visas over the last 2 years. Here is what we found:

     

    • K1 Visa processing is down by 50% from pre-Covid levels, with an 6 month backlog of cases.
    • IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.  It appears the consulate focused here to reduce backlogs.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is similar to IR1 Visas.
    • IR-5 Visa processing is WAY DOWN with a small uptick in April.  This is after a full 12 months of virtually no cases processed.  This year long backlog will take 8-12 months to clear unless the consulate prioritizes things.  It appears they slowed down on IR-5s to focus on IR/CR-1 visas.

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Kinston is artificially slowing down IR-5 processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Dominican Republic US Marriage Visa Approvals by Month (K1 Visas Down, IR1 Visas Up)

    in Caribbean

    Posted

    We've had tons of questions on whether the Santo Domingo US Consulate in the Dominican Republic has been approving marriage based US Visas (and if so at what rate).  To answer that, we dug into the official US State Department data and plotted visa approvals for K1, CR1 and IR1 visas over the last 2 years. Here is what we found:

     

    • K1 Visa processing is down by 33% or more from pre-Covid levels, with an 8-10 month backlog of cases.
    • IR1 Visa processing is back to pre-Covid rates.  It appears the consulate focused here to reduce backlogs.
    • CR1 Visa processing (couples married less than 2 years) is down by 70% from pre-Covid levels, with a 3-4 month backlog of cases.  the priority appears to either be IR-1 Visas or simply the fact that the huge processing delay is moving more couples past the 2 years mark from the time they were married to the approved visa.  Not good, either way.

     

     

    What do you think of the data (below)?  Do you think the US consulate in Santo Domingo is artificially slowing don K1 Visa processing to prioritize other work or for other reasons?

     

    image.png

×
×
  • Create New...