VJ Timeline/Predictions Accuracy?

[JuliaMary 29]

My fiance (from the United Kingdom) and I submitted our i129f on February 4th. NOA1 was 4 days later on February 8th. Visa Journey is predicting our NOA2 will be received between May 21st and May 31st (given no RFE, that is). We were expecting a longer waiting period, and obviously are very happy if this is the case. But I am just wondering if other people have had accuracy with what Visa Journey predicted.

 

Thank you!

[payxibka 10,044]

Dozens of same or similar threads on this topic 

[JuliaMary 29]

2 minutes ago, payxibka said:

Dozens of same or similar threads on this topic 

Rather someone comment on the question I asked based on my own personal situation.

 

Thank you.

[Rob37 5]

The dates on visa journey have been longer than what it took for me and several others recently. The anecdotal trend jas been even fater times to noa2s. I would trust the estimate

[JFH 12,189]

*~*~*non-procedural question moved from “process and procedures” to “progress reports”*~*~*

[Ben&Zian 4,397]

 

1 hour ago, Rob37 said:

The dates on visa journey have been longer than what it took for me and several others recently. The anecdotal trend jas been even fater times to noa2s. I would trust the estimate

 

As mentioned, many many other threads on this question are available. When someone bases their timeline only off of VJ timelines or estimates, they are foolish. VJ is a very small percentage of the actual I-129f petitions going through USCIS. And even these timelines can't be totally accurate as members here do not update their timelines, update them inaccurately, and also some assume the "approval" dates mean for the K-1 itself which is incorrect. Each case is unique, everyone has different variables that can happen to affect the timeline. So when another member says that "there are many other threads about this" it is because they know that no one can specifically answer your question with certainty. Members may come across as "rude" but sometimes the answers you get are just blunt and to the point. Some people don't want that because they expect specifics when none can be given.

[JuliaMary 29]

25 minutes ago, Ben&Zian said:

 

 

As mentioned, many many other threads on this question are available. When someone bases their timeline only off of VJ timelines or estimates, they are foolish. VJ is a very small percentage of the actual I-129f petitions going through USCIS. And even these timelines can't be totally accurate as members here do not update their timelines, update them inaccurately, and also some assume the "approval" dates mean for the K-1 itself which is incorrect. Each case is unique, everyone has different variables that can happen to affect the timeline. So when another member says that "there are many other threads about this" it is because they know that no one can specifically answer your question with certainty. Members may come across as "rude" but sometimes the answers you get are just blunt and to the point. Some people don't want that because they expect specifics when none can be given.

I asked if others felt their predictions were accurate. I’m new to this website, so I guess I apologize for posting a thread that’s already been posted. 

 

I come to this website for support from others who are in the same situation as me, considering it is a rough situation to be in. But it seems to be the opposite.

 

Thank you. 

1 hour ago, Rob37 said:

The dates on visa journey have been longer than what it took for me and several others recently. The anecdotal trend jas been even fater times to noa2s. I would trust the estimate

Thank you.

[geowrian 22,336]

They're generally pretty close, but there is no way to reliably predict when any single case will be processed. The estimate on VJ is based upon data from others in similar situations.

It will always lag behind actual processing - so if things are speeding up, they will predict a later date until there's enough data to correct it. If things are slowing down, the estimate will run short as a result.

 

Generally the process will correct itself faster when things are speeding up vs slowing down (more data coming in faster = faster correction). The system has no way to know if the reason for not seeing approvals is because people just aren't updating their timeline or if it's due to adjudication taking longer.

For example, when I filed the I-129F for my now-wife in 2016, the estimate was around 30 days. It took 4 months because of severe backlogs that started piling up at that time. People who applied a few months after me were estimated at around 4 months, but it took 7+ months because backlogs were still stacking up.

 

But yes, this question is asked almost weekly. The answer is the same.

[JuliaMary 29]

4 minutes ago, geowrian said:

They're generally pretty close, but there is no way to reliably predict when any single case will be processed. The estimate on VJ is based upon data from others in similar situations.

It will always lag behind actual processing - so if things are speeding up, they will predict a later date until there's enough data to correct it. If things are slowing down, the estimate will run short as a result.

 

Generally the process will correct itself faster when things are speeding up vs slowing down (more data coming in faster = faster correction). The system has no way to know if the reason for not seeing approvals is because people just aren't updating their timeline or if it's due to adjudication taking longer.

For example, when I filed the I-129F for my now-wife in 2016, the estimate was around 30 days. It took 4 months because of severe backlogs that started piling up at that time. People who applied a few months after me were estimated at around 4 months, but it took 7+ months because backlogs were still stacking up.

 

But yes, this question is asked almost weekly. The answer is the same.

Makes sense. Thank you. 

[Loren Y 2,741]

My timeline has been within a week of all the estimated time on VJ. Usually a week earlier than expected, I just got my emails for EAD and AP prediction, and it says June 20th, so we will see how accurate those are in a few months.

[Shiran 1,134]

6 hours ago, JuliaMary said:

My fiance (from the United Kingdom) and I submitted our i129f on February 4th. NOA1 was 4 days later on February 8th. Visa Journey is predicting our NOA2 will be received between May 21st and May 31st (given no RFE, that is). We were expecting a longer waiting period, and obviously are very happy if this is the case. Thank you!

There has been a trend recently at USCIS that 129F were getting approved a little bit faster currently then before. it is hard to predict how long this trend will continue, and o assurances it won't reverse itself. For us, personally, we were approved a full month before predicted date on 129F part. Longer than that if I were to take into account initial prediction date (you will notice date VJ predicts changes daily based on the data of others)  

You can do your own research here https://www.visajourney.com/content/k1historical

 

Once again, understand, all VJ timelines are self reported data, they are only as accurate as people manually updating them.

Good luck, hope you hear something soon.

[JuliaMary 29]

3 minutes ago, Shiran said:

There has been a trend recently at USCIS that 129F were getting approved a little bit faster currently then before. it is hard to predict how long this trend will continue, and o assurances it won't reverse itself. For us, personally, we were approved a full month before predicted date on 129F part. Longer than that if I were to take into account initial prediction date (you will notice date VJ predicts changes daily based on the data of others)  

You can do your own research here https://www.visajourney.com/content/k1historical

 

Once again, understand, all VJ timelines are self reported data, they are only as accurate as people manually updating them.

Good luck, hope you hear something soon.

Yeah, we weren’t expecting anything for like at least up to 6 months. If approval happens when VJ aid predicting, that’s less than 4 months! 

 

Its all a waiting game now. Thank you for your reply. 

[myVisaJourney 11]

12 hours ago, JuliaMary said:

I asked if others felt their predictions were accurate. I’m new to this website, so I guess I apologize for posting a thread that’s already been posted. 

 

I come to this website for support from others who are in the same situation as me, considering it is a rough situation to be in. But it seems to be the opposite.

 

Thank you. 

Thank you.

True. Some people on VJ are too rude and intimidating! 

[William&Emily 36]

If you want to see people that may be in a similar situation go to the below thread. I myself am from the UK and filed in February along with others in that thread.

 

[ANYS 6]

20 hours ago, JuliaMary said:

Mi prometido (del Reino Unido) y yo enviamos nuestro i129f el 4 de febrero. NOA1 fue 4 días después, el 8 de febrero. Visa Journey predice que nuestro NOA2 se recibirá entre el 21 de mayo y el 31 de mayo (dado que no hay RFE , es decir). Esperábamos un período de espera más largo, y obviamente estamos muy contentos si este es el caso. Pero me pregunto si otras personas han tenido precisión con lo que predijo Visa Journey.

 

¡Gracias!

we are in the similar case we send our petition on January 4, 2019 and visa journey predicts that in these days they approve