Kat&Joel

4 minutes ago, vocaledge said:

FULL DAY - December 12th 2017

 

12/12/2017	82
Your Current Status: Case Was Approved	20
Your Current Status: Name Was Updated	3
Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed	49
Your Current Status: Request for Initial Evidence Was Mailed	1
Your Current Status: Response To USCIS' Request For Evidence Was Received	9

 

 

WAC1790350273	06/02/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790350695	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790351289	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790351325	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790351326	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790351645	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790351696	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790351880	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790351899	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790351923	06/05/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790353470	06/06/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790353496	06/06/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790353718	06/06/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790354869	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355187	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355208	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355210	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355247	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355267	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355275	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355286	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355289	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355318	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355322	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790355324	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790356575	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790356594	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790356617	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790356621	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790356624	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790356628	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790356660	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790356662	06/08/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790357777	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790357836	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790357940	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790357954	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790357970	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790357984	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790358000	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790358027	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790358032	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790358063	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790358082	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790358098	06/09/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Initial Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359261	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359275	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359528	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359551	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359674	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790359688	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359692	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359730	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359735	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359737	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359742	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359763	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790359775	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359902	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359915	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790359918	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790360090	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790361152	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790362943	06/12/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed
WAC1790363465	06/02/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790363974	6/15/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790364002	6/15/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790364141	6/15/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790372986	06/06/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Case Was Approved
WAC1790373103	06/07/2017	12/12/2017	Your Current Status: Request for Additional Evidence Was Mailed

 

 

Remaining 'virgin cases' as of now:

 

06/01/2017	16
06/02/2017	75
06/05/2017	76
06/06/2017	164
06/07/2017	77
06/08/2017	89
06/09/2017	84
06/12/2017	163
6/13/2017	106
6/14/2017	81
6/15/2017	157
6/16/2017	125
6/19/2017	277
6/20/2017	150
6/21/2017	67
6/22/2017	171
6/23/2017	168
6/26/2017	232
6/27/2017	165
6/28/2017	74
6/29/2017	127
6/30/2017	161

Thanks heaps mate. You are awesome for doing these scans.

My timeline is being pushed back everyday now. I won't hear anything on my holiday break at this stage. Is there any hope to get out of here in March? We can't afford to stay longer than that. We planned as carefully as we could. God almighty please give us July filers some luck. Even if NVC can sort themselves out that would help heaps. I don't want to be in a panic all through the holidays. I am about to get back into WoW to take my mind off this.

I had a massive rant but I erased it.  Just really frustrated and not sure we can do this with the extended wait times.

Just wanted to pop in and say that it's friggin' hot today!

Rollin' the dice. We need a bit of luck to not be completely screwed for our move. Here is to hoping they get everything going for a January NOA2 and end of March departure. Hopefully I don't form an ulcer over Christmas break. Lmao.

5 minutes ago, vocaledge said:

Sorry guys - I JUST got home, and I'm about to start a scan, so expect it to be sometime in the next hour or so - also gonna make myself some food - WHAT A DAY!

 

Hoping for some positive news of lots of cases worked so far today!

Yes!!! I am hoping for a massive list today!! Thanks for all your hardwork!!!!

50 minutes ago, MarksMate said:

59921 patiently waiting. 

Fingers crossed this week. 

Oh im so excited I wanna burst! Haha. 

I get butterflies in my tummy everytime I check the app. Eeek it's gonna be so soon.

Hehe.  I selfishly need yours to be approved soon so I can see what the NVC times are like.  There's not a lot of people from New Zealand itching to get to America at the moment so every New Zealand approval is a big deal for me!!!

8 hours ago, Justmel said:

July 10 received date here. Just wanted to say hello!

Hello!!! I'm a July 14 received date.  We are only 4 days apart!! Wooo!!!

10 minutes ago, NICK & PAULA said:

Whenever they have a system error, I always pray that they're updating and fixing whatever the problem/s is/are so more approvals will appear and more people will be notified. I hope they'll stop keeping us in the dark. I hope they'll stop hurting and giving us heartaches. This is too much already. Please USCIS people! If you're reading this, kindly have a heart for all of us. We know that your work is not easy. We know that you need to adjudicate cases with the best of your judgement. But please, look at those pictures..Look at those evidences.. Look at the reflection of happiness radiating on those evidences from us and see how genuine and true the love that we have for our Fiances/Fiancees  - vice versa. Love should never be hard. You (USCIS) is serving as the bridge for all of us. I hope ya'll believe in love. I hope you'll let us cross that bridge going to the arms of our significant others. Please...let us go home.

Beautiful and well put!!! Thank you   I'm hoping for mass updates as well.  I think that 6 months is a long enough wait for anybody.

1 hour ago, marinapoli said:

Hey, for everyone who's already thinking about the moving, this may be helpful - I ordered some vacuum bags from China (ali express)  (I live in Brazil and it takes aroud 2 months to arrive, so this is the time to order),  it was cheaper than amazon, target or home depot and these were super helpful when I moved countries another time, I was able to put more clothes in my suitcase, and also my fiance will be visiting me in February so I will already have a suitcase for him to take to the US and the bags will help him store everything until I move in. 

 

Thanks @marinapoli.  That's really good advice.  I think we all should be thinking about the move coming up because it's getting closer to our time now.  

We got some progress today!!!

There's still time for USCIS to get it together and get through June.  I'm very happy to see some approvals coming through.  Here's to hoping that heaps more approvals come through in the next few weeks!!!!!! GOOOOO USCIS!!!!! GET 'ER DOOOOOOOOOOOONNNEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!! WOOOOOOOOOOHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  

3 minutes ago, Naes said:

Yes yes Auckland is extremely good news!! 

 

January approval, fast NVC!! I am sticking to that with you ❤️

 

Please try try not to stress at least till January. Don't get sick there or something, stress weakens the body. Stay healthy！！

Haha I know about the stress thing.  I'm gonna be more pro-active about keeping it under control though as you're right, getting sick would be crappy.  Some time off work should be very very helpful.  Only 3 weeks to go until vacation time.  Maybe they'll have started July by then.  That'd be raaaaaddd!!!!

Just now, Naes said:

I'm sticking to that with you! 

And NVC will recover by then!!! 

 

Did you check how how long it takes to get an interview in average for your embassy?

I'm at the Auckland embassy and they are suuuuper quick.  So that's a good sign.  I'm waiting to see the process for some recently approved folks so I can get a better idea of how long it's currently taking.  Shouldn't be too bad.  I had a bit of a breakdown at work this morning due to the chaos and frustration of my job but also because of this process.  On the bright side, I get a whole bunch of time off over Christmas so that'll be super sweet!!  I'm really hoping we can get out of here in March because I don't know how long I can hold out at work anymore.  I'm going back to being positive about things now though.  I reckon there's still a chance for an early January approval.  We are so close but so far away.  I think January will also get here way quicker than expected.  

16 hours ago, Zjazzy said:

Hello July Filers, It looks like the July interview times will be around Feb  2018, so I was wondering about the taxes for 2017. I think is a good idea to start filing the taxes early in Jan. 

Yes.  The interviews for July filers will be in February.  I'm sticking to that!!!

Hold up hold up.  Does it take another 6 weeks for the NVC part after we get our NOA2?  Because that's going to completely blow everything out for us.  I don't know if we can wait that long.  We won't be able to afford to move...

9 hours ago, Daniel P said:

Hi guys one again.

 

After uncountable hours trying to figure out how to do this, and some more actually doing it, I think I finally found a way to see, day by day, how the processing time from Received to Approved evolves over the time. It's been 3 long days, but I'm on vacation this week and finally got the time to finish it.

 

Below is a graph with the average processing time of all cases received every considered day and approved within the next 173 days from each of those days.

 

Example: For all cases received the 3rd of April I calculated the average processing time of all of those cases approved within the next 173 days from that day; from 04/03/17 to 09/23/17. The same goes for all cases received the 4th of April, but only considering approvals up to 09/24/17, and so on.

 

The explanation for it being 173 days is that that is the amount of days from the last day considered 05/31/17 up to the last scan available 11/20/17.

 

It was important to do it this way because this time I'm comparing all days individually, hence they had to be considered under the same circumstances. As in my previous graphs, only updated cases could be used for these results.

 

The interpretation is pretty easy and I think it gives a very good idea of (at last!) what the tendency is being (which was the whole purpose of going into so much trouble ). I will only say that April has some pretty inconsistent days for which I don't have a clear answer (maybe they assigned each of those days' cases to faster or slower adjudicators?? I simply don't know). Also the original April file had to be manually modified (thanks again to Naes!), although I'm not sure that had anything to do with it.

 

As for May, it is much consistent and appears to show some stabilization after that nightmarish growth, which hopefully means what we all want to see, the first beams of light at the end of the tunnel.

 

 

A hero of our time!!  Well done!!! Thank you!!! I love your graphs.  It really helps me get a solid idea of what's happening.  Things are starting to get a little bit scary for me because we are going to be in a reaaaaally sticky situation if we don't get out of here by March.  I dunno what are back up plan is but if things don't start picking up or stabilising, I'm gonna start panicking.  I'm eager to see what the graph will look like with some additional data.  

45 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

Here again all credits go to "The Big 3" ! 

 

NOTE: I only have May numbers from last night @Naes, and midday scan from @Shoegum, so numbers can only be better.   

 

To ease you into this, we are looking good . So far 5 of 22 days in June have been touched. May weeks are dwindling, almost done, there is no more room for adjudicators to hide, but to go June. Here go the weeks first, as they are most important:

 

1st week  - 102 cases left

2nd week - 135 cases left

3rd week  - 270 cases left

4th week   - 515 cases left

The Hump- 383 cases left

1st week  - 825 cases left

2nd week - 775 cases to go

3rd week  - 836 cases to go

Last week - 763 cases to go

 

 

May 30th with  216

May 31st with   39 

June  1st with   27

June 2nd with  101

------------------------------

Week Total :     383

 

May 30th now looks big pedestrian with 216 cases, but keep in mind that 2 weeks ago it had 422 cases, so it is almost half done at 48.8% (it is over 50% at this point we just didn't get the scan). Next 2 days are a joke with 66 cases combined, and the last day in that week is at the magic line, about to dip into double digits. With 3 days to go, June 2nd should be at about 65-75 mark on Friday, and done completely by mid next week. Today June 2nd had 4 approvals and 5 RFE's, so rest of the way this week should be all approvals. 

 

And next is the first full week of June that is melting before our eyes . Big show on what is to come! It still counts relatively high, robust 825 cases, of total 975 it had 7 working days ago.  Days are as follows:

 

June 5th  -  149

June 6th  -   229

June 7th  -   116 (untouched)

June 8th  -   184 

June 9th  -   147 (untouched)

---------------------------

Total  -  825  cases untouched

 

Here you have a totally different landscape than 10 days ago, Monday the 5th has gone from 2nd highest day in two months combined, all the way down to 12th highest day of 44 days total. Now that my friends is a freefall ! And than today, that same day gets answered loud and clear - 10 cases touched, all 10 cases RFE's. Following is as per the established pattern, a bonanza of approvals. Sooooo....

 

@DuaneAnna 

@tifmiklos 

@Hadassah123 

@GarryAndMarie

@Allen&Ann 

@britishandusa 

@Ivan D 

@Nefertari

@viNs

@IshTre

 

......... if you guys survived today without the RFE, you should be at the exit door, with tears in your eyes, saying goodbye to this semi sane family you made here, thanks to your journey. Some will go before others, first ones celebrate hard, ones that have to wait another day or few just cool and graceful, it's real and it is here, about to be you. 

 

June 8th thoroughly surprised me, I thought Thursday, but I thought June 7th would go Wednesday. So I may get ladder one to be a go, but now I'm thinking one group will do 7th and 8th, and other will start 9th and 12th Thursday with RFE's, Friday with approvals, and following week - bonanza !   

 

Party on Squirrel!!! Do you think things are picking up a bit at this stage?  I sure hope they are.  I'm gettin' scared.

My fiance and I are both starting to really lose our sanity over this.  I am hoping that the next month or so will go by fast enough that it won't seem like an eternity.  Lord have mercy I am hoping there's no more delays and that they can start catching up.  If life was a simulation I'd be really pissed off at the person controlling the game right now.

1 hour ago, Daniel P said:

Hi guys. After my last post, I started to think about a way to compare different months when it comes to length of time from Received to Approved, to try to identify a possible tendency over the months.

 

The first problem was to actually get the data from April, that had to be old enough so that the cases in it hadn't been touched yet. Unfortunately the oldest raw data @Naes had wasn't as old, but she did a wonderful job modifying it so that it showed the most probable received dates for all already touched cases. Believe me when I say that wasn't a job of a few minutes, so I can't thank her enough!

 

After that, the next problem was to find a way to compare April and May, something that initially wasn't possible since the "conditions" for both months weren't the same. Why? Simply because April had had "more time" to accumulate cases with longer approval times (long cases that May will also eventually have, but it's just to soon for them to show up).

 

So I thought, ok, in order to be able to compare them let's give them the same amount of time. From the last day that May received cases (05/31/17) up to the day of the last scan (11/20/17), a number of 173 days passed. Since the last day of April to receive cases was 04/28/17, for this month I only considered cases approved within the next 173 days (up to 10/18/17), just like May.

 

In other words, what I'm trying to do here is to compare what happened within the next 173 days after that last day of both, April and May, received cases.

 

And the graph below is what I came up with.

 

In that time, with a total of 1412 and 1522 approved cases respectively:

 

• April had a global mean of 153.12 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 15.08 days.
• May had a global mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a standard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

As you guys can see, the tendency clearly worsened from April to May, with less disperse lengths of time for the latter, which is good because that means more people get their cases approved in "around" the same time, but with higher lenghts of time for those cases to actually get approved.

 

I'm hoping to see how that tendency improves from June on, we'll just have to wait a little for the next report 

 

 

I have some twisted hope that July filers could have a chance at a 160 to 170 day approval. More poor fiance is so stressed. He reckons we will be here until April. I gotta keep up hope. These grapsh you have made Daniel are incredibly helpful. I can't wait to see one for June.

I am starting to get really aggro about the dates constantly being pushed back.  I'm trying to keep a positive attitude but they keep slowing things down further and further.  I really need to be out of New Zealand by March or there's going to start being some major issues for us.  Here's hoping that they somehow get it together in the next couple months.  I feel it's really unfair on all of us for them to continuously lengthen the process.

8 hours ago, Daniel P said:

Thanks! What tracker thing? 

The Ticker Factory image that you have in your signature

3 hours ago, Daniel P said:

So... this is the distribution and the Gauss curve for the number of days between received and approved cases, for the month of May 2017 (as to 11/20/2017). I left out seven cases that seemed to be expedites. Additionally, I only considered received cases, meaning I also left out some cases that had already been touched, like Date of Birth or Name updated cases. The remaining cases (and big majority) used for this calculations made a total of 1522.

 

Those 1522 cases gave a mean of 169.95 days from Received to Approval date, with a stardard deviation of 9.46 days.

 

That curve below is actually very useful to get some interesting probabilities. If we assumed that June is going to follow a not very different pattern than the previous month, we could say that, for example:

• The probability for a June filer to be approved in less than 160 days is only 14.65%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved between 160 and 180 days is 70.95%.
• That the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 170 days is (an astonishing) 49.78%.
• Or that the probability for a June filer to be approved in more than 180 days is (a still astonishing) 29.67%.

 

Hopefully the processing times will lower in the next months and we'll see how that curve will slowly be moving to the left and those percentages lower or raise in our favor. Fingers crossed!! 

 

 

Incredible work!! Good to see another number cruncher around!! Love it!! BTW I had to steal your tracker thing because I thought it was super neat.