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Covid Vs US Average cause of death

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
Timeline

Regarding flu shots, I want to be a proponent, not an exponent.

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Israel
Timeline
10 hours ago, Dashinka said:

It wasn’t clear, are they only using identified cases as the denominator?

They're only looking at mortality

 

https://www.euromomo.eu/methods/rationale.html

09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline
5 hours ago, OriZ said:

They're only looking at mortality

 

https://www.euromomo.eu/methods/rationale.html

Yes, I understand that, my question was if their mortality numbers were based only on identified cases, or were they trying to add some factor for unidentified cases?

Visa Received : 2014-04-04 (K1 - see timeline for details)

US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

I-751 Approved:  2018-05-04

N400 Filed:  2018-01-13

N400 Biometrics:  2018-02-22

N400 Interview:  2018-04-10

N400 Approved:  2018-04-10

Oath Ceremony:  2018-06-11 - DONE!!!!!!!

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Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Israel
Timeline
6 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Yes, I understand that, my question was if their mortality numbers were based only on identified cases, or were they trying to add some factor for unidentified cases?

No it's just based on official numbers, they're not making any of their own figures up

09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline
2 minutes ago, OriZ said:

No it's just based on official numbers, they're not making any of their own figures up

So not very accurate based on what is being found out with the antibody testing.

Visa Received : 2014-04-04 (K1 - see timeline for details)

US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

I-751 Approved:  2018-05-04

N400 Filed:  2018-01-13

N400 Biometrics:  2018-02-22

N400 Interview:  2018-04-10

N400 Approved:  2018-04-10

Oath Ceremony:  2018-06-11 - DONE!!!!!!!

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Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Israel
Timeline
1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

So not very accurate based on what is being found out with the antibody testing.

it's showing number of deaths, not % mortality. What does it have to do with how many people are actually sick?

09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

So not very accurate based on what is being found out with the antibody testing.

 

    When I used to work in research, we sometimes heard an expression - statistics don't really matter that much until you become one. I think we always knew the mortality figures as a percentage were overstated. That doesn't change that the actual number of people who died from this is still significant. It could have been much higher if we didn't take some of the measures we did, and if we make the wrong decisions going forward, it still could be.

 

995507-quote-moderation-in-all-things-an

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline
9 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    When I used to work in research, we sometimes heard an expression - statistics don't really matter that much until you become one. I think we always knew the mortality figures as a percentage were overstated. That doesn't change that the actual number of people who died from this is still significant. It could have been much higher if we didn't take some of the measures we did, and if we make the wrong decisions going forward, it still could be.

 

No one is saying the people that have died are or were significant.  I was simply asking the question about their methodology which was not very clear.  Btw, life is risk, I guess we should just shelter in place in perpetuity.

Visa Received : 2014-04-04 (K1 - see timeline for details)

US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

I-751 Approved:  2018-05-04

N400 Filed:  2018-01-13

N400 Biometrics:  2018-02-22

N400 Interview:  2018-04-10

N400 Approved:  2018-04-10

Oath Ceremony:  2018-06-11 - DONE!!!!!!!

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5 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

No one is saying the people that have died are or were significant.  I was simply asking the question about their methodology which was not very clear.  Btw, life is risk, I guess we should just shelter in place in perpetuity.

 

  Has someone suggested we should shelter in place in perpetuity? Many states are starting to ease restrictions now. We go from mandatory stay home to voluntary stay home next week and several businesses are allowed to resume operation. Just what they said was going to happen when transmission rates started to drop.

995507-quote-moderation-in-all-things-an

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline
1 minute ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  Has someone suggested we should shelter in place in perpetuity? Many states are starting to ease restrictions now. We go from mandatory stay home to voluntary stay home next week and several businesses are allowed to resume operation. Just what they said was going to happen when transmission rates started to drop.

Well, the CDC is suggesting round 2 will come at us worse, so I am assuming some governors may that that as a reason to keep everything in place.  My governor is already suggesting extending her EOs through most of May.  I will agree, the stay at home orders have had the impact that was intended, to reduce the stress on the medical system like what happened in Italy, now we are hearing in MI the orders cannot be lifted because someone may die.  Kind of a changing narrative at least in MI.  One of our big hospital systems here in MI just announced laying of 2500, and permanently eliminating 450 positions.

Visa Received : 2014-04-04 (K1 - see timeline for details)

US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

I-751 Approved:  2018-05-04

N400 Filed:  2018-01-13

N400 Biometrics:  2018-02-22

N400 Interview:  2018-04-10

N400 Approved:  2018-04-10

Oath Ceremony:  2018-06-11 - DONE!!!!!!!

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3 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Well, the CDC is suggesting round 2 will come at us worse, so I am assuming some governors may that that as a reason to keep everything in place.  My governor is already suggesting extending her EOs through most of May.  I will agree, the stay at home orders have had the impact that was intended, to reduce the stress on the medical system like what happened in Italy, now we are hearing in MI the orders cannot be lifted because someone may die.  Kind of a changing narrative at least in MI.  One of our big hospital systems here in MI just announced laying of 2500, and permanently eliminating 450 positions.

 

     It probably is a heads up that even when they ease restrictions and things return to normal, the possibility exists that they may also return to stricter measures again if the situation arises. It's not a given. They may have effective preventative or treatment measures in place by fall that negate the need to do that.

995507-quote-moderation-in-all-things-an

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Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Israel
Timeline
9 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

     It probably is a heads up that even when they ease restrictions and things return to normal, the possibility exists that they may also return to stricter measures again if the situation arises. It's not a given. They may have effective preventative or treatment measures in place by fall that negate the need to do that.

I think there's a much higher likelihood of better treatment within a few months, than anything preventative. They seem to be making progress with remdesivir and others, that I guess the best we can hope for right now is that it becomes a situation where it's like ok alot of people might get sick, but we have a decent way to treat them now, so we don't have to shut everything down.

09/14/2012: Sent I-130
10/04/2012: NOA1 Received
12/11/2012: NOA2 Received
12/18/2012: NVC Received Case
01/08/2013: Received Case Number/IIN; DS-3032/I-864 Bill
01/08/2013: DS-3032 Sent
01/18/2013: DS-3032 Accepted; Received IV Bill
01/23/2013: Paid I-864 Bill; Paid IV Bill
02/05/2013: IV Package Sent
02/18/2013: AOS Package Sent
03/22/2013: Case complete
05/06/2013: Interview Scheduled

06/05/2013: Visa issued!

06/28/2013: VISA RECEIVED

07/09/2013: POE - EWR. Went super fast and easy. 5 minutes of waiting and then just a signature and finger print.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

05/06/2016: One month late - overnighted form N-400.

06/01/2016: Original Biometrics appointment, had to reschedule due to being away.

07/01/2016: Biometrics Completed.

08/17/2016: Interview scheduled & approved.

09/16/2016: Scheduled oath ceremony.

09/16/2016: THE END - 4 year long process all done!

 

 

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