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Tracking site suggests White House model is overestimating coronavirus hospitalizations

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
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Interesting.

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Tracking site suggests White House model is overestimating coronavirus hospitalizations

by Daniel Payne
Last Updated: April 5, 2020 - 9:05am

 

A web site that tracks actual hospital beds in use suggests the model used by top White House health officials to project the trajectory of the coronavirus has so far overestimated the number of Americans hospitalized by the disease by tens of thousands. 

 

Those projections, popularly known as [...]

 

Continues here: https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/white-houses-coronavirus-model-has-overestimated-tens-thousands  

 

 

 

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline

Maybe it's just me but I think it's better to overestimate than underestimate....better be safe than sorry, that's my motto. We're in uncharted territory here, but I do think we need to bring back the Spanish flu style open-air tents, as fresh air really does seem to help people based on the historic data from that time:

 

Very interesting scientific study on ventilation (as in open fresh air, not the machine) and sunlight: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4504358/

 

Influenza-patients-getting-sunlight-at-t

 

More about it here: https://medium.com/@ra.hobday/coronavirus-and-the-sun-a-lesson-from-the-1918-influenza-pandemic-509151dc8065

 

Seems like open-air style tent hospitals would be cheap and doable, we should learn from history. I know coronavirus isn't the flu but there are similarities worth considering. The stuffy, dead air of hospitals makes me sick just thinking about it....let the fresh air in, I say. 

Edited by millefleur

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*NOTE: The USCIS Field Office in Moscow is now CLOSED as of February 28th, 2019.

 

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12-Apr-2019: Extension letter arrives via mail

19-Apr-2019: Biometrics letter arrives via mail

30-Apr-2019: Biometrics appointment at local office

26-Jun-2019: Case ready to be scheduled for interview 

04-Sep-2019: Interview was scheduled - letter to arrive in mail

09-Sep-2019: Interview letter arrived in the mail! ✉️

17-Oct-2019: Interview scheduled @ local USCIS  

18-Oct-2019: Interview cancelled & notice ordered*

18-Oct-2019: Case was approved! 🎉

22-Oct-2019: Card was mailed to me 📨

23-Oct-2019: Card was picked by USPS 

25-Oct-2019: 10 year GC Card received in mail 📬

 

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15-Oct-2020: Received generic response to non-receipt inquiry, see full response here

10-Feb-2021: Contacted senator's office for help with USCIS

12-Feb-2021: Received canned response from senator's office that case is within processing time 😡

16-Feb-2021: Contacted other senator's office for help with USCIS - still no biometrics

19-Feb-2021: Biometrics reuse notice - canned response from other senator's office 🌐

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12-May-2021: Oath Ceremony re-scheduled for June 3rd, then de-scheduled same day 😡 

25-May-2021: New Oath Ceremony notice was mailed

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
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Fascinating articles -- read both straight through.

 

This open-air setup would be resisted strongly by some or many:

"We can't allow these people to be out where the wind can carry their infection to others!"

"We have no open space, so we must transport them for many miles!"

And similar.

 

However, given the current desperation and the strong observational correlations of the past, why not?

Edited by TBoneTX

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
Timeline
10 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

Fascinating articles -- read both straight through.

 

This open-air setup would be resisted strongly by some or many:

"We can't allow these people to be out where the wind can carry their infection to others!"

"We have no open space, so we must transport them for many miles!"

And similar.

 

However, given the current desperation and the strong observational correlations of the past, why not?

Yeah, exactly, I know it seems counter intuitive to just let the infected people outside, but it really does seem to help. It's hard to explain the exact science of why it works, but my hunch is a combo of the sun exposure killing the virus and the fresh air reducing the viral load around the patient (and caretakers too), also fresh air is not stagnant, it is dynamic and that probably helps with breathing too.

 

I hope people will start to get more creative with solutions instead of immediately bemoaning and whining that there won't be enough beds, machines, etc....all that negativity really helps no one and we can actually learn from the past in the case of the Spanish flu.

🇷🇺 CR-1 via DCF (Dec 2016-Jun 2017) & I-751 ROC (Apr 2019-Oct 2019)🌹

Spoiler

Info about my DCF Moscow* experience here and here

26-Jul-2016: Married abroad in Russia 👩‍❤️‍👨 See guide here
21-Dec-2016: I-130 filed at Moscow USCIS field office*
29-Dec-2016: I-130 approved! Yay! 🎊 

17-Jan-2017: Case number received

21-Mar-2017: Medical Exam completed

24-Mar-2017: Interview at Embassy - approved! 🎉

29-Mar-2017: CR-1 Visa received (via mail)

02-Apr-2017: USCIS Immigrant (GC) Fee paid

28-Jun-2017: Port of Entry @ PDX 🛩️

21-Jul-2017: No SSN after three weeks; applied in person at the SSA

22-Jul-2017: GC arrived in the mail 📬

31-Jul-2017: SSN arrived via mail, hurrah!

 

*NOTE: The USCIS Field Office in Moscow is now CLOSED as of February 28th, 2019.

 

Removal of Conditions - MSC Service Center

 28-Jun-2019: Conditional GC expires

30-Mar-2019: Eligible to apply for ROC

01-Apr-2019: ROC in the mail to Phoenix AZ lockbox! 📫

03-Apr-2019: ROC packet delivered to lockbox

09-Apr-2019: USCIS cashed check

09-Apr-2019: Case number received via text - MSC 📲

12-Apr-2019: Extension letter arrives via mail

19-Apr-2019: Biometrics letter arrives via mail

30-Apr-2019: Biometrics appointment at local office

26-Jun-2019: Case ready to be scheduled for interview 

04-Sep-2019: Interview was scheduled - letter to arrive in mail

09-Sep-2019: Interview letter arrived in the mail! ✉️

17-Oct-2019: Interview scheduled @ local USCIS  

18-Oct-2019: Interview cancelled & notice ordered*

18-Oct-2019: Case was approved! 🎉

22-Oct-2019: Card was mailed to me 📨

23-Oct-2019: Card was picked by USPS 

25-Oct-2019: 10 year GC Card received in mail 📬

 

*I don't understand this status because we DID have an interview!

 

🇺🇸 N-400 Application for Naturalization (Apr 2020-Jun 2021) 🛂

Spoiler

Filed during Covid-19 & moved states 1 month after filing

30-Mar-2020: N-400 early filing window opens!

01-Apr-2020: Filed N-400 online 💻 

02-Apr-2020: NOA 1 - Receipt No. received online 📃

07-Apr-2020: NOA 1 - Receipt No. received via mail

05-May-2020: Moved to another state, filed AR-11 online

05-May-2020: Application transferred to another USCIS field office for review ➡️

15-May-2020: AR-11 request to change address completed

16-Jul-2020: Filed non-receipt inquiry due to never getting confirmation that case was transferred to new field office

15-Oct-2020: Received generic response to non-receipt inquiry, see full response here

10-Feb-2021: Contacted senator's office for help with USCIS

12-Feb-2021: Received canned response from senator's office that case is within processing time 😡

16-Feb-2021: Contacted other senator's office for help with USCIS - still no biometrics

19-Feb-2021: Biometrics reuse notice - canned response from other senator's office 🌐

23-Feb-2021: Interview scheduled - notice to come in the mail

25-Feb-2021: Biometrics reuse notice arrives via mail

01-Mar-2021: Interview notice letter arrives via mail  ✉️ 

29-Mar-2021: Passed interview at local office! Oath Ceremony to be scheduled

13-Apr-2021: Oath Ceremony notice was mailed

04-May-2021: Oath Ceremony scheduled 🎆 Unable to attend due to illness

04-May-2021: Mailed request to reschedule Oath to local office

05-May-2021: "You did not attend your Oath Ceremony" - notice to come in the mail

06-May-2021: Oath Ceremony will be scheduled, date TBA

12-May-2021: Oath Ceremony re-scheduled for June 3rd, then de-scheduled same day 😡 

25-May-2021: New Oath Ceremony notice was mailed

16-Jun-2021: Oath Ceremony scheduled 🎆 - DONE!!

17-Jun-2021: Certificate of Naturalization issued

 

🎆 Members new and old: don't forget to fill in your VJ timeline! 🎇 https://www.visajourney.com/timeline/

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Filed: IR-1/CR-1 Visa Country: Israel
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20 minutes ago, millefleur said:

Yeah, exactly, I know it seems counter intuitive to just let the infected people outside, but it really does seem to help. It's hard to explain the exact science of why it works, but my hunch is a combo of the sun exposure killing the virus and the fresh air reducing the viral load around the patient (and caretakers too), also fresh air is not stagnant, it is dynamic and that probably helps with breathing too.

 

I hope people will start to get more creative with solutions instead of immediately bemoaning and whining that there won't be enough beds, machines, etc....all that negativity really helps no one and we can actually learn from the past in the case of the Spanish flu.

I definitely believe in this.

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Filed: AOS (pnd) Country: Philippines
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Unfortunately science is agonizingly slow in times like this. I'd like to think it is because of widespread use of hydroxychloroquine, but it's too soon to say. I could also be just because the model doesn't take into account various factors like localized running out of hospital beds, even running out of uninfected doctors and nurses, as is happening in Philippines.

 

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/results-from-a-controlled-trial-of-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid19

 

This one sounds extremely promising as well:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011?via%3Dihub

And it's already in widespread use for pets and livestock.

 

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
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5 hours ago, millefleur said:

Yeah, exactly, I know it seems counter intuitive to just let the infected people outside, but it really does seem to help. It's hard to explain the exact science of why it works, but my hunch is a combo of the sun exposure killing the virus and the fresh air reducing the viral load around the patient (and caretakers too), also fresh air is not stagnant, it is dynamic and that probably helps with breathing too.

 

I hope people will start to get more creative with solutions instead of immediately bemoaning and whining that there won't be enough beds, machines, etc....all that negativity really helps no one and we can actually learn from the past in the case of the Spanish flu.

The mainstream media does not seem to talk about viral load too much.  We get stories that this virus will live on surfaces for extended periods, but they don’t talk about half-life and how much viral load is still present after a period of time.

 

As to open air treatment “camps” for lack of a better term, I am also in favor of this.  It is also one of the reasons during this isolation period, we get outside in the sun as much as we can.

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
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4 hours ago, JonSeattle said:

Unfortunately science is agonizingly slow in times like this. I'd like to think it is because of widespread use of hydroxychloroquine, but it's too soon to say. I could also be just because the model doesn't take into account various factors like localized running out of hospital beds, even running out of uninfected doctors and nurses, as is happening in Philippines.

 

https://www.contagionlive.com/news/results-from-a-controlled-trial-of-hydroxychloroquine-for-covid19

 

This one sounds extremely promising as well:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011?via%3Dihub

And it's already in widespread use for pets and livestock.

 

I rad a couple of articles about Invermectin, but not seeing much talk about it yet in the mainstream.  It certainly could,be interesting.

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US Entry : 2014-09-12

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I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

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I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
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8 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

Interesting.

 

 

I have been following the UW model and they did a major update last evening.  One big change I noticed was they are showing Washington state pst it’s peak.  They also seem to have more realistic numbers on hospital resources.

 

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates

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US Entry : 2014-09-12

POE: Detroit

Marriage : 2014-09-27

I-765 Approved: 2015-01-09

I-485 Interview: 2015-03-11

I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

I-751 NOA Received:  2016-12-29

I-751 Biometrics Appt.:  2017-01-26

I-751 Interview:  2018-04-10

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Wow a dewormer helps reduce the spread of a virus in vitro? 

You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose.  - Dr. Seuss

 

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Russia
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Just now, NikLR said:

Wow a dewormer helps reduce the spread of a virus in vitro? 

That was my thought as well when I first heard about the lab studies.

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I-485 Approved: 2015-03-13

Green Card Received: 2015-03-24 Yeah!!!

I-751 ROC Submitted: 2016-12-20

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4 hours ago, NikLR said:

Wow a dewormer helps reduce the spread of a virus in vitro? 

Seems like my dog took that for heart worms 

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1 hour ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Seems like my dog took that for heart worms 

Yeah they do as a preventive.  Its not very effective against heartworm anymore. 

You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose.  - Dr. Seuss

 

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Filed: Citizen (apr) Country: Ecuador
Timeline
17 hours ago, Dashinka said:

That was my thought as well when I first heard about the lab studies.

Labrador studies?

06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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