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Hd1170

Estimated VJ timeline

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For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

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I thought the estimate was really optomistic given what I had read elsewhere. i was shocked when my petition was approved in just 115 days and beat the visa journey estimate. I think you all are going a great job!!

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My approval was around 1.5 months before hand.  expected approval was april 11th, approved feb. 26th


NOTE: Black & Bold = Visa Related

 

02/16/2018: Met online on a mobile game called Guns of Glory

04/10/2018: Decided to try a long distance relationship.

05/06/2018: Flew to Mexico to meet!! (5 days)

07/16/2018: Flew down for her birthday on the 18th! (10 days)

07/18/2018: Proposed. (Happy birthday amor!)

09/23/2018: Flew down for a 5 day visit. (5 days)

10/03/2018: I129f sent

10/05/2018: NOA1

11/19/2018: Flew down for 21 day visit and met her parents (21 days)

02/11/2019: 5 day visit to spend the 14th together! (5 days)

02/26/2019: NOA2 

03/19/2019: NVC received

03/22/2019: NVC case # assigned

04/02/2019: Consulate received

04/21/2019: 4 day visit planned

 

08/21/2019: Medical

08/22/2019: ASC

08/28/2019: Interview

 

Total time spent together before interview: 46 days (still counting)

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19 minutes ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

Timelines expand and contract all the time,  wr are currently in a time of contraction but this can change at any time


YMMV

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4 hours ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

It changes all the time. For us, the timelines were not accurate; it took longer than what was estimated (6 weeks from NOA2 to NVC received (rather than the estimated 21 days at the time, which is now 29 days). Others who received their NOA2s after us made it to the NVC and the consulate before us. There is no way of telling really. 

The timelines seem to be shorter now, and people who submitted their I-129F 3-4 months after us have now caught up and are at the same stage as us (we filed in July). But the tables could turn and the timelines could get longer. 

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Ours was approved last year @ 185 days, which was pretty close to the predicted time here on VJ (time till NOA2 was taking longer last year).  The NVC ---> embassy ----> interview portion was quite fast ~ less than six weeks!  And my husband's EAD/AP card arrived a month earlier than the VJ estimate.  

 

The 'data' is only as good as the accuracy of people voluntarily reporting here.

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5 hours ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

Nope. Its way off. It “guesstimated Feb 12-25th” for me and Im still waiting. I believe it was basing it off of overall trends rather than country and region specific stats. 


 

 

 

Spoiler
Spoiler
Spoiler

 

 

 

 

10685284_10203853223303551_1747007237_n.jpg

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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Hd1170 said:

For thoes of you who have received your NOA2, how accurate was the anticipated date provided by Visa journey? We are in the process of making some decisions about schooling and while I know there is never a guarantee it would be nice to know if that anticipated date is one we can use to guide us.

The last time anyone did any analysis of this that I know of, about 40% of timelines were approved within +/- 1 week of their final projected date.

However, I think that was during a period when processing times were fairly static; if they're changing (which they have been lately, fortunately for those filing in the second half of 2018 it's been going down) the projections will be less accurate.

 

We (late May 2018 filers) were approved about ten days before our final projected date. However, what the averages are does not guarantee anything about any specific case; one of the original posters in the May 2018 thread didn't get their NOA2 until last month (with no RFEs) ... and some late December 2018 filers were approved yesterday.

Edited by DaveAndAnastasia

K-1                             AOS
NOA1 Notice Date: 2018-05-31    NOA1 Notice Date: 2019-04-11
NOA2 Date: 2018-11-16
Arrived at NVC:  2018-12-03
Arrived in Moscow: 2018-12-28
Interview date: 2019-02-14
Visa issued: 2019-02-28
POE: 2019-03-11
Wedding: 2019-03-14

 

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Moved from K1 Process & Procedures to Site-Related Discussion; topic is about the VJ timeline feature.


Our journey:

Spoiler

September 2007: Met online via social networking site (MySpace); began exchanging messages.
March 26, 2009: We become a couple!
September 10, 2009: Arrived for first meeting in-person!
June 17, 2010: Arrived for second in-person meeting and start of travel together to other areas of China!
June 21, 2010: Engaged!!!
September 1, 2010: Switched course from K1 to CR-1
December 8, 2010: Wedding date set; it will be on February 18, 2011!
February 9, 2011: Depart for China
February 11, 2011: Registered for marriage in Wuhan, officially married!!!
February 18, 2011: Wedding ceremony in Shiyan!!!
April 22, 2011: Mailed I-130 to Chicago
April 28, 2011: Received NOA1 via text/email, file routed to CSC (priority date April 25th)
April 29, 2011: Updated
May 3, 2011: Received NOA1 hardcopy in mail
July 26, 2011: Received NOA2 via text/email!!!
July 30, 2011: Received NOA2 hardcopy in mail
August 8, 2011: NVC received file
September 1, 2011: NVC case number assigned
September 2, 2011: AOS invoice received, OPTIN email for EP sent
September 7, 2011: Paid AOS bill (payment portal showed PAID on September 9, 2011)
September 8, 2011: OPTIN email accepted, GZO number assigned
September 10, 2011: Emailed AOS package
September 12, 2011: IV bill invoiced
September 13, 2011: Paid IV bill (payment portal showed PAID on September 14, 2011)
September 14, 2011: Emailed IV package
October 3, 2011: Emailed checklist response (checklist generated due to typo on Form DS-230)
October 6, 2011: Case complete at NVC
November 10, 2011: Interview - APPROVED!!!
December 7, 2011: POE - Sea-Tac Airport

September 17, 2013: Mailed I-751 to CSC

September 23, 2013: Received NOA1 in mail (receipt date September 19th)

October 16, 2013: Biometrics Appointment

January 28, 2014: Production of new Green Card ordered

February 3, 2014: New Green Card received; done with USCIS until fall of 2023*

 

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