Trump campaign admits things don't look good

[Jacque67 7,328]

With less than 20 days remaining until American voters cast their ballots in what has been one of the ugliest, most tumultuous presidential elections in modern American history, Donald Trump is limping to the finish line. For more than two weeks, the bombastic New York billionaire has been on the defensive as nearly a dozen women have come forward with allegations of sexual assault and harassment against him. Now that hes facing a double-digit deficit in a number of nationwide polls to Hillary Clinton, a Trump presidency is looking far from likelyand even the Republican standard bearers campaign is admitting it.

We are behind, Kellyanne Conway, the G.O.P. nominees campaign manager, conceded during an interview with NBCs Meet the Press, on Sunday morning when asked about Trumps standing in the polls, adding that Clinton has tremendous advantages, such as her lineup of campaign surrogates, including the Obamas and her husband Bill. Our advantage is that Donald Trump is just going to keep bringing the case directly to the people, Conway continued, noting that she thinks the campaign is going to focus on attracting undecided voters. We need to bring them aboard over the next couple of weeks.

But the Trump campaign has a lot of ground to make up before November 8 and the path to victory is looking increasingly narrow: The G.O.P. nominee lags behind his Democratic rival in a number of key battleground states, including Pennsylvania and North Carolina, and a number of deep red states are on the brink of turning blue. The real estate mogul trails Clinton by an average of almost six points nationally in a four-way contest with third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein.

Trumps support from his own party is also waning. In the wake of his hot-mic scandal and the flood of allegations, a number of Republicansperhaps most notably former presidential nominee Senator John McCainhave rescinded their endorsements of Trump. And just on Saturday, the board of the Log Cabin Republicans, the largest assemblage of LGBT Republicans, voted not to endorse the G.O.P. nominee. Could Donald Trump be the most pro-LGBT president that this country has ever had? He might well be, the groups president, Gregory Angelo told Politico. Even so, the board did not feel comfortable putting the full face of our 40-year-old brand behind the Republican Partys nominee for president.

http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/10/kellyanne-conway-trump-campaign

However the Las Vegas Review-Journal has decided to back Trump!!!!! The owner non other than Sheldon Adelson-lolzzzzz!!!!!!

[jg121783 3,921]

Show me a poll that doesn't sample democrats at a 2 to 1 ratio to Republicans and maybe I'll buy it. By the way the false allegations against Trump are having very little effect according to Google search stats.

[Rob L 3,811]

Show me a poll that doesn't sample democrats at a 2 to 1 ratio to Republicans and maybe I'll buy it. By the way the false allegations against Trump are having very little effect according to Google search stats.

We will be sure to have counselors ready for select VJ CEHEST members the day after the election. Reality is going to set in sooner or later.

[jg121783 3,921]

Insult me all you want. Until you produce a poll backing up your position that samples equally it is irrelevant.

[Rob L 3,811]

Insult me all you want. Until you produce a poll backing up your position that samples equally it is irrelevant.

Equally to what ?

Half Republican Have Democrat and no independent?

Proportionately to the 2012 election?

All pollsters have their own likely voter formula.

[ready4ONE 5,400]

Insult me all you want. Until you produce a poll backing up your position that samples equally it is irrelevant.

Are you suggesting a poll that must seek out equal numbers of Rump and Clinton supporters? How would that work exactly? Ask 1000 people then only include the exact number of respondents' equal to those who selected Rump and discard the rest?

[jg121783 3,921]

No. But the poll should sample near the same amount of Republicans and democrats. Not a 2 to 1 ratio like most of the polls that are conducted.

[Rob L 3,811]

No. But the poll should sample near the same amount of Republicans and democrats. Not a 2 to 1 ratio like most of the polls that are conducted.

Show us one poll with a 2 to 1 ratio

[jg121783 3,921]

Show us one poll with a 2 to 1 ratio

Show me one with Clinton more than a couple (if any) points ahead that isn't skewed towards democrats.

[Rob L 3,811]

Wait

You said

"No. But the poll should sample near the same amount of Republicans and democrats. Not a 2 to 1 ratio like most of the polls that are conducted. "

instead of addressing "most of the polls" I asked to see one with a 2 democrat to 1 Republican ratio.

We cannot even locate one that matches the your description "2 to 1 ratio like most of the polls that are conducted. "

they don't exist

[TBoneTX 47,535]

Again, all that matters is How Many of Whom show up at the polls.

[elmcitymaven 9,712]

Here's a handy primer on why using equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans in a poll will not produce reliable numbers -- yours to cut out and keep!

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-arent-skewed-trump-really-is-losing-badly/

[floridadave 195]

"We are behind, Kellyanne Conway, the G.O.P. nominees campaign manager, conceded during an interview with NBCs Meet the Press."

Besides her other attributes as a campaign manager she is president and CEO of The Polling Company/WomanTrendConway and is a top notch Trump propaganda machine. For her to EVER say this, regardless of the reasons, is like throwing in the towel and probably more telling than any poll.

About polls, I'm thinking everyone here is well aware of these which are updated almost daily:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/ citing many polls. And

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ predicting the chance of winning the election.

Fivethirtyeight has a good table of polls, ratings and loads of other information about those polls including Mean-reverted bias toward Demoratic or Republican candidates: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/.

Barring a miracle, It's looking pretty bleak for Trump.

Edited October 24, 2016 by floridadave

[jg121783 3,921]

Polls can be made to say what the poll takers want them to say. Some say Hillary is winning. Some say Trump is winning. The real question is where are all the Hillary supporters? There are Trump signs everywhere and not a single Hillary sign to be seen. Trump has tens of thousands of people show up at his rallies and turns people away. Hillary can barely get a few hundred to show up (when she isn't resting for weeks on end). I guess the only poll that really matters is on November 8th.

[millefleur 5,052]

Polls can be made to say what the poll takers want them to say. Some say Hillary is winning. Some say Trump is winning. The real question is where are all the Hillary supporters? There are Trump signs everywhere and not a single Hillary sign to be seen. Trump has tens of thousands of people show up at his rallies and turns people away. Hillary can barely get a few hundred to show up (when she isn't resting for weeks on end). I guess the only poll that really matters is on November 8th.

A lot of Americans are moderates and don't necessarily ascribe to either side of the political spectrum. There is no doubt that some people will change their minds and switch sides by the time November 8th rolls around.

Polls are kind of misleading, as you said. I've been checking the RealClearPolitics map (center-right bias) and the FiveThirtyEight map (center-left bias) maps to get a better idea of what is actually going to happen on Election Day. Though both sites have different political slants, they both are pointing at a victory for Hillary.

Edited October 24, 2016 by millefleur