F2B approved but how long of a wait at NVC?

[Allaboutwaiting 2,500]

1 hour ago, TempunAlex said:

Any input is greatly appreciated!

I don't feel you greatly appreciated our input. 

[TempunAlex 7]

4 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

You haven't been around here long.  There are a lot of people who have valid (sometimes URGENT) needs to return to home country. Happens a lot. Good luck on your journey. 

You've been excellent, I've actually had you answer me in other threads before. The problem is when other people don't read the entirety of the thread and then post things undermining people's choices in the route they took for immigration without knowing why they did it. 

 

I wish there were more rules in place to prevent those type of discussions. I don't think I've been here long, probably only since October last year. I mostly lurk and read here and there.

 

Thanks btw!

[mam521 1,780]

Seeing most K1 filers get it in about 4-6 months.

 

You may want to check this out: 

 

People are not trying to be rude or upset you, but many newbies have expectations, both those of entitlement to immigrate and unrealistic ones of timelines and best ways to attempt to skirt the system and find a way to "go faster".  The later tends to end up costing a lot more, not just in dollars, but in screw ups and missteps. 

 

The rather unfortunate reality of immigration is it's not fast by any means, it's expensive and it's challenging.  It is a privilege, not a right.  Immi pushes the pause button on life if your entire plan is based around it, but that is simply the reality of it.  You either hold your breath until it gets unpaused or you get on with living life to the fullest with no expectations and when the case makes it to the top of the pile, you make your plan to pivot.  

 

[dwheels76 5,463]

1 hour ago, TempunAlex said:

I think "Issues" depend on each individual. None of those listed would be an issue for us. Including filing more paperwork for AOS. I've always wondered why people find it an issue to not be able to travel for 8 months. What's the purpose of applying to go live in the US if you just want to travel outside the country immediately after getting into it to live with your partner. They're not really issues, they're more like small hiccups depending on the person.

 

Also I have a BoFA account in the US and it was very easy to open with foreign documentation through my fiance but I don't even use the account. 

 

Anyway, moderator may close the thread, I came here asking for 1 thing and it turned into something different completely. The forum is not very welcoming because of all the people trying to 1 up each other constantly in  posts. 

 

Hope the best to you all.

Because being land locked and can't travel can be a big issue. Parents get sick, die, Family members need help. I have a close friend immigrated here he waiting for his Advance Parole. Parents died like 8 months apart it took 15 months year to get his AP and EAD card. And this was before COVID. It happens.

Some folk still have personal business to attend to. Some need to still fulfill their job requirements to be ab;e to truly immigrate. Many reasons why people need to travel and can't wait 6 months and such.

But to expect to be here in 9 months I doubt you would be done at USCIS by then. Depends on your service center and California just posted today 16 months for K1. And depending on your country you got a wait to start processing and who knows how far out your calendar is.

[JeanneAdil 6,244]

4 hours ago, TempunAlex said:

It's not optimistic, I'm in dosens of K1 visa groups on facebook and other places where we have data miners. USCIS is processing over 1000 cases a week for the past 4 weeks. They're already going through Feb 2022 cases. We even have excel sheets with updates on % of cases approved per month and what is left. August 2022 is going to be processed sometime in July/August at this pace and NVC is taking no more than 45 days to process and send over to embassy (depending on embassy). There's not that many "Issues" with a K1 other than not being able to work until your Greencard is approved and mailed to you which is also dropping in wait time lately. Seeing most K1 filers get it in about 4-6 months. 

 

 

We  have to go by USCIS quarterly reports (4th quarter of 2022 it out )  says 16,201 received quarter 4 and 48,118 ytd)  processed which is 1,350+/_  in 12 weeks    not in 4 weeks according to USCIS

 

9,492 denied and still pending 55,425   so there is substancial backlog from 2021 as pending is well over the ytd received K1  petitions 

the one thing any stats don't tell us is HOW LONG a petition is at a service center before actual approval and all we can go by is timeframe put out as estimate by each office

 

And don't forget the I 129 is also work visa and there were 698,249 ytd work petition I 129 with 100,296 pending 

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

 

you can also note that at the end of the 2022 fiscal year there were 8,666,971 pending petitions with USCIS 

Edited March 23, 2023 by JeanneAdil

[JeanneAdil 6,244]

19 minutes ago, JeanneAdil said:

We  have to go by USCIS quarterly reports (4th quarter of 2022 it out )  says 16,201 received quarter 4 and 48,118 ytd)  processed which is 1,350+/_  in 12 weeks    not in 4 weeks according to USCIS

 

9,492 denied and still pending 55,425   so there is substancial backlog from 2021 as pending is well over the ytd received K1  petitions 

the one thing any stats don't tell us is HOW LONG a petition is at a service center before actual approval and all we can go by is timeframe put out as estimate by each office

 

And don't forget the I 129 is also work visa and there were 698,249 ytd work petition I 129 with 100,296 pending 

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/Quarterly_All_Forms_FY2022_Q4.pdf

 

you can also note that at the end of the 2022 fiscal year there were 8,666,971 pending petitions with USCIS 

sorry 16,201 is for 12 months with 1350 a month

[TempunAlex 7]

5 hours ago, dwheels76 said:

Because being land locked and can't travel can be a big issue. Parents get sick, die, Family members need help. I have a close friend immigrated here he waiting for his Advance Parole. Parents died like 8 months apart it took 15 months year to get his AP and EAD card. And this was before COVID. It happens.

Some folk still have personal business to attend to. Some need to still fulfill their job requirements to be ab;e to truly immigrate. Many reasons why people need to travel and can't wait 6 months and such.

But to expect to be here in 9 months I doubt you would be done at USCIS by then. Depends on your service center and California just posted today 16 months for K1. And depending on your country you got a wait to start processing and who knows how far out your calendar is.

You're right, a lot of things can happen but as I stated before it's on a person to person criteria. 

 

My entire family lives in the US so I wouldn't have any need whatsoever to come back here after my arrival in the US. The USCIS estimate is based on a 80% over a span of 6 months. USCIS hired over 3000 employees in January and has since started processing cases not on a month to month basis but on a 40-50% done move to next month basis. This means that the spread among 4-5 months of processing has rendered their estimate system in place on their website useless. 

 

I am unsure if It's allowed to post external links here but here is a link to an excel spreadsheet we keep on "view only" mode for the mass public by data scraping case tracker every single day for changes in cases. We have exact dates on when cases were submitted, received, RFEd, and even Approved so we can accurately tell what the processing times are right now. Which is somewhere in the neighborhood of 13 months/14 months and dropping. The months of January and February specifically have way less cases than the rest of the year so in a matter of about 1-2 weeks USCIS will begin working on March/April 2022. 

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sN2bo1xZhs8oVU6-QDUdBXBX2_ci8_QJ0wiz59Gp6H4/edit?fbclid=IwAR0_dTQNIXl44Yc08XXDS-bLN6dXYcDAqEsHm2XpU1n9XngKSAnRaRSSDmU#gid=1603169151

 

Anyone interested just take a look at said link and save it for yourself to keep yourself posted. 

 

USCIS at current speed is completing nearly 5000 cases per month right now, with last week being somewhere in the neighborhood of 1200+ and this week possibly reaching that or exceeding it as well. 

 

I'm a data guy so I love keeping track of this kind of stuck and helping to provide accurate numbers. 

Edited March 23, 2023 by TempunAlex
forgot to add link

[SalishSea 16,867]

9 hours ago, TempunAlex said:

Right, but the priority date for NVC has been stuck in 2015 for a year now. That means that I would have probably a 2-3 year more wait before I can even travel to the US. With my K1 I'd be there end of this year and just waiting for my green card (Before anyone starts saying I can't work etc, We already know this and I have plenty of money saved to accommodate my lack of financial support to the household) 

 

If my Father were to become a Citizen would I get faster processing at NVC? 

You definitely will not be here by the end of the year with a K-1.   Or perhaps you meant end of 2024?

Edited March 24, 2023 by Jorgedig

[SalishSea 16,867]

9 hours ago, TempunAlex said:

It's not optimistic, I'm in dosens of K1 visa groups on facebook and other places where we have data miners. USCIS is processing over 1000 cases a week for the past 4 weeks. They're already going through Feb 2022 cases. We even have excel sheets with updates on % of cases approved per month and what is left. August 2022 is going to be processed sometime in July/August at this pace and NVC is taking no more than 45 days to process and send over to embassy (depending on embassy). There's not that many "Issues" with a K1 other than not being able to work until your Greencard is approved and mailed to you which is also dropping in wait time lately. Seeing most K1 filers get it in about 4-6 months. 

 

How come every time I ask a question in this forum, people start going off the rails trying to beat on others  saying "Oh that's bad, you shouldn't have applied to that" instead of actually just giving concrete answers to the questions asked. 

so Unmarried over 21 for Citizens falls under the F1 category? I didn't know that, I thought F1 was for students for some reason.

Not sure where you’re getting your info from, but EAD-AP is taking longer than 4-6 months.   Green cards are taking two years in general, depending on field office.

 

You might also like to know that those with pending ROC cases are currently receiving 46 month extension letters.   When we were going through AOS, those letters were 12 months.

 

Its nice that you expect timelines to rapidly increase this year, but I would bet that is wishful thinking.