K1 processing time up to 16.5 months at California center

[myohmyohmy 15]

2 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

I think this is the most accurate take. The 80% isn't as great of a stat as we think it is. It doesn't tell us much because we don't know how fast 65% or 75% or even 79% etc gets processed. Only 80%

Took me forever to figure out the meaning and I work in numbers!  Basically the number to me means nothing although it would look better if lower.  I just did a simple example:

 

Say October 2021 is 16.5 months ago and 1,000 people apply.  And NO one applies since.

 

They get that 16.5 number by looking at "adjugated" cases, which means made a decision, in the last 6 months and use that number.  their definition is "This processing time is based on how long it took us to complete 80% of adjudicated cases over the past six months."   They are only looking at the past 6 months.

 

Say 900 of the cases were approved in November 2021, this is not reflected in the 16.5 because only 6 months is included in the 16.5. Say the remaining 100 is completed in the last 6 month time frame, if you look at those 100, 80% would have been done in 16.5 months.  The others took longer.  But the point is 900 of the 1000 could be approved right away and that doesn't get reflected in the 16.5 as it's not an average.  Basically from my analysis the 16.5 means nothing.  That's how I read it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[GinoNiña 182]

I like your theory. But what is the reason for increasing the processing time?

[powerpuff 6,057]

13 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

I like your theory. But what is the reason for increasing the processing time?

Probably to decrease outside of processing time requests 

[GinoNiña 182]

Or a tactic they used on us (customers), like going to a car repair shop. The mechanic gives you at a higher estimate cost for the repair. So when you get the final bill and the cost is slightly lower than his estimate, it feels better. What you guys think? 

PS! I’m able to get in here and say bull things and it’s because I’m in this very boring company provided class….

Edited March 24, 2023 by TBoneTX
evading language filter

[GinoNiña 182]

7 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

Or a tactic they used on us (customers), like going to a car repair shop. The mechanic gives you at a higher estimate cost for the repair. So when you get the final bill and the cost is slightly lower than his estimate, it feels better. What you guys think? 

PS! I’m able to get in here and say bull things and it’s because I’m in this very boring company provided class….

pardon the word I used, I dont want to get ban, I meant to say ¨unverified  things to say¨.

Edited March 24, 2023 by TBoneTX
evading language filter

[myohmyohmy 15]

17 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

I like your theory. But what is the reason for increasing the processing time?

They aren't necessary increasing the processing time, this number is arbitrary.  The spreadsheet is more accurate.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JeanneAdil 6,307]

still left with a back log of 2021 K1 cases 

48,118 received in 2022 with 16,201 approved, 9,492 denied and still at end of fiscal year 2022 (september 2022)  55,425 pending 

 

USICS at end of 2022 had 8,666,971 petitions pending overall so,  it's slow going 

 

to all of u with current K1 petitions,  u have my prayers to be able to come and start the AOS process ASAP

USCIS hasn't posted when the rates will change /2020 proposed increase was to start October 3rd and we have yet to see if a court will rule against this 

[SalishSea 16,984]

8 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

Personally, I would rely more in vj statistics than Uscis. Vj uses real time members inputs. 
unless Uscis has done something that they’re not supposed to be doing, like processing illegal aliens. 

VJ data is absolutely not more reliable than USCIS data.

 

Not sure what you mean by that sentence, that is an odd comment.

[TBoneTX 43,536]

A post and a quote of it have been edited for language.

[Caligirl1 206]

2 hours ago, Jorgedig said:

VJ data is absolutely not more reliable than USCIS data.

 

Not sure what you mean by that sentence, that is an odd comment.

I agree, the sentence about illegal aliens is weird- at least 🤔🤐

[GinoNiña 182]

14 hours ago, Jorgedig said:

VJ data is absolutely not more reliable than USCIS data.

 

Not sure what you mean by that sentence, that is an odd comment.

What I meant to say is local data, wishful data, tribal knowledge data. In my personal opinion some members inputs here has given me a general knowledge of where is my general location is from this very long list. Just my personal opinion. 
There is only one official web we can get info from, Uscis. Which is very diabolical vague. 
now here in vj, in my opinion, is slightly have better chance of making speculation/predictions. Thanks to all participating members. 

Caution! Do not take my word with a grain of salt. Always check other sources as well. 
 

Also thanks for commenting about my comment. And next time I should start by saying “in my opinion”. 
 

I have no affiliation with vj. 

[GinoNiña 182]

11 hours ago, Caligirl1 said:

I agree, the sentence about illegal aliens is weird- at least 🤔🤐

I will start by saying I am a proud legal alien who went through a very meticulous and very long process. And so are my friends and families. 
That is all I have to say about that. It’s going to be a long and angry debate and pretty sure the mods won’t like it. 
 

[Caligirl1 206]

9 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

I will start by saying I am a proud legal alien who went through a very meticulous and very long process. And so are my friends and families. 
That is all I have to say about that. It’s going to be a long and angry debate and pretty sure the mods won’t like it. 
 

We all are, and we all did go/ are still going through that process. But implying something about uscis not doing their job and instead " dealing " with illegal aliens without providing any substance is just baseless in my opinion.  BTW, uscis is part of/ a branch of homeland security- guess who's in charge of dealing with " illegal aliens " as you call them?😉

[GinoNiña 182]

4 minutes ago, Caligirl1 said:

We all are, and we all did go/ are still going through that process. But implying something about uscis not doing their job and instead " dealing " with illegal aliens without providing any substance is just baseless in my opinion.  BTW, uscis is part of/ a branch of homeland security- guess who's in charge of dealing with " illegal aliens " as you call them?😉

This made me speculated on what is behind this increase processing time. I’m glad we’re agreed on something. 
 

Other members speculated their theories as well. Some of them sounded legit some might hit your nerve. 

[Ok-Mix 117]

Ooh boy the commotion that rose from this thing everywhere, even What's App and Facebook LOL.  I'm going to ignore that 16.5 now 😅