I also don’t think your visa number is too high. May 2022 visa bulletin is already on 27,000 for Europe - keep following it through September and you’ll see when in the year your number comes up next year. They also do designation of Current for DV categories- it means everyone who has interviews will be interviewed right up to the deadline of September 30.
I think you can also look at past visa bulletins (I’d skip 2020 and 2021 as it wouldn’t be representative due to covid) to see when the number was listed (number range, not exact number) and/or when it turned current.