The “Energy Transition” Delusion: A Reality Reset

[Dashinka 24,592]

Heard a Mark Mills interview on the Lars Larson show.  A great analysis of the realities the climate change acolytes and idiot Democrats want to ignore.  I guess there will be more delusional zealots gluing themselves to things.

 

The “Energy Transition” Delusion:  A Reality Reset

 

Despite ever-escalating rhetoric, an “energy transition” away from society’s dependence on hydrocarbons is not feasible in any meaningful time frame, and it is a dangerous delusion to base policies on the idea that such a transition is possible. Data, not aspirations, show just how critical hydrocarbons are and, in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, the consequences of failing to realize what reality permits. A different understanding of “transition” is required, one that recognizes that new energy sources should be considered additives, not outright replacements, for oil, natural gas, and coal.

Demands that hydrocarbons no longer be used—to generate electricity, heat homes, power factories, or transport people and goods from one place to another—emerge from climate-focused objectives. Observations that they aren’t being replaced and can’t be in any meaningful time frame evoke specious claims of “climate denialism” or the equivalent. But the realities of the physics, engineering, and economics of energy systems are not dependent on any facts or beliefs about climate change.

Meanwhile, current policies and two decades of mandates and spending on a transition have led to escalating energy prices that help fuel the destructive effects of inflation. The price of oil, which powers nearly 97% of all transportation, is on track to reach or exceed half-century highs, and gasoline prices have climbed. The price of natural gas, accounting for 40% of all industrial energy use and one-fourth of global electricity, has soared past a decadal high.[1] Coal prices are also at a decadal high. Coal fuels 40% of global electricity; it is also used to make 70% of all steel and accounts for half its cost of production.[2]

https://www.manhattan-institute.org/the-energy-transition-delusion

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by Dashinka

[LIBrty4all 3,754]

How can there be SO many ignorant people out there?

[Ban Hammer 13,401]

1 hour ago, LIBrty4all said:

How can there be SO many ignorant people out there?

same thing was said in the late 40's after the nazi atrocities were exposed

[Mike E 11,740]

We didn’t need state mandates to

move from

 

* stones to bronze, bronze to iron, iron to steel, steel to composite

 

* human labor to animal labor, animal labor to steam power, steam power to internal combustion power 

 

* wood to coal, coal to whale oil, whale oil to fossil oil 

 

We don’t need state mandates to move from fossil fuels to renewables. If renewables are better, they will be used because they are better or because fossil fuels will be too depleted which means renewables will be better. 
 

Admittedly state mandates to get us off incandescent light bulbs did some good but even there, this exception proved the rule. The state mandated we  CFLs for a few years. CFLs are just receptacles of poison (mercury) and they shatter more easily than incandescents. You will notice not even California bothers to have a safe disposal system of these stupidities.  
 

We would have moved to LED lights  on our own because on the whole LED lights are best.  

 

Eventually we will 

 

* figure out a renewable energy system that lets the power run at night. We’ve a solar power plant in AZ (Solana) that runs for 6 hours at night because it doesn’t use photovoltaics. Instead mirrors focus sunlight  to heat up  a toxic molten sludge that powers a steam generator. The sierra club likes it because the plant uses less water per square mile than agriculture.  Unfortunately, aside from 6 hours not being enough, the toxic  sludge contributes to air pollution when the sludge breaks seals, so it is not a general solution.  

 

*  dig up all the buried power lines to expand capacity. We dug trenches before to move above ground lines underground. We can do it again. And again and again.  

 

* come up with an electric battery solution for vehicles that doesn’t require using using more scarce elements than proven reserves and doesn’t require $20,000 to replace when the battery wears out. 

 

Every one of our energy transitions involved profound changes to the energy infrastructure and the free market simply paid for it, because consumers wanted it.  
 

And btw in the course of thousands of years of civilization, there have been several  changes in regional and global  climate. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_environmental_historyis fascinating read that summarizes these.  Start from the section 10th Millennium BC (now I grant you that the use of BC and not BCE indicates this Wikipedia article was likely written by an  white male Nazi Trump voter) and you will see dozens of documented climate changes. Humanity just sucked it up and coped.  
 

What we are experiencing in 20th-21st century is nothing new.  

 

The laws of physics  say it is possible to move to renewables because life itself is powered by renewables. Just let it happen instead of forcing it and it will be OK. 
 

Every cloud has its silver lining.  A volcano erupts in Hawaii and people say the sky is literally falling. I say, yeah but that means America’s land area is growing. 

[Dashinka 24,592]

More ESG around “green” energy that will push us back to the dark ages.

 

Planned wind farm told it will need to shut down for five months a year to protect parrots

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/16/wind-farm-will-need-to-shut-down-five-months-a-year-to-protect-parrots.html

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,376]

On 12/4/2022 at 9:46 AM, Mike E said:

We didn’t need state mandates to

move from

 

* stones to bronze, bronze to iron, iron to steel, steel to composite

 

* human labor to animal labor, animal labor to steam power, steam power to internal combustion power 

 

* wood to coal, coal to whale oil, whale oil to fossil oil 

 

We don’t need state mandates to move from fossil fuels to renewables. If renewables are better, they will be used because they are better or because fossil fuels will be too depleted which means renewables will be better. 
 

Admittedly state mandates to get us off incandescent light bulbs did some good but even there, this exception proved the rule. The state mandated we  CFLs for a few years. CFLs are just receptacles of poison (mercury) and they shatter more easily than incandescents. You will notice not even California bothers to have a safe disposal system of these stupidities.  
 

We would have moved to LED lights  on our own because on the whole LED lights are best.  

 

Eventually we will 

 

* figure out a renewable energy system that lets the power run at night. We’ve a solar power plant in AZ (Solana) that runs for 6 hours at night because it doesn’t use photovoltaics. Instead mirrors focus sunlight  to heat up  a toxic molten sludge that powers a steam generator. The sierra club likes it because the plant uses less water per square mile than agriculture.  Unfortunately, aside from 6 hours not being enough, the toxic  sludge contributes to air pollution when the sludge breaks seals, so it is not a general solution.  

 

*  dig up all the buried power lines to expand capacity. We dug trenches before to move above ground lines underground. We can do it again. And again and again.  

 

* come up with an electric battery solution for vehicles that doesn’t require using using more scarce elements than proven reserves and doesn’t require $20,000 to replace when the battery wears out. 

 

Every one of our energy transitions involved profound changes to the energy infrastructure and the free market simply paid for it, because consumers wanted it.  
 

And btw in the course of thousands of years of civilization, there have been several  changes in regional and global  climate. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_environmental_historyis fascinating read that summarizes these.  Start from the section 10th Millennium BC (now I grant you that the use of BC and not BCE indicates this Wikipedia article was likely written by an  white male Nazi Trump voter) and you will see dozens of documented climate changes. Humanity just sucked it up and coped.  
 

What we are experiencing in 20th-21st century is nothing new.  

 

The laws of physics  say it is possible to move to renewables because life itself is powered by renewables. Just let it happen instead of forcing it and it will be OK. 
 

Every cloud has its silver lining.  A volcano erupts in Hawaii and people say the sky is literally falling. I say, yeah but that means America’s land area is growing. 

Well said. Hybrids are a great fit for some as are some  electric cars.  But spot on about people will transition when it makes sense to them. Your  led example was spot on. I transitioned becuss they last darn near forever and lower my power bill. I can run my porch lights dusk to dawn for pennies. 

 

As the price between Hybrids and Gas get closer and closer more will transition.  Also most Hybrids have a higher predicted reliability. 

[Dashinka 24,592]

On 12/19/2022 at 11:39 AM, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

Well said. Hybrids are a great fit for some as are some  electric cars.  But spot on about people will transition when it makes sense to them. Your  led example was spot on. I transitioned becuss they last darn near forever and lower my power bill. I can run my porch lights dusk to dawn for pennies. 

 

As the price between Hybrids and Gas get closer and closer more will transition.  Also most Hybrids have a higher predicted reliability. 

Personally, I think hybrid is the way to go, but they do not score as well as EVs in the realm of ESG.  The cost of hybrids are already closer to the cost of ICE than a comparable EV.

 

Toyota seems to understand it, but it is difficult to get around the forcible governments that are pushing the farce of EVs being emission free.

 

Toyota's CEO: 'Silent Majority' Want More Than Just EVs in the Future

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/toyotas-ceo-silent-majority-want-more-than-just-evs-in-the-future/ar-AA15sDMN

[Mike E 11,740]

5 hours ago, Dashinka said:

but they do not score as well as EVs in the realm of ESG

Most EVs sold are Teslas (

 

https://www.sustainalytics.com/esg-rating/tesla-inc/1035322998

 

) and Tesla has a lower ESG score than hybrid makers

 

Tesla ESG: https://www.sustainalytics.com/esg-rating/tesla-inc/1035322998 28.7

 

Toyota is is 29.2

 

 

[Dashinka 24,592]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

Most EVs sold are Teslas (

 

https://www.sustainalytics.com/esg-rating/tesla-inc/1035322998

 

) and Tesla has a lower ESG score than hybrid makers

 

Tesla ESG: https://www.sustainalytics.com/esg-rating/tesla-inc/1035322998 28.7

 

Toyota is is 29.2

 

 

The entire ESG score is a joke, and I doubt Elon Musk cares much about it.

[TBoneTX 45,522]

15 hours ago, Dashinka said:

hybrid

I saw a Prius just ahead of me on the freeway today.  I had this vivid mind-movie that I was in a huge bulldozer, about to crush it.

[Dashinka 24,592]

On 12/21/2022 at 9:17 PM, TBoneTX said:

I saw a Prius just ahead of me on the freeway today.  I had this vivid mind-movie that I was in a huge bulldozer, about to crush it.

What’s wrong with a Prius that instills such thoughts?  If people want to drive them, and it suits their needs, what is wrong with that?  Personally I am not a big fan of the Prius, and it does not suit our needs, but they are no different than any other vehicle out there.

[Mike E 11,740]

Priuses are ugly.  I feel the same way about Nissan Leafs. When used to charge my EV at fork I could count on Leaf owners disconnecting me while I was still charging.  

[Dashinka 24,592]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

Priuses are ugly.  I feel the same way about Nissan Leafs. When used to charge my EV at fork I could count on Leaf owners disconnecting me while I was still charging.  

I agree' both are ugly, I also think the Tesla X and Y are quite ugly.  The Tesla S looks nice, the 3 is so so.  Personally I am more of a sedan/coupe guy, but of course here in the US, it is all about SUVs, and hatchbacks.  I do like the looks of the GMC HD trucks.  They look beefy for a truck.

[TBoneTX 45,522]

2 hours ago, Mike E said:

Priuses

Linguist in me aches for the plural to be "Prii."

2 hours ago, Mike E said:

Nissan Leafs

Plural should be "Leaves."

[Mike E 11,740]

5 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

 

Plural should be "Leaves."

It’s a Canadian thing.