Why are we rushing to defend Ukraine? [merged threads]

[Dashinka 23,360]

1 hour ago, TBoneTX said:

Having been "spoiled" (to pick a term) by Trumpian foreign policy, I'm mystified why any of this is the U.S.'s business at all.  In fact, might it not be the U.S.'s fault, for having broken that 1990s (?) promise to Putin about not expanding NATO?

It is all about how hasty the break-up of the USSR took place, promises made by the West, and promises broken by the West.  Ukraine was a highly diverse country and lines were drawn based on history, not based on the ethnicity/nationality of the people living there.  So we ended up with a country still closely tied to Russia with a lot of ethnic Russians living particularly in the eastern districts along the Russian border.  Of course when Ukraine had a more centrist/neutral government, the folks in Western Ukraine and a lot of West interference could not deal with it.  They needed a big country on Russia's border to maintain antagonism.

[Pooky 3,366]

Well, this is interesting 🤔 

 

A Russian embassy publishing a map showing Crimea as belonging to Ukraine?

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-embassy-releases-map-recognizing-crimea-ukraine-1822820?amp=1

[TBoneTX 43,417]

2 hours ago, Pooky said:

A Russian embassy publishing a map showing Crimea as belonging to Ukraine?

Someone's suicide has been scheduled.

[Ban Hammer 12,878]

3 hours ago, Pooky said:

Well, this is interesting 🤔 

 

A Russian embassy publishing a map showing Crimea as belonging to Ukraine?

 

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-embassy-releases-map-recognizing-crimea-ukraine-1822820?amp=1

must be our us tax dollars making a difference finally.............

[Dashinka 23,360]

Hmm, who couldn’t see this coming.

 

Ukraine cries foul as fuels refined from Russian oil pour into the EU
 

In December, the G7 agreed to set a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude, meaning sales below that price are allowed. The idea was to squeeze Moscow financially while allowing oil markets to continue functioning.
 

The result has been that countries like India are buying up cheap Russian crude and then refining it — which earns local companies the refining margin — before selling it to other countries.

 

Indian imports of Russian crude hit a high of 69 million barrels in May, an almost tenfold increase from the same period in 2021 prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine — and more than twice as much as the 31 million it bought in May last year.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-fuel-oil-eu-sanction/

[Pooky 3,366]

9 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Hmm, who couldn’t see this coming.

 

Ukraine cries foul as fuels refined from Russian oil pour into the EU
 

In December, the G7 agreed to set a price cap of $60 a barrel on Russian crude, meaning sales below that price are allowed. The idea was to squeeze Moscow financially while allowing oil markets to continue functioning.
 

The result has been that countries like India are buying up cheap Russian crude and then refining it — which earns local companies the refining margin — before selling it to other countries.

 

Indian imports of Russian crude hit a high of 69 million barrels in May, an almost tenfold increase from the same period in 2021 prior to Russia's invasion of Ukraine — and more than twice as much as the 31 million it bought in May last year.

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-fuel-oil-eu-sanction/

This move was never meant to squeeze Moscow. It was all about maintaining the supply volume, while setting a cost ceiling, to prevent cost gouging by Russia, which would inevitably be filled by the OPEC bloc.

 

if you wanted to squeeze Russia, follow the last President’s playbook. Oh, wait. We can’t do that. Sleepy Joe guaranteed our return to energy dependence back in 2021 😒

[TBoneTX 43,417]

Discussion, please.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Time to Choose What to Do About Ukraine

 

[...] we have to do something.  We have to adopt a strategy, and none of the options are good.  Let me give you a course of action briefing as we would do for our general in the Army as part of our military decision-making process.  There are four, and they all suck, but some are more sucky than others.  [...]

 

https://townhall.com/columnists/kurtschlichter/2023/08/31/time-to-choose-what-to-do-about-ukraine-n2627707

[Mike E 11,726]

Anyone who knows Russian military history knows the Russians get kicked around early in the war, fire their bad generals, train a new army, and then come back and win.

 

Whatever and win what, exactly?

 

True, Russia’s population is shrinking, but with a couple hundred million of them they have a nearly endless supply of cannon fodder.
 

The innumeracy of the author is laughable.

Russia has not had 200 million people in decades. And of the 147 million left, where is Russia getting the money to put a tenth them all in uniform, even if we embrace the fantasy that there are even as many 14 million able bodied and willing potential fighters?

 

So, we have to do something

 

And yet he does not say what we should do.

 

Any option that has Ukraine conceding land is a non starter for obvious reasons.

 

The CIA plan was to bankrupt Russia with a post conquest insurgency after Russia “won” in 2 weeks. 

 

Instead the status quo bankrupts Russia faster.

 

 

[Dashinka 23,360]

5 hours ago, Mike E said:

Anyone who knows Russian military history knows the Russians get kicked around early in the war, fire their bad generals, train a new army, and then come back and win.

 

Whatever and win what, exactly?

 

True, Russia’s population is shrinking, but with a couple hundred million of them they have a nearly endless supply of cannon fodder.
 

The innumeracy of the author is laughable.

Russia has not had 200 million people in decades. And of the 147 million left, where is Russia getting the money to put a tenth them all in uniform, even if we embrace the fantasy that there are even as many 14 million able bodied and willing potential fighters?

 

So, we have to do something

 

And yet he does not say what we should do.

 

Any option that has Ukraine conceding land is a non starter for obvious reasons.

 

The CIA plan was to bankrupt Russia with a post conquest insurgency after Russia “won” in 2 weeks. 

 

Instead the status quo bankrupts Russia faster.

 

 

What is the end game if in fact Russia goes bankrupt?  Also, what happens if the West also goes bankrupt in the process?

[Pooky 3,366]

7 hours ago, Mike E said:

Anyone who knows Russian military history knows the Russians get kicked around early in the war, fire their bad generals, train a new army, and then come back and win.

 

Whatever and win what, exactly?

 

True, Russia’s population is shrinking, but with a couple hundred million of them they have a nearly endless supply of cannon fodder.
 

The innumeracy of the author is laughable.

Russia has not had 200 million people in decades. And of the 147 million left, where is Russia getting the money to put a tenth them all in uniform, even if we embrace the fantasy that there are even as many 14 million able bodied and willing potential fighters?

 

So, we have to do something

 

And yet he does not say what we should do.

 

Any option that has Ukraine conceding land is a non starter for obvious reasons.

 

The CIA plan was to bankrupt Russia with a post conquest insurgency after Russia “won” in 2 weeks. 

 

Instead the status quo bankrupts Russia faster.

 

 

Bankrupting Russia financially may be fast, but bankrupting Ukraine of a generation of fighting age population may well be faster. 🙁

[Mike E 11,726]

8 hours ago, Dashinka said:

What is the end game if in fact Russia goes bankrupt?

CiA after several whiskeys: “Completion of the Marshall Plan and the transformation of NATO into a pan American/European/Asian alliance backed by 12,000 war heads versus the China / NK /  Pakistan axis of < 1000, and total control of Russian oil”.

 

8 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Also, what happens if the West also goes bankrupt in the process?

 

The $100B the U.S. has spent is merely a rounding error.

 

GDP of U.S.: $23T

GDP of EU: $17T

GDP of UK: $3T

 

GDP of Russia: $1.8T

 

Russia can no more bankrupt the West than the South could bankrupt the North in 1861, Japan bankrupt the U.S. in 1941, or the USSR bankrupt NATO in 1949 

 

And the F-16s are free: they were headed to boneyards anyway.

 

Don’t get me wrong. This mess was caused by Obama stirring the pot in Ukraine. Ukraine should have been converted into a fully neutral country years ago, before Crimea,   with no path to join NATO.

 

The current situation is a direct result of State / CIA collusion to con at least 3 US presidents into doing dangerous things.

 

State / CIA conned Putin into invading Ukraine because they wanted Russia to conquer fast to let the CIA  set up the insurgency. Alas no one thought to check with Ukrainians if they would follow the script. 

 

 

 

[Mike E 11,726]

7 hours ago, Pooky said:

Bankrupting Russia financially may be fast, but bankrupting Ukraine of a generation of fighting age population may well be faster. 🙁

Depends whether Ukrainians prefer to live under Vlad’s boot or to have their cremains pour over Vlad’s coffin.

 

Ukraine has up to 10 more years of cannon fodder. Russia should be spent by then.

[Dashinka 23,360]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

Depends whether Ukrainians prefer to live under Vlad’s boot or to have their cremains pour over Vlad’s coffin.

 

Ukraine has up to 10 more years of cannon fodder. Russia should be spent by then.

Depends on China and India of course, and the U.S. does not have a lot of pull there.  Personally I would like to see Putin gone, but the US does not have a great track record when it comes down to regime change.  In the end, Europe needs to step it up more, but who knows with Germany.

[Mike E 11,726]

1 minute ago, Dashinka said:

Depends on China and India of course

 

I doubt India and China will send troops to Ukraine.

1. Not good for China Inc’s brand.

 

2. For India and China to formally align, India would need China to end its alliance with Pakistan and to withdraw from Kashmir and other disputed territory. China does not give up land.  I am having a tough time believing Indian voters would support conceding Kashmir to prop up Vlad.

 

3. As for India,

 

*  Imagine the howling in India as tens of millions of Indian visa holders are sent home and western union and money gram payments from the West are shut down.  

 

* I doubt any elected government in india would survive in Parliament

 

* If Parliament didn’t force the troops to come home, the Indian Army would takeover.

 

About the only country willing to fight a foreign war for a decade or more  is the U.S.

* Vietnam: 19 years

* Afghanistan: 20 years

* Iraq: 18 years

 

As Eisenhower warned us and the world: Nobody has America’s commitment to war.

 

37 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

the US does not have a great track record when it comes down to regime change.  In the end, Europe needs to step it up more, but who knows with Germany

I agree with both these points. But the CiA is out of control and will try anyway.

[Dashinka 23,360]

1 hour ago, Mike E said:

 

I doubt India and China will send troops to Ukraine.

1. Not good for China Inc’s brand.

 

2. For India and China to formally align, India would need China to end its alliance with Pakistan and to withdraw from Kashmir and other disputed territory. China does not give up land.  I am having a tough time believing Indian voters would support conceding Kashmir to prop up Vlad.

 

3. As for India,

 

*  Imagine the howling in India as tens of millions of Indian visa holders are sent home and western union and money gram payments from the West are shut down.  

 

* I doubt any elected government in india would survive in Parliament

 

* If Parliament didn’t force the troops to come home, the Indian Army would takeover.

 

About the only country willing to fight a foreign war for a decade or more  is the U.S.

* Vietnam: 19 years

* Afghanistan: 20 years

* Iraq: 18 years

 

As Eisenhower warned us and the world: Nobody has America’s commitment to war.

 

I agree with both these points. But the CiA is out of control and will try anyway.

I was more referring to China and India supporting Russia financially.  I do wonder when Zelenskyy will start asking for manpower from the US/West.

 

Yes, the US government intelligence agencies are out of control.  History repeats itself.