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Captain Ewok

Philippines US Marriage Visa Approvals by Month (K1 Visas Way Down, CR1 Visas Up)

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Useful data.  Thanks, Captain!!!!


"The immigration process demands a great deal of knowledge, planning, time, patience, and money.  A deficit in any of these areas can spell heartbreak."

   -GB, "old man of much life experience"

 

Retired 20 year United States Air Force Missileer (Retired E-8)

Retired Registered Nurse with practice in Labor/Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, Adult Psych

Retired IT Professional, Software Developer, Database Manager

 

 

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Excellent post, Captain!

 

This reflects the number of applications approved, right? 

 

Makes me wonder about several stats, including percentages:

1) Number of applications submitted (during several periods - i.e. before and recently)

2) Number of applications that have been fully processed

3) Percentage of applications filed that have been processed

4) Percentage of applications that have been approved

 

(Is enough data even publicly knowable?)

 

Thanks, and keep up the great work (of course).


Profile pic - Rainbow Tower of the Hilton Hawaiian Village - Waikiki, Honolulu, Hawaii.

Why this for the profile pic?  Often in movies and on TV when they show Hawaii they show this beach/view. So, instead of doing Kauai or some other locale, we decided to do here, so that whenever some show shows Hawaii and this view, we will see where we were married.

 

2012 - First Night in the US - Waikiki Beach, Honolulu

2016 - Wedding on the beach, Honolulu, Hawaii

2016 - Honeymoon at the hotel in this photo, Waikiki, Honolulu, Hawaii

            They were filming a scene of Hawaii Five-O in the suite above ours during our Honeymoon stay! Actors everywhere!

            Spouse hung out here with celebrities from the movie The Fifth Element back when he moved to Hawaii.

 

1999 - Spouse relocated to Hawaii

            Condo was down the street from this hotel - Waikiki, Honolulu, Hawaii

2012 - Spouse was considered for a cast member for the TV show, The Last Resort, shot out of Hawaii.

 

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Singapore
Timeline
23 minutes ago, Suze1 said:

Excellent post, Captain!

 

This reflects the number of applications approved, right? 

 

Makes me wonder about several stats, including percentages:

1) Number of applications submitted (during several periods - i.e. before and recently)

2) Number of applications that have been fully processed

3) Percentage of applications filed that have been processed

4) Percentage of applications that have been approved

 

(Is enough data even publicly knowable?)

 

Thanks, and keep up the great work (of course).

Yep, these are approvals each month for each visa category.


I am an Ewok. I am here to to keep the peace. Please contact me if you have a problem with the site or a complaint regarding a violation of the Terms of Service. For the fastest response please use the 'Contact Us' page to contact me.

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Awesome graphing it out like that.  The difference would be even more dramatic if you group IR-1 and CR-1 approvals together vs K-1.   It does seem very unfair to those waiting on K1's


Wife                                                                             

  • December 17, 2020:  Married in Costa Rica
  • March 08, 2021: Filed l-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021: NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay AOS and IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 21, 2021: Submit Civil Docs 

Stepdaughter                                                              

  • March 08, 2021: Filed I-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021:  NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 14, 2021: Submit Civil Docs

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Filed: AOS (apr) Country: Philippines
Timeline
Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, top_secret said:

Awesome graphing it out like that.  The difference would be even more dramatic if you group IR-1 and CR-1 approvals together vs K-1.   It does seem very unfair to those waiting on K1's

....  misread 

Edited by payxibka

YMMV

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Posted (edited)
On 5/29/2021 at 8:30 PM, Captain Ewok said:

Here ya go!

 

image.png

imageproxy.php?img=&key=da9b9b78549feebe

 

 

It looks like the "peak" in C/IR1's pretty much could fill in the "valley" that proceeded it, and it may almost be fair to speculate that USEM could be caught up on spousal visas or at least back to pre-pandemic delays.  But the situation for K1's looks almost catastrophic and surely getting worse with every day that passes.  Since I have CR1 and CR2 in NVC right now I am comforted by the trends but I genuinely feel bad for K1's who I know have been waiting much longer than me. 

Edited by top_secret

Wife                                                                             

  • December 17, 2020:  Married in Costa Rica
  • March 08, 2021: Filed l-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021: NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay AOS and IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 21, 2021: Submit Civil Docs 

Stepdaughter                                                              

  • March 08, 2021: Filed I-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021:  NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 14, 2021: Submit Civil Docs

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Singapore
Timeline
2 hours ago, top_secret said:

 

 

It looks like the "peak" in C/IR1's pretty much could fill in the "valley" that proceeded it, and it may almost be fair to speculate that USEM could be caught up on spousal visas or at least back to pre-pandemic delays.  But the situation for K1's looks almost catastrophic and surely getting worse with every day that passes.  Since I have CR1 and CR2 in NVC right now I am comforted by the trends but I genuinely feel bad for K1's who I know have been waiting much longer than me. 

I'd support a virtual or more public protest or PR campaign if the community wants to jump on board.  This is pretty bad.  


I am an Ewok. I am here to to keep the peace. Please contact me if you have a problem with the site or a complaint regarding a violation of the Terms of Service. For the fastest response please use the 'Contact Us' page to contact me.

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Nothing against people waiting on K-1's as I wish it was easier on all of us. But going on my 4th year of marriage and having a 2 year old and one turning 3 in a few days I am happy that if they prioritize a category they chose spouse visa's. It is extremely hard with my 2 babies only seeing their daddy on a screen. I am missing them growing up and I am happy that we finally have our appointment and should be all together in US in August.

 

My wish is that the stupid government end their draconian lock downs so they let all loved ones be together.

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Filed: K-1 Visa Country: Philippines
Timeline

Yeah... it's looking more and more like Spousal visa is the way to go.  I don't know if they're ever going to catch up with the backlog of fiancee visas at this rate.


Nov 5, 2020 - Sent I-129F 
Nov 12, 2020 - Texas Lockbox received I-129F 

Feb 4, 2021 - Credit Card charged by USCIS Lockbox 

Feb 8, 2021 - NOA1 (noted as received November 12th, 2020)

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On 6/3/2021 at 2:59 PM, LonelyGringo21 said:

And it probably includes all those 90-Day Fiancée people, too.

Yea, maybe big trouble for the producers of that show to find enough new trainwreck couples to recruit in time for next season's episodes. 


Wife                                                                             

  • December 17, 2020:  Married in Costa Rica
  • March 08, 2021: Filed l-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021: NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay AOS and IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 21, 2021: Submit Civil Docs 

Stepdaughter                                                              

  • March 08, 2021: Filed I-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021:  NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 14, 2021: Submit Civil Docs

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Fun with Excel.  Just to amuse myself I decided to dig a little deeper into the numbers for USEM.  

 

Going back two years preceding the March 2020 lockdown and taking a monthly average over that time period. I came up with, on average, USEM was issuing 470 K1 visas per month, and 237 CR1/IR1 visas per month over the last 24 "normal" months.

 

Starting with March 2020, through April 2021, and averaging those months. I came up with, on average, USEM was issuing 62 K1 visas per month, and 199 CR1/IR1 visas per month over the last 13 "post-lockdown" months.

IF, the caseloads remained constant throughout that time period (unlikely), that is a "deficit" of 408 K1 visas per month and 38 CR1/IR1 visas per month, over that 13 month period compared to pre-lockdown averages.

OR.... if caseloads remained constant at their average pre-lockdown levels (unlikely), with the ongoing average interview rates, USEM could have an additional backlog of 13mo X 408 = 5,304 K1's needing interviews.   and 13mo x 38 = 494 CR1/IR1 visas.

 

Of course, that does not take into account the unknown changes that may have taken place in the numbers of new petitions in the post lockdown world.  Maybe fewer CR1’s as couples who would have married in the Philippines, canceled plans due to travel bans, and recently married couples got delayed past the 2 year mark?  Maybe more IR1’s than usual as long-term married couples decided it was time to get the heck out of Dodge?  Maybe more K1’s than usual as unmarried couples that were separated by travel bans looked at that as an only apparent option.  
 


Wife                                                                             

  • December 17, 2020:  Married in Costa Rica
  • March 08, 2021: Filed l-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021: NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay AOS and IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 21, 2021: Submit Civil Docs 

Stepdaughter                                                              

  • March 08, 2021: Filed I-130 Online
  • March 09, 2021: NOA1
  • April 26, 2021: NOA2, I-130 Approved
  • April 30, 2021:  NVC Received
  • May 01, 2021: Pay IV Bill
  • May 06, 2021: Submit AOS, Financial Docs and DS-260
  • May 14, 2021: Submit Civil Docs

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