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WaliG

VisaJourney Estimates

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2 minutes ago, WaliG said:

Whenever a timeline is updated, at the bottom VisaJourney gives you an estimate as to when your petition would be adjucated. How accurate were your estimates to your actual date for your Fiancé K-1 Visa? 

Please be aware that the estimate on your timeline is a very general INITIAL estimate......it will change day to day as more people update their own timelines with approval dates.......good luck.


                               :idea:MSC (National Benefits Center) I-751 filers- Please add your data :idea:                          https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Id1duRRByZHJmhEzl9N25GqwzcnUyLCR4e4N9W6zGLg/edit#gid=0

 

Retired 20 year US Air Force Missileer

Retired Registered Nurse with practice in Labor/Delivery, Home Health, Adolescent Psych, Adult Psych

Retired IT Professional, Software Developer, Database Manager

 

Immigration Journey:

  • Texas Service Center after transfer from Nebraska
  • Consulate :Taipei, Taiwan
  • Marriage: 7/30/2015
  • I-130 NOA1 : 4/27/2016
  • I-130 Approved :9/8/2016
  • Case received at NVC: 10/11/2016                               
  • Case # and IIN#: 10/24/2016
  • AOS Fee Invoiced:10/24/2016  
  • AOS Fee Paid:10/25/2016
  • IV Fee Invoiced:10/24/2016  
  • IV Fee Paid:10/25/2016
  • DS-260 Completed: 10/28/16
  • Scan Date:11/9/2016
  • Supervisor review: 12/21/16 
  • Checklist: 1/13/17 
  • Case Complete: 4/10/17
  • Interview Date: 5/8/17 
  • Visa  "ISSUED": 5/10/17
  • Visa and Passport in hand/Flight to USA Booked!!!: 5/12/17  
  • POE Dallas DFW on June 22, 2017
  • SS Card received : 7/3/2017
  • 2-year Green Card received in mail: 7/15/17
  • I751 mailed to Dallas PO Box: 3/28/2019
  • I-797 extension letter  for ROC dated 4/2/2019  MSCxxxxxxxxxx received: 4/6/2019
  • Biometrics apt received for 4/25/2019: on 4/12/2019
 

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55 minutes ago, WaliG said:

Whenever a timeline is updated, at the bottom VisaJourney gives you an estimate as to when your petition would be adjucated. How accurate were your estimates to your actual date for your Fiancé K-1 Visa? 

I think the last time someone ran numbers on this, about 40% of cases were adjucated within +/- 1 week of the range given in their VJ estimate.

 

If timelines are generally getting longer or shorter, I suspect the VJ estimates will be less accurate than when they're fairly constant. That's currently the case (though fortunately they're getting shorter, not longer).


K-1                             AOS
NOA1 Notice Date: 2018-05-31    NOA1 Notice Date: 2019-04-11
NOA2 Date: 2018-11-16
Arrived at NVC:  2018-12-03
Arrived in Moscow: 2018-12-28
Interview date: 2019-02-14
Visa issued: 2019-02-28
POE: 2019-03-11
Wedding: 2019-03-14

 

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1 hour ago, WaliG said:

Whenever a timeline is updated, at the bottom VisaJourney gives you an estimate as to when your petition would be adjucated. How accurate were your estimates to your actual date for your Fiancé K-1 Visa? 

I would suggest that the timeline estimates are to be taken with a huge grain of salt.  At one point, our estimated time was in mid-November.  We finally received our NOA2 approval on January 15th.  Some folks are lucky, others have to wait.  

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2 hours ago, WaliG said:

Whenever a timeline is updated, at the bottom VisaJourney gives you an estimate as to when your petition would be adjucated. How accurate were your estimates to your actual date for your Fiancé K-1 Visa? 

Hi.  I always wondered the same thing at the begining.  Ours was extremely accurate.  As time progresses & your timeline changes/updates, it becomes more accurate.  That is assuming there are no issues that you have to respond to.  Good luck in your journey.

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2 hours ago, missileman said:

Please be aware that the estimate on your timeline is a very general INITIAL estimate......it will change day to day as more people update their own timelines with approval dates.......good luck.

Thank  you!

10 minutes ago, PandT said:

Hi.  I always wondered the same thing at the begining.  Ours was extremely accurate.  As time progresses & your timeline changes/updates, it becomes more accurate.  That is assuming there are no issues that you have to respond to.  Good luck in your journey.

Thank you so much for the input! 

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If you look at the timeline search with details turned on, you can see that the NOA1 to NOA2 has dropped from 180 days in the beginning of January.  Approvals are coming in from 113 days ago and that number is stopping fast as uscis goes through their backlog.   The visajourney time estimate is based on older data.  I would not be surprised if March applicants start seeing NOA2 approvals in June.  Just a few years ago it was taking less than 2 months for that step.

 

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7 hours ago, wintermute10 said:

If you look at the timeline search with details turned on, you can see that the NOA1 to NOA2 has dropped from 180 days in the beginning of January.  Approvals are coming in from 113 days ago and that number is stopping fast as uscis goes through their backlog.   The visajourney time estimate is based on older data.  I would not be surprised if March applicants start seeing NOA2 approvals in June.  Just a few years ago it was taking less than 2 months for that step.

 

Thank you. That’s good news. 

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20 hours ago, wintermute10 said:

If you look at the timeline search with details turned on, you can see that the NOA1 to NOA2 has dropped from 180 days in the beginning of January.  Approvals are coming in from 113 days ago and that number is stopping fast as uscis goes through their backlog.   The visajourney time estimate is based on older data.  I would not be surprised if March applicants start seeing NOA2 approvals in June.  Just a few years ago it was taking less than 2 months for that step.

 

Well that changed. As uscis updated the processing to 6 to 8 months now 💔

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