VJ timeline statistic updates & accuracy

[Gatekeeper 35]

Hello,

the VJ statistics have been consistently  showing NOA2 processing dates in the range of 12th-20th of January (receipt notice for NOA1) over the last 3 or 4 weeks for the California Center.. It therefore shows a very slow progression, which is consistent with all the news we get right now about visa handlings everywhere.

I was therefore very surprised to receive our NOA2 yesterday, as our NOA1 receipt date was February 3rd.

I immediately updated my timeline accordingly on VJ, and was expecting to see this reflected on the global VJ statistics, but this one is still showing January 21st for NOA2.

my question is the following: how do these statistics work? Do they measure an average date among all candidates who registered on VJ? Don’t they use the latest data update (ie February 3rd in my case)?...

I understand that those statistics are purely indicative, but If anyone has information about how they are calculated I would appreciate some clarification. I think it would help to better understand the possible “variances” in the next steps statistics (NVC, Consulate processing etc...).

thanks for your help!

 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Gatekeeper

[payxibka 10,044]

One new data point wont move the trend 

 

USCIS is the only thing that can be attempted to be predicted.   Consular processing depends on the country and how fast the beneficiary applies. 

[Gatekeeper 35]

So the question is : do they use an average date or a median date?...It would be interesting to have the standard deviation as well.

I guess extrapolations could then be inferred for the NVC receipt date and NVC processing date too, as this is still as “predictable” as the NOA1/NOA2 stages.

[Crazy Cat 39,220]

46 minutes ago, Gatekeeper said:

So the question is : do they use an average date or a median date?...It would be interesting to have the standard deviation as well.

I guess extrapolations could then be inferred for the NVC receipt date and NVC processing date too, as this is still as “predictable” as the NOA1/NOA2 stages.

@Captain Ewok is the person to ask about the calculations.

[Gatekeeper 35]

Thanks, will do that!

[geowrian 22,335]

2 hours ago, Gatekeeper said:

I immediately updated my timeline accordingly on VJ, and was expecting to see this reflected on the global VJ statistics, but this one is still showing January 21st for NOA2.

Everybody with an expedite would be massively skewing the numbers then (there is no field to mark an expedite), or just some lucky individual.

[Gatekeeper 35]

There’s no expedite process for K-1 visas (unfortunately!).

I agree that the numbers showed should reflect the “most frequent” one, not the “luckiest one”. This is where mean average and standard deviations come in useful actually. Maybe providing them as an additional info to the existing ones then? Now granted, maybe not a majority of people would be interesting into it (but I would😱...)

[elkski 28]

What was your original forcast Noa2 date?   Perhaps this means a Noa1 date of March 5 is only a month away from Noa2 or maybe we will see some acceleration.. or this  virus spike may kill that dream..

Why didn't I make up my mind sooner with this woman?  Like after my July 2019 trip not finally in Feb 21

Of course  The Embassy in BKK has not been doing interviews for what 3 months so there will be that backlog  OMFG

[Gatekeeper 35]

My initial forecast for NOA2 was around mid July, considering both the average length of time shown on the graph (approx. 156 days) and the trend in the moving average (it started to increment by 1 day everyday again since last week. Until then, it was weirdly moving back and forth between January 16th and January 10th for processing dates). To me, this recent change in trend might be the effect of USCIS staff being back in office, hence being able to process more cases than during the lockdown. 

[Greenbaum 12,258]

6 hours ago, Gatekeeper said:

There’s no expedite process for K-1 visas (unfortunately!).

I agree that the numbers showed should reflect the “most frequent” one, not the “luckiest one”. This is where mean average and standard deviations come in useful actually. Maybe providing them as an additional info to the existing ones then? Now granted, maybe not a majority of people would be interesting into it (but I would😱...)

 

There is a expedite process for a K-1 visa but it's very narrow in scope to who and what it will apply. Medical and Military come to mind as we have seen those recently. For the official statement please read here: https://www.uscis.gov/forms/forms-information/how-make-expedite-request

Edited June 27, 2020 by Greenbaum

[Gatekeeper 35]

You’re right. Sorry I understood we were talking about the premium processing, which does not exist for K-1 as far as I know.

[elkski 28]

.I see my Noa2 date has been updated to July 28-mid August.  So its slipped 4-6 weeks since we first got Noa1.  How far did yours  change since  your Noa1  input and the initial forcast

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by elkski

[DaveAndAnastasia 2,078]

To be clear, you can request an expedite for the I-129F (though it's rarely granted except for medical reasons or for active-duty military with a pending deployment).

You can't expedite things at NVC or the consular stage.

 

Since at this time petitions just get to the NVC and stop because they're not forwarding petitions while routine visa processing is generally suspended, there's little point in requesting an expedite of an I-129F at this time.

[Gatekeeper 35]

20 minutes ago, elkski said:

.I see my Noa2 date has been updated to July 28-mid August.  So its slipped 4-6 weeks since we first got Noa1.  How far did yours  change since  your Noa1  input and the initial forcast

 

Mine slipped by 2.5 months compared to the initial forecasts available at the time we filed our NOA1 (ie before the Covid-Lockdown)

[geowrian 22,335]

9 hours ago, Gatekeeper said:

There’s no expedite process for K-1 visas (unfortunately!).

I agree that the numbers showed should reflect the “most frequent” one, not the “luckiest one”. This is where mean average and standard deviations come in useful actually. Maybe providing them as an additional info to the existing ones then? Now granted, maybe not a majority of people would be interesting into it (but I would😱...)

Sure there is, and many have been able to do so with a valid reason (https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-1-part-a-chapter-5).

I'd be interested in that as well.

 

2 hours ago, Gatekeeper said:

You’re right. Sorry I understood we were talking about the premium processing, which does not exist for K-1 as far as I know.

Right, premium processing is only available for certain employment petitions, not any family petitions. But premium processing is different than an expedite. 👍