US historical deaths from CDC data

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

9 hours ago, 90DayFinancier said:

You have been quoting CDC data for years?

Yes.  FBI stats, too.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

9 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  The chart does not come from the CDC, and you know it doesn't. If it did you would have posted the link. We both know where you found it.

Yes, I do.  Clearly, you do not.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,315]

It was a lot more fun , when we got all bristling over Obama, police shootings , and everything is Bushs fault rather than how relevant data sets are.

A certian self proclaimed smartest pediatric resident in the world, who would comment as nauseam about said subject , would be proud.

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,315]

43 minutes ago, Voice of Reason said:

Yes.  FBI stats, too.

Be careful FBI stats can get you perma banned 

[OriZ 3,157]

4 minutes ago, Nature Boy 2.0 said:

It was a lot more fun , when we got all bristling over Obama, police shootings , and everything is Bushs fault rather than how relevant data sets are.

A certian self proclaimed smartest pediatric resident in the world, who would comment as nauseam about said subject , would be proud.

I've been so out of the loop, where did he go?

[Nature Boy 2.0 8,315]

Just now, OriZ said:

I've been so out of the loop, where did he go?

He got draconed from my understanding 

[TBoneTX 43,057]

Last warning to quit bickering.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

8 hours ago, Dashinka said:

 I suspect the CDC does not plot the weekly total death rate is because it rarely changes from year-to-year.  Even the spike in percent of deaths due to P&I in late 2017 did almost nothing to the weekly overall death rate except for a slight uptick in early 2018.  The simple fact is 50k to 70k people die in the US each week except for the trend now in 2020.  If we assume this drop in 2020 is due to social distancing orders and implosion of the economy, then why not do this all the time?

 

 

  Right, I'm saying the chart I posted from the CDC showed an upward trend in early March for pneumonia and flu, but is ~4 weeks behind. They are usually showing data from the previous month. We can try to plot data in real time, but I don't know that it means much, because we are also going to be looking at an incomplete data set.

 

  Anyway, if we were to look at the page I linked in a few weeks, I do think numbers will be down from historical levels for the reasons we already discussed, but they will also be higher than the chart in  the OP is showing because more data will be coming in for March.

[Dashinka 23,238]

5 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  Right, I'm saying the chart I posted from the CDC showed an upward trend in early March for pneumonia and flu, but is ~4 weeks behind. They are usually showing data from the previous month. We can try to plot data in real time, but I don't know that it means much, because we are also going to be looking at an incomplete data set.

 

  Anyway, if we were to look at the page I linked in a few weeks, I do think numbers will be down from historical levels for the reasons we already discussed, but they will also be higher than the chart in  the OP is showing because more data will be coming in for March.

But who really cares about specific P&I deaths if it has no real impact on the total weekly death number.  MI has already come out and said March deaths for 2020 are way down from their historical average even with the spike in pneumonia deaths due to Covid19.  Are you suggesting there are a lot of pneumonia deaths that have not been counted yet?

[Steeleballz 7,550]

2 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

But who really cares about specific P&I deaths if it has no real impact on the total weekly death number.  MI has already come out and said March deaths for 2020 are way down from their historical average even with the spike in pneumonia deaths due to Covid19.  Are you suggesting there are a lot of pneumonia deaths that have not been counted yet?

 

   For weekly P&I and for total deaths, you are looking at provisional data. The more recent the date, the less accurate the data is. AFAIK, they only release a final data set for the annual figures, and that is the most accurate estimate they have, with the drawback of being the least timely. Looking at prior years as an example, the data for 2017 was finalized in June 2019.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

Updated, for those interested.

 

 

 

[Dashinka 23,238]

4 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   For weekly P&I and for total deaths, you are looking at provisional data. The more recent the date, the less accurate the data is. AFAIK, they only release a final data set for the annual figures, and that is the most accurate estimate they have, with the drawback of being the least timely. Looking at prior years as an example, the data for 2017 was finalized in June 2019.

Then what is the point.  Deaths are registered everyday, but sure, let’s assume this is the case for 2018, 2019, and 2020 numbers.  This is the CDCs best guess (just like the mortality from the flu) at total weekly deaths, and looking at 2014-2017, total deaths follow the same trend.  I would expect the years that are not yet verified to be similar.  Btw, the numbers I mentioned a few times about MI do not come from the CDC, but rather from Michigan’s public health department which even though preliminary most likely will not change much and does include deaths with  Covid19.

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/11/michigan-death-down-in-march-despite-coronavirus/5120360002/

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Then what is the point.  Deaths are registered everyday, but sure, let’s assume this is the case for 2018, 2019, and 2020 numbers.  This is the CDCs best guess (just like the mortality from the flu) at total weekly deaths, and looking at 2014-2017, total deaths follow the same trend.  I would expect the years that are not yet verified to be similar.  Btw, the numbers I mentioned a few times about MI do not come from the CDC, but rather from Michigan’s public health department which even though preliminary most likely will not change much and does include deaths with  Covid19.

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/11/michigan-death-down-in-march-despite-coronavirus/5120360002/

If one paid close attention to the data put out by the CDC, (s)he would see that the data changes almost daily.  If you go back and look at the chart in the OP, you'll notice slight variances in the chart.  The differences become much greater when comparing the 13.csv to the 14.csv data sets. 

 

As one example, the week 12 deaths in the 13 file was 40,002.  In the 14 file, week 12 deaths are now 48,488.

 

This is true for ALL data sets that the CDC makes public.  They are updated as data continues to roll in, until they stop updating for a particular timeframe.

[90DayFinancier 910]

7 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Then what is the point.  Deaths are registered everyday, but sure, let’s assume this is the case for 2018, 2019, and 2020 numbers.  This is the CDCs best guess (just like the mortality from the flu) at total weekly deaths, and looking at 2014-2017, total deaths follow the same trend.  I would expect the years that are not yet verified to be similar.  Btw, the numbers I mentioned a few times about MI do not come from the CDC, but rather from Michigan’s public health department which even though preliminary most likely will not change much and does include deaths with  Covid19.

 

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2020/04/11/michigan-death-down-in-march-despite-coronavirus/5120360002/

The point is, a dip in the chart does not tell the story. 

[Dashinka 23,238]

9 hours ago, 90DayFinancier said:

The point is, a dip in the chart does not tell the story. 

Yeah, I know quite a few engineers that got hit for ignoring outliers.  Btw, it is not just a small little dip, it is a fairly significant change in the overall deaths on a weekly basis. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Dashinka