US historical deaths from CDC data

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

[Steeleballz 7,550]

 

      Can you post the link to where you found this?  It doesn't look like it came from the CDC.

[Dashinka 23,235]

2 hours ago, Steeleballz said:

 

      Can you post the link to where you found this?  It doesn't look like it came from the CDC.

Google is your friend.  You have to plot it out yourself to verify the data.  I plotted it slightly differently (by year instead of by flue season), but it pretty much shows the same thing.  It also dovetails with the story I posted about overall deaths in MI for March 2020 being significantly below the historical average.

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData14.csv

NCHSData14.pdf

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Google is your friend.  You have to plot it out yourself to verify the data.  I plotted it slightly differently (by year instead of by flue season), but it pretty much shows the same thing.  It also dovetails with the story I posted about overall deaths in MI for March 2020 being significantly below the historical average.

 

 

 

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2019-2020/data/NCHSData14.csv

NCHSData14.pdf 60.37 kB · 3 downloads

 

  The TOS is quite specific. Google is not my friend, and the link should be posted. 

   

[Dashinka 23,235]

Just now, Steeleballz said:

 

  The TOS is quite specific. Google is not my friend, and the link should be posted. 

   

And it was.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

1 minute ago, Dashinka said:

And it was.

 

    I don't see the link to the one in the original post. Do you? 

[Dashinka 23,235]

4 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

    I don't see the link to the one in the original post. Do you? 

Ok, you then know what to do.  As to the actual topic, what are your thoughts?

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

26 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  The TOS is quite specific. Google is not my friend, and the link should be posted. 

   

 

[OriZ 3,157]

12 hours ago, Voice of Reason said:

Seems to me like the logical conclusion here is that containment measures for covid-19 are also lowering the number of deaths from flu - makes perfect sense to me.

 

Also as I said before, while we can expect the majority of cases to be unique cases, I'm sure there will be some overlap meaning vulnerable people that were susceptible to the flu and ended up with corona. So it could also be that some were caused by/ attributed to corona virus instead. 

[Steeleballz 7,550]

16 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

Ok, you then know what to do.  As to the actual topic, what are your thoughts?

 

   The data is not complete for March, so not worth extrapolating as a trend yet. I would expect social distancing to have an impact on flu related illness as well though. I do expect final flu related mortality numbers to have decreased for the months that people are staying home. Same as I expect traffic fatalities to have decreased. I wouldn't read a lot into it other than that. Certainly don't agree with many of the conspiracy discussions being posted on the sites that are using this chart.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

4 minutes ago, Burnt Reynolds said:

 

 

  This chart was not created by the CDC and does not exist at those links. This chart was created by a /reddit user in the conspiracy forums. Again the TOS is specific about this. 

[Dashinka 23,235]

8 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   The data is not complete for March, so not worth extrapolating as a trend yet. I would expect social distancing to have an impact on flu related illness as well though. I do expect final flu related mortality numbers to have decreased for the months that people are staying home. Same as I expect traffic fatalities to have decreased. I wouldn't read a lot into it other than that. Certainly don't agree with many of the conspiracy discussions being posted on the sites that are using this chart.

So do you dispute the CDC data is not complete through Week 13?  I have no idea about and conspiracy discussions as I have not seen those, but the decrease does seem significant.  Maybe it is related to stay at home orders starting in mid- to late March in most states, but even going back to Week 10 of 2020, the total number of deaths in the average range of the data shown.  My only point about this and the story in the local Detroit paper is that all of this government action was to alleviate stress on the health care system, and sure, not everyone that dies, dies in a hospital, but it seems like the overall US mortality is not really much different than the preceding six years.

[Steeleballz 7,550]

10 minutes ago, Dashinka said:

So do you dispute the CDC data is not complete through Week 13?  I have no idea about and conspiracy discussions as I have not seen those, but the decrease does seem significant.  Maybe it is related to stay at home orders starting in mid- to late March in most states, but even going back to Week 10 of 2020, the total number of deaths in the average range of the data shown.  My only point about this and the story in the local Detroit paper is that all of this government action was to alleviate stress on the health care system, and sure, not everyone that dies, dies in a hospital, but it seems like the overall US mortality is not really much different than the preceding six years.

 

   The CDC themselves say it can take up to 6 months to accumulate the data. Again, flu is not reportable in adults so they are not always getting information that way, and it is not always timely. I expect the reporting of voluntary data is less timely than usual at the moment.

 

   However as I said, I expect flu numbers to be down. Even without social distancing, they probably would have dropped off earlier than usual anyway, because all 3 strains were circulating early in the fall this year. That often leads to lower numbers later in the season unless one of the strains mutates significantly. The main strain that is still going around this year is the H1N1P strain, the one that caused the pandemic in 2009. I suspect  many of us have some level of immunity to that strain, either through vaccination this year, vaccination in prior years or from previous exposure. I would expect endemic flu season to be over shortly.

[Dashinka 23,235]

1 minute ago, Steeleballz said:

 

   The CDC themselves say it can take up to 6 months to accumulate the data. Again, flu is not reportable in adults so they are not always getting information that way, and it is not always timely. I expect the reporting of voluntary data is less timely than usual at the moment.

 

   However as I said, I expect flu numbers to be down. Even without social distancing, they probably would have dropped off earlier than usual anyway, because all 3 strains were circulating early in the fall this year. That often leads to lower numbers later in the season unless one of the strains mutates significantly. The main strain that is still going around this year is the H1N1P strain, the one that caused the pandemic in 2009. I suspect  many of us have some level of immunity to that strain, either through vaccination this year, vaccination in prior years or from previous exposure. I would expect endemic flu season to be over shortly.

This is why I focused on total deaths instead of those due to pneumonia or influenza when I plotted the data.

[Burnt Reynolds 5,058]

47 minutes ago, Steeleballz said:

 

  This chart was not created by the CDC

The data used was created by the CDC. Relevant.

 

Quote

and does not exist at those links.

The data does exist at those links. 

 

Quote

This chart was created by a /reddit user in the conspiracy forums.

Ad hominem has no relevance to facts cited. Either it's true or it isn't. 

 

Quote

Again the TOS is specific about this. 

That is about news articles. This is not an article, it is not news. It's an Excel created image with data and a source.

 

It says "US historical deaths from CDC data", and its exactly what it says it is. That data on this graph matches whats in the CSV. It's remarkably easy to sit those things side by side in two windows and compare. Lazy.

 

So unless you're saying the CDC is a conspiracy site, you have no legs to stand on, but I understand very well the reflexive move to shut things down because it doesn't serve a purpose of narrative you prefer.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Burnt Reynolds