Igor's list

[ram1009 42]

Has anybody but me noticed a slowdown on Igor's list?

[Pitaya 2,576]

The relevance of Igor's lists and stats is directly related to the number forum members accurately complete and maintain their timelines. If too few folks complete their timelines statistical validity of Igor's stats and lists is severely weakened. Trends, such as protracted processing times may be missed, or diminished, resulting in decreased accuracy.

 

So. . It helps everyone that uses the forum.

YMMV.

[Ontarkie 13,884]

~~Moved to Site Related Discussion, from K1 P&P - As the question is a site related question.~~

[ram1009 42]

55 minutes ago, Pitaya (火龙果) said:

The relevance of Igor's lists and stats is directly related to the number forum members accurately complete and maintain their timelines. If too few folks complete their timelines statistical validity of Igor's stats and lists is severely weakened. Trends, such as protracted processing times may be missed, or diminished, resulting in decreased accuracy.

 

So. . It helps everyone that uses the forum.

YMMV.

I'm well aware of what you've said.  I have trouble believing that everyone with mid/late March NOA1s suddenly stopped updating their timelines simultaneously.  I think it more likely that CSCs recent expeditious behavior was temporary and they are returning to their previous pace.  Of course I hope I'm wrong.

[Pitaya 2,576]

I would not care to even speculate on the percentage of folks going through immigration processes at USCIS are VJ members. I suspect that it would be very small. If you have a small dataset, such as VJ, that is even smaller because members  don't fill in their timelines accurately or at all, the validity of that small dataset stats becomes less reliable.

 

YMMV

[ram1009 42]

44 minutes ago, Pitaya (火龙果) said:

I would not care to even speculate on the percentage of folks going through immigration processes at USCIS are VJ members. I suspect that it would be very small. If you have a small dataset, such as VJ, that is even smaller because members  don't fill in their timelines accurately or at all, the validity of that small dataset stats becomes less reliable.

 

YMMV

Again, I agree with you completely however no matter how big or small the dataset if you watch the data long enough patterns eventually emerge.  Since I have nothing to do but wait & observe I'm pointing out a pattern I've noticed.  Time will tell.

[Pitaya 2,576]

27 minutes ago, ram1009 said:

Again, I agree with you completely however no matter how big or small the dataset if you watch the data long enough patterns eventually emerge.  Since I have nothing to do but wait & observe I'm pointing out a pattern I've noticed.  Time will tell.

Thanks for filling in your timeline...that will help the dataset.

 

[Captain Ewok 1,857]

On 6/18/2019 at 8:24 AM, Pitaya (火龙果) said:

I would not care to even speculate on the percentage of folks going through immigration processes at USCIS are VJ members. I suspect that it would be very small. If you have a small dataset, such as VJ, that is even smaller because members  don't fill in their timelines accurately or at all, the validity of that small dataset stats becomes less reliable.

 

YMMV

It's a big enough data set for most visas...

 

Trends like these are real:

 

[ram1009 42]

8 hours ago, Captain Ewok said:

It's a big enough data set for most visas...

 

Trends like these are real:

 

You're not the first person to make these points and I will agree with you as I did with them.  However, no matter how small the VJ dataset is compared to the total number of K1 applicants there's no reason to believe the smaller dataset is isolated and will behave differently than the larger dataset.  There's also no reason to believe that all of the VJ members on the list suddenly and simultaneously decided to ignore their timeline updates.  I've been watching the list every day for several weeks and what I noticed is that the first half of March NOA1 filers seemed to get approved at the previous rate but the last half slowed down noticeably.  Only now is the last half of March starting to get worked on.  Why do I care???  Well we happen to be #12 in April so I want March to fill up quickly.  It does seem to me that there is little interest in Igor's list including you.  Yor're the administrator, why not take it down if it has no value?

[TBoneTX 42,991]

A better suggestion to Captain Ewok might be to send a mass reminder to all members to please update their timelines, to include a brief reminder of why this is so important.

[ram1009 42]

44 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

A better suggestion to Captain Ewok might be to send a mass reminder to all members to please update their timelines, to include a brief reminder of why this is so important.

Well, I guess you just did that.

[Captain Ewok 1,857]

2 hours ago, ram1009 said:

You're not the first person to make these points and I will agree with you as I did with them.  However, no matter how small the VJ dataset is compared to the total number of K1 applicants there's no reason to believe the smaller dataset is isolated and will behave differently than the larger dataset.  There's also no reason to believe that all of the VJ members on the list suddenly and simultaneously decided to ignore their timeline updates.  I've been watching the list every day for several weeks and what I noticed is that the first half of March NOA1 filers seemed to get approved at the previous rate but the last half slowed down noticeably.  Only now is the last half of March starting to get worked on.  Why do I care???  Well we happen to be #12 in April so I want March to fill up quickly.  It does seem to me that there is little interest in Igor's list including you.  Yor're the administrator, why not take it down if it has no value?

We very much care about Igor’s list. Do you have any suggestions on areas we can improve it?  It shows the under laying data behind those charts. 

[ram1009 42]

28 minutes ago, Captain Ewok said:

We very much care about Igor’s list. Do you have any suggestions on areas we can improve it?  It shows the under laying data behind those charts. 

I'm very glad to hear you say that as I find myself checking it at least daily but I have listened to others bad mouth it for the same reason you mention (small data set) and failure of members to update their timeline.  I think that at a glance the list is a bit intimidating as there is a lot of data available simultaneously.  You might consider allowing users to make visible the months they select rather than the entire previous year.  Also, I would make the bar graph bigger and add some horizontal graph lines so viewers can get a better idea of actual percentages.  I think the biggest problem is one of human nature.  People are looking for quick & absolute answers and Igor's list requires observation over time and displays patterns rather than answers.  I haven't yet figured out a way to change human nature.

[Captain Ewok 1,857]

9 hours ago, ram1009 said:

I'm very glad to hear you say that as I find myself checking it at least daily but I have listened to others bad mouth it for the same reason you mention (small data set) and failure of members to update their timeline.  I think that at a glance the list is a bit intimidating as there is a lot of data available simultaneously.  You might consider allowing users to make visible the months they select rather than the entire previous year.  Also, I would make the bar graph bigger and add some horizontal graph lines so viewers can get a better idea of actual percentages.  I think the biggest problem is one of human nature.  People are looking for quick & absolute answers and Igor's list requires observation over time and displays patterns rather than answers.  I haven't yet figured out a way to change human nature

It's a statistically significant data set size :-).  Large enough to accurately predict trends.  We also automatically filter outliers and incorrect entries. 

[millefleur 5,034]

On 6/20/2019 at 8:51 AM, TBoneTX said:

A better suggestion to Captain Ewok might be to send a mass reminder to all members to please update their timelines, to include a brief reminder of why this is so important.

Lock people out of their accounts (or at least from posting in forums) unless they update their timelines...? That might be a little mean, just brainstorming here...