accuracy of the processing times

[CamiBeracasa 0]

this prcessing times are accurate?

[Ryan H 3,812]

What is the source?

[CamiBeracasa 0]

What is the source?

the processing times here in vj

[Ryan H 3,812]

***Moved from US Citizenship Discussion to Site-Related Discussion; topic is about the timeline feature of VJ.***

**Moderator hat off**

Given timeframes only reflect updated timelines by others. Some do it scrupulously, others forget, while others choose not to fill one out (completion is voluntary). They may be accurate, they may be off, there's no surefire way to know one way or the other. One important thing to remember is VJ only represents a fraction of what is being processed in a given category.

[Unidentified 2,930]

No they are not accurate because a big portion of the members here either don't fill out their timeline correctly or don't fill them out at all. Plus they are not accurate because there are so many people waiting for visas and AOS that are not members here on VJ.

[Penguin_ie 5,994]

The other issue is, since this was moved from the US Citizenship forum, some USCIS local offices are very small, and there may be only one or two VJ members in a quarter who naturalise through your office; thus, if those people got lucky and got processed very fast- or made a mistake/ got their paperwork stuck, it would be inaccurate as an average.

[Captain Ewok 1,895]

All. Just a comment on the accuracy. hope this helps....

We perform a statistical analysis of the timeline data to ensure estimates are fairly accurate. Unless there is enough data to provide a valid estimate we echo "there is not enough data to provide an estimate". We remove data outiers (many of the timeline folks input they may be wrong) including cases that were expedited. Without getting into details, the timelines get it right within a week'ish for most folks. There is no need to have every entry in the USCIS data base to get this accuracy. You just need to know statistics (which we spent a lot of time getting into our system).

Do we have it perfect -- close!... Is is quite close (we try to nail it within a week for a 3-sigma margin)... yes, in most cases.

[blahblahblog 36]

What is the time window that you use for the estimation? I'm asking because I have noticed that there has been a recent increase in the average time for EAD (70 -> 85) recently reported in trackitt and anecdotally here in the site. I'm wondering how long should such a delay last take to become significant in your estimator?

[NikLR 13,227]

As people update their timelines, that information reflects.

[oncefuturealien 45]

My timeline's estimated processing time has moved by nearly two weeks, creeping along with the calendar...when I first got my NOA1 it jauntily suggested a range beginning on August 4, and now the range begins August 16.

It is disheartening, even though I know it's only a guideline. However, if it keeps up like this, I will never pass it and feel compelled to call someone

[NikLR 13,227]

I'm pretty sure when I filed my timeline moved almost daily as data was collected.