[Master Thread] Environmentalism, Climate Change, etc.

[Boiler 43,598]

Especially when you can sort of see her saying this

[Dashinka 23,306]

Makes some good points.

 

Do We Really Know That Human Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cause Significant Climate Change?

October 24, 2023/

 

We start with the basic maxim that “correlation does not prove causation.” Instead, causation is established by disproof of all relevant alternative (“null”) hypotheses. Everybody knows how this works from drug testing. We can’t prove that drug A cures disease X by administering drug A a thousand times and observing that disease X almost always goes away. Disease X might have gone away for other reasons, or on its own. Even if we administer drug A a million times, and disease X almost always goes away, we have only proved correlation, not causation. To prove causation, we must disprove the null hypothesis by testing drug A against a placebo. The placebo represents the null hypothesis that something else (call it “natural factors”) is curing disease X. When drug A is significantly more effective at curing disease X than the placebo, then we have disproved the null hypothesis, and established, at least provisionally, the effectiveness of drug A.

 

And yet somehow these principles don’t apply in the field of climate science. Instead, all the inside clique of the climate science community have decided to agree that the new way to prove causation is to show really, really good correlation with the preferred hypothesis, in which case subjecting the proposition at issue to a test of invalidation against a null hypothesis can be dispensed with. The climate science community calls its system for establishing causation “detection and attribution” studies. The basic idea is to come up with a model (i.e., a hypothesis) that predicts global warming based on increased greenhouse gases, and then collect data that show a very close match between what the model predicted and the data. Correlation with the model predictions is the claimed proof of causation. There are hundreds of such studies in the climate literature. My January 2, 2021 post linked to a classic of the genre, a 2018 IPCC-sponsored article written by a collection of some 36 co-authors who constitute a virtual “who’s who” of the insiders of the climate science cult (e.g., Michael Mann, Phil Jones, Tom Wigley, Ben Santer, etc., etc., etc.). The title is “Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes.” Key quote:

 

There is a wide range of evidence of qualitative consistencies between observed climate changes and model responses to anthropogenic forcing, including global warming, increasing land-ocean temperature contrast, diminishing Arctic sea-ice extent, glacial retreat and increases in precip- itation in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes.

 

https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-10-24-do-we-really-know-that-human-greenhouse-gas-emissions-cause-significant-climate-change

[TBoneTX 43,254]

8 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Makes some good points.

Yes, indeed.  It has always bugged me when the mainstream media or at-large public have leaped to embrace the results of very poorly designed studies.

[Dashinka 23,306]

Why does everything the government tries to do cost so much?

 

Hydrogen Hubs: Without Huge Subsidies the Math Doesn’t Work

 

The White House has awarded $7 billion dollars of tax money for the first seven U.S. hydrogen hubs. They say it will leverage $43 billion in private money. Yet, the rules only require a 50/50 match. We are far more likely to see a $7 billion private money match. Why put more of your own money at risk than you have to?

 

It is risky because green hydrogen costs at least five times more to produce than the methane reforming method, which makes 95% today. That is $5 versus $1. All of the regional hydrogen infrastructure will need to be built, and the future hydrogen demand will need to be created and incentivized. Because green hydrogen still costs more. Even with upfront and downstream aggressive subsidies. 

 

Because it is tax money we don’t have, it is added to our unprecedented $33 trillion dollar national debt. We are at an inflection point where interest payments are more than our national defense budget. Debt interest is projected to be more than a trillion dollars by the end of the decade. And the Rich Men North of Richmond just keep spending.  

 

https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/10/31/hydrogen_hubs_without_huge_subsidies_the_math_doesnt_work_989660.html

[Boiler 43,598]

Nothing like this but I have been involved in a couple of projects that only made any sense because of subsidies and of course you maxed them out. Subsidies usually come with requirements that make them much more expensive to do, so just taking a little usually makes no sense.

 

I did read that there is a spot in France where they have found Green Hydrogen bit did not seem that overall the expected reserves would be massive.

 

The other thing that sort of is similar is Government accumulated liabilities, for example Pension schemes, a big noise a few years ago and it has only got worse but the story disappears.

 

In the UK many of the larger Councils, think Cities and Counties, are on the verge, where I was born due to mainly two things, they introduced legislation to allow 'equal pay' claims for past employment, comparing say Cleaners to Bin Men, and the spiralling cost of child care costs for those in their custody. They will close Libraries but never the Politicians pet projects.

 

It is sort if inevitable, when did you last hear of an entitlement going away, a law being deleted, same sort of thing can happen to large Companies but they go bust and are replaced.

[Boiler 43,598]

Coventry council used Airbnbs to house ‘vulnerable’ teenage boy accused of rape
Judge accuses local authority of a ‘lackadaisical’ attitude to the 16-year-old’s care after regulated providers refused to give him a place

 

A teenage boy who has been accused of multiple rapes was housed in Airbnbs by a local authority after regulated accommodation providers said it would be too risky for them to house him.

Airbnbs and other temporary accommodation have been deployed because no secure placement can be found anywhere in England that is prepared to accommodate the child, who self-harms, makes weapons, assaults staff members, damages property and has been taken to hospital after expressing suicidal thoughts. He has been arrested on numerous occasions.

At a hearing in the high court last week, family judge Mrs Justice Lieven said she found it “absolutely astonishing” that Coventry council had seen fit to place the vulnerable 16-year-old in a series of unregulated placements all around the country over the last 12 months, from which he has frequently absconded. He was later placed in an unregulated children’s home.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/nov/02/coventry-council-used-airbnbs-to-house-vulnerable-teenage-boy-accused-of

 

Well this just popped up in my Graun feed. It does not say how much this is costing but you can imagine. I find it totally un astonishing, what do you expect? Anyway the article has a lot more detail. OK US is a little bit different bit the same issues arise.

[TBoneTX 43,254]

2 hours ago, Boiler said:

no secure placement can be found anywhere in England that is prepared to accommodate the child, who self-harms, makes weapons, assaults staff members, damages property and has been taken to hospital after expressing suicidal thoughts. He has been arrested on numerous occasions.

Who would be so heartless as to deny accommodations to such a lovely child?

[TBoneTX 43,254]

"How DEHHHHHHHH it?!"

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'Will Greta Thunberg Protest the Eruption?':  Iceland Volcano Appears Poised to Blow

 

[...] If it does erupt, and scientists think it will, it will release a lot of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.  [...]

 

https://twitchy.com/amy-curtis/2023/11/12/will-greta-thunberg-protest-the-eruption-iceland-volcano-appears-poised-to-blow-n2389700

[Dashinka 23,306]

Chickens coming home to roost?

 

Wind power industry in moment of reckoning as stocks fall and earnings crumble

 

With the world trying to transition at pace toward cleaner energy, equipment manufacturers are struggling to keep up with soaring global demand, leading to rising production costs and questions over the economic sustainability of large-scale projects from the industry’s major players.

 

Manufacturing faults, most notably at Siemens Energy’s wind turbine subsidiary Siemens Gamesa, have emerged as companies race to build turbines at a greater pace and scale.

 

The problems at Gamesa led Siemens Energy to scrap its profit forecast earlier this year, and last month the company sought guarantees of up to 15 billion euros ($16 billion) from the German government.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/13/wind-power-industry-in-moment-of-reckoning-as-stocks-fall.html

[TBoneTX 43,254]

9 hours ago, Dashinka said:

Chickens coming home to roost?

Depends whether they're flying with or into the wind.  

[Boiler 43,598]

UK to offer higher subsidies for offshore windfarms after crisis talks

Concerns rose when no wind projects were put forward for government’s recent clean energy auction

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/nov/16/uk-to-offer-higher-subsidies-for-offshore-windfarms-after-crisis-talks

 

Odd that they need subsidies?

Edited November 16, 2023 by Boiler

[TBoneTX 43,254]

35 minutes ago, Boiler said:

Odd that they need subsidies?

They need to be forced to comply with the Agenda.

[TBoneTX 43,254]

This is interesting, and objectively good news.  Sadly, the source article about the study requires a subscription, but maybe someone has one.

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Global Warming Delayed, Who Could Have Guessed?

 

[...] A great example of how The Telegraph covers stories that get ignored or downplayed in the MSM is one published today about climate change.  It describes a new study out of Ohio State University that shows current models, which are used to push apocalyptic predictions of runaway global warming, grossly underestimate the uptake of CO2 by plants.  [...]

 

https://hotair.com/david-strom/2023/11/20/global-warming-delayed-who-could-have-guessed-n593374

[Boiler 43,598]

 

This starts with the police actually doing their job unusually, and then we go to a spokesman for Just Stop Oil. Now you would think they would choose someone who is  a bit less obviously crazy and yet this is the best they could do for national TV which make you wonder what the rest are like.

I have said it before it has become a religion so you are either a true believer or need to be sent to the stocks.

[Boiler 43,598]

"Lydia Gribbin, 28, appeared in court on Friday November 3 alongside four other activists charged with aggravated trespass - a charge that she denies alongside Hannah Taylor, 23; Hanan Ameur, 22; Noah Crane, 18; and Poppy Bliss, 19. Gribbin, however, sparked a particularly strong reaction from district Judge Michael Snow at Westminster Magistrate's Court after asking if the trial could be held at the end of February - so she could travel to India unimpeded."

 

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/judge-slams-just-stop-oil-activist-after-she-asked-for-delay-in-trial-so-she-could-jet-off-to-india-as-protester-28-is-charged-alongside-four-others-for-storming-west-end-performance-of-les-miserables/ar-AA1jmnu6