I129f September 2017 filers

[Thina 13]

Hi September filler!

[Swissmiss82 1,618]

the waiting time starting from NOA1 is currently about 180-200 days.

So the estimate is probably first week of March to get your NOA2.

if you fill your timeline on here, you will get an estimate with updates based on approvals that USCIS is working on

[Thina 13]

11 hours ago, Swissmiss82 said:

the waiting time starting from NOA1 is currently about 180-200 days.

So the estimate is probably first week of March to get your NOA2.

if you fill your timeline on here, you will get an estimate with updates based on approvals that USCIS is working on

 

[Thina 13]

Just now, Thina said:

 

Thank you, I hope it faster because I want to live my love

[nullaccount234 882]

Hey @Naes. I have a question and I'm too lazy to look around the forums. But could you tell me on average how many cases per day the USCIS have to process to keep the current waiting times? I just want to know an approximate figure to get better use of the daily approval updates  

[Naes 12,205]

1 minute ago, LizM said:

Hey @Naes. I have a question and I'm too lazy to look around the forums. But could you tell me on average how many cases per day the USCIS have to process to keep the current waiting times? I just want to know an approximate figure to get better use of the daily approval updates  

I'm on it. 

 

The problem is;

there are 3 points

 

1) touching the cases: when the status change from anything else but received.

 Because if they get to around 1000 received cases left, they finally start the next month and this is important to guess when it will start (slowly but start)

 

2) real approval: their reports talk about approval and denials, all the rest is pending so them keeping cases as pending rfe or other won't really resolve their load 

 

3) non updated cases: march April and May has an extreme amount of non updated online cases.

 I know this not just by people in May saying it because I saw 1300 untouched and about a 1000 pending looking cases in march - which is not and cannot be correct info- our march thread would be going crazy and rfes should be responded within 60 days- as none of this happened I'm 100% sure about them not being properly updated. Hence all I can do when calculating is estimating around a 90 percent of it as approved or somehow done.

 

 

I am on it as I'm calculating with these points in consideration.

i just finished march too so hopefully I'll give you guys a detailed report on what I'm thinking by the weekend  

[Naes 12,205]

Hi everyone,

 

By now, you know I am crazy right?

Ok so that's established... I checked March hehe....hehe... distraction from the most needed fire....

It is getting extremely close to my wedding venue... (I feel so bad for even thinking like this )

 

These are the concluded cases - only concluded cases- that will appear as either denial or approval on USCIS reports for this quarter.

This data has March to November mostly up to date.

 

	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Total
Oct W1	74	163	111	7	8	7	16	31		417
Oct W2	58	109	191	4	2	2		62		428
Oct W3	70	95	161	1	1			42		370
Oct W4	60	84	239	2		1		47		433
Nov W1	63	105	345	12	9	11	3	56	8	612
Nov W2	23	59	223	8	3		3	1	41	361
Nov W3	29	83	278	20	2	4	1		26	443
Nov W4	17	74	172	69	1					333
Nov W5	31	63	187	115	2					398
Dec W1	4	35	93	105						237
Total	429	870	2000	343	28	25	23	239	75	4032

 

As it shows around 4000. I want to add something to that number.

I've checked all of March and April.

 

And this is how it looks (I have also checked February but not relevant to our numbers at the moment.)

 

	March	April	Total
Received	2105	830	2935
Pending	859	593	1452
Approved	1019	1898	2917
Excluded	679	636	1315
Total	4662	3957	8619

 

Apparently, especially in March the tracker wasn't working properly,  and I believe we can easily say the same for April & a 20% of May. 

However, as most of March was done by October, I'll only give a 500 cases concluded in this Q for them, and about a 1000 for April.

I believe we can also easily say a 500 cases in May goes into the same category.

 

So I'll be generous about denials and Make this a total of 3000 cases not updated on the tracker.

which makes a 4000(from above)+3000=7000

 

As a low expected number per quarter would be around 10000 cases. we have 3000 to go.

 

This is a close touch to the end of June to July.

I hope they won't suddenly slow down again, 

however at this point I am expecting for June to be touched every where by Christmas (just like May a few weeks ago, touched everywhere but a few Juners waiting around)

 

And for July to start slowly please understand this really means slowly.

Just like May and June it will start with small amount of 30-40s would be my estimation.

 

I really hope things can pick up further, because at this moment I believe VJ timelines are +-a week correct.

 

But hey I am still hoping for a Valentine day approval----romantic in me never dies and I like to live dangerously

 

*Notice for new comers:

(I'm sorry if anyone is new and never heard or read about the past calculations and discussions has been made here.)

 However, 2 important things to know would be

  1) They don't update every status correctly, we have seen many approvals without an update on the USCIS case tracker

  2) The new month tends to start when "case received" status is around 1000s 

[Fippsie 164]

So.. about 3 months to go.. I am currently visiting my love in the US and I have to leave January 11th, because there is no later flight. Even though my Visa doesn't end before early February.  This means at least 2 months separated.. My heart hurts...

[BK&MC 103]

10 hours ago, Naes said:

Hi everyone,

 

By now, you know I am crazy right?

Ok so that's established... I checked March hehe....hehe... distraction from the most needed fire....

It is getting extremely close to my wedding venue... (I feel so bad for even thinking like this )

 

These are the concluded cases - only concluded cases- that will appear as either denial or approval on USCIS reports for this quarter.

This data has March to November mostly up to date.

 

	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Total
Oct W1	74	163	111	7	8	7	16	31		417
Oct W2	58	109	191	4	2	2		62		428
Oct W3	70	95	161	1	1			42		370
Oct W4	60	84	239	2		1		47		433
Nov W1	63	105	345	12	9	11	3	56	8	612
Nov W2	23	59	223	8	3		3	1	41	361
Nov W3	29	83	278	20	2	4	1		26	443
Nov W4	17	74	172	69	1					333
Nov W5	31	63	187	115	2					398
Dec W1	4	35	93	105						237
Total	429	870	2000	343	28	25	23	239	75	4032

 

As it shows around 4000. I want to add something to that number.

I've checked all of March and April.

 

And this is how it looks (I have also checked February but not relevant to our numbers at the moment.)

 

	March	April	Total
Received	2105	830	2935
Pending	859	593	1452
Approved	1019	1898	2917
Excluded	679	636	1315
Total	4662	3957	8619

 

Apparently, especially in March the tracker wasn't working properly,  and I believe we can easily say the same for April & a 20% of May. 

However, as most of March was done by October, I'll only give a 500 cases concluded in this Q for them, and about a 1000 for April.

I believe we can also easily say a 500 cases in May goes into the same category.

 

So I'll be generous about denials and Make this a total of 3000 cases not updated on the tracker.

which makes a 4000(from above)+3000=7000

 

As a low expected number per quarter would be around 10000 cases. we have 3000 to go.

 

This is a close touch to the end of June to July.

I hope they won't suddenly slow down again, 

however at this point I am expecting for June to be touched every where by Christmas (just like May a few weeks ago, touched everywhere but a few Juners waiting around)

 

And for July to start slowly please understand this really means slowly.

Just like May and June it will start with small amount of 30-40s would be my estimation.

 

I really hope things can pick up further, because at this moment I believe VJ timelines are +-a week correct.

 

But hey I am still hoping for a Valentine day approval----romantic in me never dies and I like to live dangerously

 

*Notice for new comers:

(I'm sorry if anyone is new and never heard or read about the past calculations and discussions has been made here.)

 However, 2 important things to know would be

  1) They don't update every status correctly, we have seen many approvals without an update on the USCIS case tracker

  2) The new month tends to start when "case received" status is around 1000s 

Hi Naes, first off, I hope all is alright with your fiance and family in Cali. I can't imagine the worry, the stress and the anxiety it must be putting you through.

 

Second, thank you for all the numbers and analysis!

 

They look like they are picking up speed for June so that's a good sign.

You mentioned they'll be really slow again for July, but do you mean when they first start on July, or July in general?

By when do you suppose they'll start on July?

 

I was hopeful to get my NOA2 in February but my timeline on VJ got pushed back day by day 

Was from Feb 23, and now it's March 2. SO everyday, my hope for Feb NOA2 get squashed a little lol.

[Naes 12,205]

18 minutes ago, BK&MC said:

Hi Naes, first off, I hope all is alright with your fiance and family in Cali. I can't imagine the worry, the stress and the anxiety it must be putting you through.

 

Second, thank you for all the numbers and analysis!

 

They look like they are picking up speed for June so that's a good sign.

You mentioned they'll be really slow again for July, but do you mean when they first start on July, or July in general?

By when do you suppose they'll start on July?

 

I was hopeful to get my NOA2 in February but my timeline on VJ got pushed back day by day 

Was from Feb 23, and now it's March 2. SO everyday, my hope for Feb NOA2 get squashed a little lol.

Hi,

 

thank you he is ok right now, I'm so glad nobody is injured badly so far. And sad that many people lost their home.

 

about july yes I meant the start, cause I don't want anyone to expect huge numbers and get disappointed.

[zamardii12 25]

On 12/7/2017 at 9:00 AM, Naes said:

Hi everyone,

 

By now, you know I am crazy right?

Ok so that's established... I checked March hehe....hehe... distraction from the most needed fire....

It is getting extremely close to my wedding venue... (I feel so bad for even thinking like this )

 

These are the concluded cases - only concluded cases- that will appear as either denial or approval on USCIS reports for this quarter.

This data has March to November mostly up to date.

 

	March	April	May	June	July	Aug	Sept	Oct	Nov	Total
Oct W1	74	163	111	7	8	7	16	31		417
Oct W2	58	109	191	4	2	2		62		428
Oct W3	70	95	161	1	1			42		370
Oct W4	60	84	239	2		1		47		433
Nov W1	63	105	345	12	9	11	3	56	8	612
Nov W2	23	59	223	8	3		3	1	41	361
Nov W3	29	83	278	20	2	4	1		26	443
Nov W4	17	74	172	69	1					333
Nov W5	31	63	187	115	2					398
Dec W1	4	35	93	105						237
Total	429	870	2000	343	28	25	23	239	75	4032

 

As it shows around 4000. I want to add something to that number.

I've checked all of March and April.

 

And this is how it looks (I have also checked February but not relevant to our numbers at the moment.)

 

	March	April	Total
Received	2105	830	2935
Pending	859	593	1452
Approved	1019	1898	2917
Excluded	679	636	1315
Total	4662	3957	8619

 

Apparently, especially in March the tracker wasn't working properly,  and I believe we can easily say the same for April & a 20% of May. 

However, as most of March was done by October, I'll only give a 500 cases concluded in this Q for them, and about a 1000 for April.

I believe we can also easily say a 500 cases in May goes into the same category.

 

So I'll be generous about denials and Make this a total of 3000 cases not updated on the tracker.

which makes a 4000(from above)+3000=7000

 

As a low expected number per quarter would be around 10000 cases. we have 3000 to go.

 

This is a close touch to the end of June to July.

I hope they won't suddenly slow down again, 

however at this point I am expecting for June to be touched every where by Christmas (just like May a few weeks ago, touched everywhere but a few Juners waiting around)

 

And for July to start slowly please understand this really means slowly.

Just like May and June it will start with small amount of 30-40s would be my estimation.

 

I really hope things can pick up further, because at this moment I believe VJ timelines are +-a week correct.

 

But hey I am still hoping for a Valentine day approval----romantic in me never dies and I like to live dangerously

 

*Notice for new comers:

(I'm sorry if anyone is new and never heard or read about the past calculations and discussions has been made here.)

 However, 2 important things to know would be

  1) They don't update every status correctly, we have seen many approvals without an update on the USCIS case tracker

  2) The new month tends to start when "case received" status is around 1000s 

I have absolutely no idea how to read any of this information. Can someone give me the short and simple version? 

[needlesss 3]

2 hours ago, zamardii12 said:

I have absolutely no idea how to read any of this information. Can someone give me the short and simple version? 

Same here haha. Help please anyone? 

[Naes 12,205]

3 hours ago, zamardii12 said:

I have absolutely no idea how to read any of this information. Can someone give me the short and simple version? 

 

1 hour ago, needlesss said:

Same here haha. Help please anyone? 

Short and simple would be "wait" continues.

 

these info is meant for June, and close to July. I put it in other months cause some people are interested, but for someone who's not following the cases at the moment it can be overwhelming, in that case all there is "wait"

 

none of the info is really important without the rest of it. If there's anything specific, I'm always here to answer. 

 

So as it's not a graph for anyone to "read", but a text to read I'll just repeat it:

 

•may and June is being processed

•july may start after Christmas but they're slow so it is bad than expected

•there are still aproximately 3000 cases for them to approve in this quarter

 

[Swissmiss82 1,618]

@Naes how many more days until you see your boo?

[Naes 12,205]

Just now, Swissmiss82 said:

@Naes how many more days until you see your boo?

9 days 8 hours 55 min