Will Trump last 4 years?

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

On 4/7/2017 at 7:36 PM, ccneat said:

1. At Trumps weight and age there is a 2% of passing every year.  If you compound the effects of the stress of the office b 2X you get a 16% chance of mortality. 
2. Impeachment:  The only thing I see solid now is the chance that irrefutable evidence that will connect Russian espionage with quid pro quo actions direct by Trump.  I put the chance of this at 1/20 or 5 %
3. Boredom and Frustration:  Trump can succeed, misses his regular routines looses interest and just quits  3% 
4. Assassination I don't think this is likely but they seem kinna loosy goosey down at the Winter Whitehouse

That puts the chance at 1 in 4 or 25%

 

Do you have a link to support your mortality claims ? 

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

15 minutes ago, eieio said:

Make America Great Again!!

 

Build the Wall!!

 

Lock her up!!!

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

11 minutes ago, Nature Boy Flair said:

Do you have a link to support your mortality claims ? 

the standard mortality tables ?  you want me to look it up?  Just try to buy life insurance.  

 

No one can say that he has 2x the chance  dying..that is a swag..but the office does not make anyone younger. 

Found this on the SSA site

70	0.023528	73,461	14.24	0.015728	82,864	16.43
71	0.025693	71,732	13.57	0.017338	81,561	15.68
72	0.028041	69,889	12.92	0.019108	80,147	14.95
73	0.030567	67,930	12.27	0.021041	78,616	14.23
74	0.033347	65,853	11.65	0.023191	76,961	13.53
75	0.036572	63,657	11.03	0.025713	75,177	12.83
76	0.040276	61,329	10.43	0.028609	73,244	12.16
77	0.044348	58,859	9.85	0.031760	71,148	11.50
78	0.048797	56,249	9.28	0.035157	68,888	10.86
79	0.053739	53,504	8.73	0.038920	66,467	10.24
80	0.059403	50,629	8.20	0.043289	63,880	9.64

Edited April 10, 2017 by ccneat

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

13 minutes ago, ccneat said:

the standard mortality tables ?  you want me to look it up?  Just try to buy life insurance.  

 

No one can say that he has 2x the chance  dying..that is a swag..but the office does not make anyone younger. 

Found this on the SSA site

70	0.023528	73,461	14.24	0.015728	82,864	16.43
71	0.025693	71,732	13.57	0.017338	81,561	15.68
72	0.028041	69,889	12.92	0.019108	80,147	14.95
73	0.030567	67,930	12.27	0.021041	78,616	14.23
74	0.033347	65,853	11.65	0.023191	76,961	13.53
75	0.036572	63,657	11.03	0.025713	75,177	12.83
76	0.040276	61,329	10.43	0.028609	73,244	12.16
77	0.044348	58,859	9.85	0.031760	71,148	11.50
78	0.048797	56,249	9.28	0.035157	68,888	10.86
79	0.053739	53,504	8.73	0.038920	66,467	10.24
80	0.059403	50,629	8.20	0.043289	63,880	9.64

I was joking , but man you do good work 

[IAMX 3,055]

36 minutes ago, Inikamoze said:

I agree they are many who just don't care. If the message was to disrupt the establishment they were all for it, even if that included causing themselves pain (not sure all realised that though!). Cutting off your nose to spite your face is a risk the masses were willing to take? I think there are many many people (running into the millions) who did not know what they were going to get with him in power.

 

with no history in public service they voted blindly as to what they were going to get. If they knew with 20 20 vision east Hillary gave you its the total opposite with Trump. There will be countless families who voted on mass together just to follow the wave of populism that accompanied his strategy. Worked well for him that's true, not at any point did he need to lay out to the nation his policies. A slogan was all it took.

Unfortunately, the overwhelming majority of Americans believe either 1) there's only two candidates to vote for, or 2) that not voting the way the two parties and the media want you to vote is throwing your vote away, even though that logic itself is what's actually throwing your vote away, or at least, handing it over for the parties and media to decide for you.

 

So under those auspices (if one considers it positive, which I don't), yes, the logic of "not Hillary", "therefore Trump" was in play. It's hard to believe that before election season started this is who that many people thought would be the best candidates. It's all about the mindscrew. Don't ever need to take away one's right to vote, just manipulate them into thinking they have no real choices.

 

That being said, I think you're making Trump out to be much worse than he's really been, and in thinking the slogan is all it took for Trump, you vastly underestimate him and mischaracterize voters. Trump is a marketing genius, I think even those who despise him would agree with that. The funny thing is, people like Michael Moore saw the effect his campaign of "America first" was having over Hillary's "open borders"/"I'm offended by everything" campaign in the rust belt states. Trump had incredible stamina for such an old guy to make all the campaign stops he did between the convention and election. Hillary just sat there like "I got this in the bag", avoided campaigns, avoided debates. This was seen by just about all the MSM pundits on election day as well, but then the narrative hilariously turned again to Russia. Dems would rather distract with a conspiracy theory they've never been able to prove, yet followers blindly believe, than a mea culpa that they figured they had the "blue wall" in the bag. Or, as the regressive left move the goalposts to call it, "Russia hacked the election and made people vote Trump!" "Russia meddled in the US election and made people vote Trump!".

[ready4ONE 5,400]

I believe Donald Trump is an amazing marketer of himself, but not in the genious sense. He is such a bizarre character his words and actions, and for business the vast wealth he inherited, are his marketing draw. No genious about it, Donald is all about selling himself and the Trump brand. No genious speaks like he does, tweets like he does, nor does the gaudy and garish interior decorating and self aggrandizing Donald Trump is famous for.

[Inikamoze 86]

I don't believe he is a media genius at all. Spouting vile and obnoxious comments just to be headline news and stay on all the front pages doesn't take much intellectual nouse. The clever bit was to ensure his team kept the media on board and discuss him night after night. It was their fascination with him that kept up the energy. If he had been dismissed as a kook with little exposure (a la Bobby Jindal et al) he wouldn't be close to the White House.

Alas the media thought they would have their fun with this celebrity and shoot him down when the primary run in started. By then he'd received all the free advertising he needed to mount the ground support that wouldn't leave him regardless of whatever insane views came out of his mouth!

 

Edited April 10, 2017 by Inikamoze

[IAMX 3,055]

13 minutes ago, Inikamoze said:

I don't believe he is a media genius at all. Spouting vile and obnoxious comments just to be headline news and stay on all the front pages doesn't take much intellectual nouse. The clever bit was to ensure his team kept the media on board and discuss him night after night. It was their fascination with him that kept up the energy. If he had been dismissed as a kook with little exposure (a la Bobby Jindal et al) he wouldn't be close to the White House.

Alas the media thought they would have their fun with this celebrity and shoot him down when the primary run in started. By then he'd received all the free advertising he needed to mount the ground support that wouldn't leave him regardless of whatever insane views came out of his mouth!

 

You are 100% wrong. Way, way wrong. Before the media even bothered with Trump, he was doing his own Youtube/Vine-esque viral videos which got tons of attention by itself. When he announced his candidacy the media then made fun of him for it, and he started getting attention -- at that time, still mainly jokes from people like Maddow and Matthews who likewise couldn't understand the guy. Clearly, like them, you're only going to see what you want to see.

[Amica Nostra 4,803]

17 minutes ago, IAMX said:

You are 100% wrong. Way, way wrong. Before the media even bothered with Trump, he was doing his own Youtube/Vine-esque viral videos which got tons of attention by itself. When he announced his candidacy the media then made fun of him for it, and he started getting attention -- at that time, still mainly jokes from people like Maddow and Matthews who likewise couldn't understand the guy. Clearly, like them, you're only going to see what you want to see.

Trump is the greatest as self promotion.  If you don't believe me ask his publicist "John Miller 

 

[OriZ 3,157]

2 hours ago, ready4ONE said:

I believe Donald Trump is an amazing marketer of himself, but not in the genious sense. He is such a bizarre character his words and actions, and for business the vast wealth he inherited, are his marketing draw. No genious about it, Donald is all about selling himself and the Trump brand. No genious speaks like he does, tweets like he does, nor does the gaudy and garish interior decorating and self aggrandizing Donald Trump is famous for.

I prefer jewel tones myself but to each their own lol

[Inikamoze 86]

2 hours ago, IAMX said:

You are 100% wrong. Way, way wrong. Before the media even bothered with Trump, he was doing his own Youtube/Vine-esque viral videos which got tons of attention by itself. When he announced his candidacy the media then made fun of him for it, and he started getting attention -- at that time, still mainly jokes from people like Maddow and Matthews who likewise couldn't understand the guy. Clearly, like them, you're only going to see what you want to see.

Clearly he's your messiah or something, I'm not on here to worry about how Trumpettes want him to be seen.

As your own quote above says every member of his barmy army are blinded by his "charisma".

 

 

[ready4ONE 5,400]

1 hour ago, OriZ said:

I prefer jewel tones myself but to each their own lol

I think Zsa Zsa Gabor would have found Trumps taste in decor a bit much. He is the living embodiment of horrific taste.

[IAMX 3,055]

14 hours ago, Inikamoze said:

Clearly he's your messiah or something, I'm not on here to worry about how Trumpettes want him to be seen.

As your own quote above says every member of his barmy army are blinded by his "charisma".

 

 

Recognizing his impact has nothing to do with admiring him, or blindness, it's called an education.

[smilesammich 10,727]

a more specific term than "education" in this context is "indoctrination" or "brainwashed"

[Inikamoze 86]

3 hours ago, IAMX said:

Recognizing his impact has nothing to do with admiring him, or blindness, it's called an education.

Something tells me you'd think a obtaining a degree from an online "university" which awards you honours after 3 months study (basically register and a certificate is in the post) constitutes an "education". Listen, to some simple minded folk that genuinely rings true (you hear of so many people being duped like that).

 

That isn't my interpretation of what an education is, Trump supporters may think they have "schooled" the nation but they are yet to find out exactly how this man operates. All for his self interests, he's never served anyone... ever. The artful draft dodger has plenty up his sleeve to stick it to his base. Watch how he spins the tax reform. Hey let the billionaires have more money as it will then trickle down to you peasants. Trumpettes can stand in line with begging bowl in hand thanking him for every morsel thrown their way but I'm not buying it.

 

i'll await the organisation of the next large scale rally.... you never know he might watch some Leni Riefenstahl movies to get some tips on how to conduct them.

 

Edited April 11, 2017 by Inikamoze