I-129F March 2017 Filers

[Leennnn 4]

On 7/28/2017 at 8:26 PM, AnJ Co said:

What's your NOA1 date?  I remember a few weeks ago it was 3/20.

 

regardless, hang in there, you aren't alone

 

My NoA1 3/20 sorry my mistake 

[TriloByte 1,818]

3 hours ago, twoDs said:

 

We know for "fact" (quotes due to knowing USCIS lies) that the approvals were down 33% from calendar Q4 (10,179) to Q1 (6,864) -- remember the USCIS report is fiscal quarters. That works out to 113 per day to 76 per day. And there was a big backlog increase.

 

We do have some visibility due to VJ, but something very odd is going on here. Here's some wild statistics from the VJ database:

Oct-Dec 2016 NOA2s: 532 (v. USCIS 10,179, so 5.2%)

Jan-Mar 2017 NOA2s: 449 (v. USCIS 6,864, so 6.5%)

Apr-Jul 2017 NOA2: 795

 

Those are some strange, strange numbers imo. My bet is the people with slow approvals have been signing up. If not, then USCIS has been working on backlog this quarter and is processing more approvals than it has in the past year(!). Not sure I buy that.

 

The NOA1s in VJ are interesting as well:

Jun-Sep 2016: 809

Oct-Dec 2016: 862 (v. USCIS 12,837, 6.7%)

Jan-Mar 2017: 1179 (v USCIS 13,194, 8.9%)

Mar-Jun 2017: 704

 

The NOA1 coverage % seems to strongly support big growth in people signing up to VJ. If we use the Jan-Mar NOA1s participation on VJ as a proxy for Apr-Jul NOA2s, that suggests that currently USCIS is approving about 100 cases a day for fiscal Q2.

 

At this point, just looking at the last 11 NOA2s issued, I don't have a lot of doubt AnJ is right about USCIS gaming the numbers. We have 7 approvals for NOA1s 3/24 or newer and two for February and only one between those.

 

I think you're theory is right, they don't want us to see the man behind the curtain because they know it's show that they both greatly slowed approvals and that they're not processing things in order.

4

I agree, my guess for why more people are joining here is that they are wondering why it's 4 - 5 months later and they don't have their approvals. They are coming here in desperation, searching for answers. Everything did, in fact, start slowing down over at USCIS around Jan-Mar 2017, so it makes sense that the join rate would be higher.

 

Now, because they have slowed down, and then hid things, they are having to field more calls and constantly deal with people asking "Why have I not been approved", which is probably putting them further behind. I've always said that honesty is the best policy. I bet they would do much better to just communicate to the people who are waiting, what the hold up is, like any other normal organization in the world. People generally don't hide things unless there's something to hide though. 

Edited July 29, 2017 by TriloByte

[twoDs 590]

2 minutes ago, TriloByte said:

My guess for why more people are joining here is that they are wondering why it's 4 - 5 months later and they don't have their approvals. They are coming here in desperation, searching for answers. Everything did, in fact, start slowing down over at USCIS around Jan-Mar 2017, so it makes sense that the join rate would be higher.

 

Now, because they have slowed down, and then hid things, they are having to field more calls and constantly deal with people asking "Why have I not been approved", which is probably putting them further behind. I've always said that honesty is the best policy. I bet they would do much better to just communicate to the people who are waiting, what the hold up is, like any other normal organization in the world. People generally don't hide things unless there's something to hide though. 

 

I'm sure that's the reason people are joining VJ as well. It's why I ended up coming here!

 

I think the "something to hide" is simply the fact that for whatever reason, they prioritized processing I-129 (not F) applications -- likely H1B visas -- above all else, and in a very major way (the backlog increase in family visas makes K1s look like child's play, and the backlog decrease for I-129/H1Bs in the past quarter was enough to process every K1 for the past year.) I commented in another thread in the main forum that when you start digging into this it's not at all clear who the decisionmaker was behind it. Looking at the USCIS visa report makes it pretty obvious there was a major resource shift, and USCIS' press releases on suspending/resuming expedited H1B processing dovetail with the reports.

 

Telling a bunch of people the reason their fiancee, wife, or family can't come is because they prioritized visas for non-citizen, non-immigrant people coming to the US to work probably doesn't play too well. I know I'm super pissed about it. They jacked up the K1 fee, have already doubled processing times and are on track to triple them. If I were in charge of communications/PR at USCIS this is the last story I'd want to show up in the news, especially since H1Bs are a huge political football right now and selling a story of lovers kept apart by the government is a slam-dunk.

[pajobra 1,395]

5 minutes ago, twoDs said:

 

I'm sure that's the reason people are joining VJ as well. It's why I ended up coming here!

 

I think the "something to hide" is simply the fact that for whatever reason, they prioritized processing I-129 (not F) applications -- likely H1B visas -- above all else, and in a very major way (the backlog increase in family visas makes K1s look like child's play, and the backlog decrease for I-129/H1Bs in the past quarter was enough to process every K1 for the past year.) I commented in another thread in the main forum that when you start digging into this it's not at all clear who the decisionmaker was behind it. Looking at the USCIS visa report makes it pretty obvious there was a major resource shift, and USCIS' press releases on suspending/resuming expedited H1B processing dovetail with the reports.

 

Telling a bunch of people the reason their fiancee, wife, or family can't come is because they prioritized visas for non-citizen, non-immigrant people coming to the US to work probably doesn't play too well. I know I'm super pissed about it. They jacked up the K1 fee, have already doubled processing times and are on track to triple them. If I were in charge of communications/PR at USCIS this is the last story I'd want to show up in the news, especially since H1Bs are a huge political football right now and selling a story of lovers kept apart by the government is a slam-dunk.

Show up in the news. Does make you think about contacting the newspaper over unnecessary wait times with more paid fees or the tv station. lol

[twoDs 590]

Just now, pajobra said:

Show up in the news. Does make you think about contacting the newspaper over unnecessary wait times with more paid fees or the tv station. lol

 

...and in April, 2020 you get a NOA-zero letter from USCIS saying your case has been lost, is past a three-year time limit and to please re-file.

 

I wish I could LOL but this is probably not far from the case. I'd definitely speak under condition of anonymity if talking to the press.

[AnJ Co 1,676]

37 minutes ago, twoDs said:

Telling a bunch of people the reason their fiancee, wife, or family can't come is because they prioritized visas for non-citizen, non-immigrant people coming to the US to work probably doesn't play too well. I know I'm super pissed about it. They jacked up the K1 fee, have already doubled processing times and are on track to triple them. If I were in charge of communications/PR at USCIS this is the last story I'd want to show up in the news, especially since H1Bs are a huge political football right now and selling a story of lovers kept apart by the government is a slam-dunk.

This is the most efficient explanation of our predicament I have seen.  Boiled down to bare bones and concisely to the point!

28 minutes ago, twoDs said:

 

...and in April, 2020 you get a NOA-zero letter from USCIS saying your case has been lost, is past a three-year time limit and to please re-file.

 

I wish I could LOL but this is probably not far from the case. I'd definitely speak under condition of anonymity if talking to the press.

i.e. IRS targeting conservatives (I wouldn't make this statement if I did not have personal experience).  

It's just not one arm that can slap you,  Unfortunately Sam has many arms.  Oh, and when you refile, please don't forget the check!

[twoDs 590]

32 minutes ago, AnJ Co said:

This is the most efficient explanation of our predicament I have seen.  Boiled down to bare bones and concisely to the point!

i.e. IRS targeting conservatives (I wouldn't make this statement if I did not have personal experience).  

It's just not one arm that can slap you,  Unfortunately Sam has many arms.  Oh, and when you refile, please don't forget the check!

 

This is a fear of mine. I've been reluctant to ask or discuss political affiliations here (nor do I think this is the place to) but I would not be at all surprised if there were parallels. Every immigration lawyer I spoke with was the antithesis of conservative and I suspect USCIS reflects this as well, and while I'd be deeply disappointed if there were any discrimination towards any political affiliation regardless of the agency involved, as you've noted we already have examples of it happening in other agencies. If there were such discrimination in visa processing, that would a story that would make the processing delays as a result of favoring I-129 (not F) applications seem trivial in comparison.

 

On the whole I think the core problem is I described, simply resources going places other than K1 processing. I'm sure like most, I really would like to know the "why" the handful of people on any given day in the Jan-Mar filers that still don't have their their NOA2s. Is it just random placement of a file in a forgotten bin? Age of applicants? Affiliations? Income? Everything is laid at the feet of the background check processing.

[jebediah 5]

On 6/19/2017 at 0:28 PM, jebediah said:

 

received a RFE for documents related to my first divorce.  i guess I feel a little relieved at least they are working on it!!  Does anyone know what the typical RFE delay is? 

I bought a ticket to fly out and visit (7 months is a long time) then Received my NOA2 7/28 .. maybe now she can fly back with me! 

[TriloByte 1,818]

24 minutes ago, twoDs said:

 

This is a fear of mine. I've been reluctant to ask or discuss political affiliations here (nor do I think this is the place to) but I would not be at all surprised if there were parallels. Every immigration lawyer I spoke with was the antithesis of conservative and I suspect USCIS reflects this as well, and while I'd be deeply disappointed if there were any discrimination towards any political affiliation regardless of the agency involved, as you've noted we already have examples of it happening in other agencies. If there were such discrimination in visa processing, that would a story that would make the processing delays as a result of favoring I-129 (not F) applications seem trivial in comparison.

 

On the whole I think the core problem is I described, simply resources going places other than K1 processing. I'm sure like most, I really would like to know the "why" the handful of people on any given day in the Jan-Mar filers that still don't have their their NOA2s. Is it just random placement of a file in a forgotten bin? Age of applicants? Affiliations? Income? Everything is laid at the feet of the background check processing.

We would all like to know what they do in that pyramid, but it's unlikely we will ever find out.

[twoDs 590]

19 minutes ago, TriloByte said:

We would all like to know what they do in that pyramid, but it's unlikely we will ever find out.

HUSKERKIEV's interview helps, but that was 10 years ago and his experience was nearly 15 years ago. Maybe someday we'll get a new adjudicator interview.

 

The USCIS adjudicator manual is largely online -- see https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1.html and also https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-1067/0-0-0-1166.html#0-0-0-276

 

I wonder what a FOIA request (after the visa is approved, of course) would generate.

 

My main curiousity is simply if the file sites on a shelf or if they open them, find/see something that makes them go "oh #######" and move on, or what, if there's really some gigantic delay in background checks (the IBIS thing in the manual strongly suggests they're real time checks, meaning BG checks shouldn't actually delay a case unless it's a hit). The gigantic gaps in processing for particular dates without any RFEs being involved indicates something is different from HUSKERKIEV's interview many years ago, unless they simply are seeing 15-25% of all cases generating a BG check hit needing resolution.

[TriloByte 1,818]

38 minutes ago, twoDs said:

HUSKERKIEV's interview helps, but that was 10 years ago and his experience was nearly 15 years ago. Maybe someday we'll get a new adjudicator interview.

 

The USCIS adjudicator manual is largely online -- see https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1.html and also https://www.uscis.gov/ilink/docView/AFM/HTML/AFM/0-0-0-1/0-0-0-1067/0-0-0-1166.html#0-0-0-276

 

I wonder what a FOIA request (after the visa is approved, of course) would generate.

 

My main curiousity is simply if the file sites on a shelf or if they open them, find/see something that makes them go "oh #######" and move on, or what, if there's really some gigantic delay in background checks (the IBIS thing in the manual strongly suggests they're real time checks, meaning BG checks shouldn't actually delay a case unless it's a hit). The gigantic gaps in processing for particular dates without any RFEs being involved indicates something is different from HUSKERKIEV's interview many years ago, unless they simply are seeing 15-25% of all cases generating a BG check hit needing resolution.

The fallacy that Morley in his life of Gladstone asserts to be the greatest affliction of politicians; it is indeed a common plague of humanity. It is:

The fallacy of attributing to one cause what is due to many causes.

 

Alfred Korzybski, Science and Sanity: An Introduction to Non-Aristotelian Systems and General Semantics

[twoDs 590]

3 minutes ago, TriloByte said:

The fallacy that Morley in his life of Gladstone asserts to be the greatest affliction of politicians; it is indeed a common plague of humanity. It is:

The fallacy of attributing to one cause what is due to many causes.

 

Alfred Korzybski, Science and Sanity: An Introduction to Non-Aristotelian Systems and General Semantics

 

I have Korzybski's book sitting on a shelf not 30 feet from me. You're first person to ever mention him in a discussion in my entire life.

 

If it weren't for my (well founded) suspicion I may have triggered IBIS hits, I'd agree. This is a problem of many dimensions.

 

[AfricanQ 241]

11 hours ago, Nhona Scott said:

Hi girl, thanks for the response! May I know your case number so i could check my case tracker look up cases. If you dont mind, I sent you a private message. Thank you so much!

Did u see anything for March 15 received date. March 22 notice date???

[TriloByte 1,818]

16 minutes ago, twoDs said:

 

I have Korzybski's book sitting on a shelf not 30 feet from me. You're first person to ever mention him in a discussion in my entire life.

 

If it weren't for my (well founded) suspicion I may have triggered IBIS hits, I'd agree. This is a problem of many dimensions.

 

Not many people have heard about General Semantics these days. If they had, we probably wouldn't be having these forum discussions. What's sad is these type of systems have been around for 100 years at least.

 

I read science and sanity and several books based on the system and similar systems years ago and put the ideas into practice in my life.

 

I think you're the first I've come across too.

 

 

[dkmfan85 832]

Found this information about the checks that USCIS does. It looks like it's the same system that CBP does when people enter the country and scan their passports. Thus, background checks shouldn't really be the factor that is putting so many cases out of order and resulting in quite a wide variety of approval times. http://immigrationroad.com/green-card/uscis-security-check.php