How Facebook will die

[Saddle Bronc 124]

http://news.yahoo.com/facebook-die-180900490.html;_ylt=AtnUvYcEke2c97F.i8Mf8i2wag8F;_ylu=X3oDMTRpdG9scTJoBGNjb2RlA29mZjEwa3B6dG9wMjAwcG9vbARtaXQDTmV3cyBmb3IgeW91BHBrZwM4NjY5NWQ2Zi0yZTU1LTNmNTAtOTQ5YS05MmVlYWQ3ZjViMWIEcG9zAzEEc2VjA25ld3NfZm9yX3lvdQR2ZXIDMjQ0NzFhNTAtZWVkMS0xMWUwLWI2Y2YtMDJiYTNhNTcyZDA2;_ylg=X3oDMTJ0YjlucjZ2BGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDYWNlNTgxZTEtYTcyYS0zZTNmLTkxYzQtYTViNTc2ZmRlYzUwBHBzdGNhdAN3b3JsZHxhc2lhBHB0A3N0b3J5cGFnZQ--;_ylv=3

How Facebook Will Die

Yahoo! contributor network 2011/10/03

COMMENTARY | The world's most popular social network has brought more people together online than any other, as well as helped them waste millions of hours by clicking on cows. Most of its users would probably consider it a good thing overall.

But as we all know, all good things come to an end. Here are three ways Facebook might meet its untimely demise.

A big-time competitor

It's looking increasingly unlikely since Facebook's spread to the point where for most people, you simply aren't allowed to stop using Facebook. It happened to MySpace and LiveJournal, though. So it's entirely possible that whatever the next big thing is, it gets people to flock to it in droves and stop using their Facebook accounts.

In this scenario, Facebook goes out not with a bang but a whimper. It gets bought out by Microsoft, maybe, then sold to Time Warner five years later for a fraction of its IPO. Ten years later, everyone's like "Can you believe that we used to be stuck on that thing?" as they update their Dreamwidth journals. With even Google+ failing to catch on, though, this is beginning to look like a pipe dream.

The federated social web

In other words, Diaspora. It's called "federated" because, unlike Facebook, it doesn't have a single point of failure or control; anyone can set up a Diaspora "pod" and befriend or share stuff with anyone else. There's no need to give your personal info to any big company and there's nobody censoring your writing or spying on your Web surfing to show you ads. (Well, at least Facebook isn't.)

Moreover, the rest of the web starts to play nice together. Instead of everything using Facebook Connect, they start to use systems like OpenID, where any website can recognize you as the same Jane Doe with an account on another website. Plus, you don't have to use your birth name online anymore, and make yourself vulnerable to stalkers. In this scenario, Facebook either fades out slowly or joins the crowd.

Federal antitrust action

From a certain standpoint, this is a scary prospect. People start companies like Facebook to make money. Will they keep doing it if the government could just swoop in and take it from them?

From another standpoint, though, this is history repeating itself. Some governments don't do well at keeping up with the times, and not too long ago the laws in America allowed an enormous monopoly to basically own every telephone. It was only thanks to antitrust action that phone companies started to compete with each other, and they still tend to abuse their customers.

The most likely end?

Because of Facebook's strong network effects, Facebook accounts have already become like cars for many people: Everyone assumes that you have one, and there are places you can't go and things you can't do if you don't. The people who don't have them are increasingly becoming disenfranchised, just as if a Facebook account were required to travel on certain roads. That's a lot of power to give to a privately owned, money-seeking company, that has no accountability to the people who use it.

The question, then, isn't "Would it be right for the government to break up or regulate Facebook?" It's more like "Why hasn't it already?"

Jared Spurbeck is an open-source software enthusiast, who uses an Android phone and an Ubuntu laptop PC. He has been writing about technology and electronics since 2008.

[rsn 135]

He uses Ubuntu on a laptop? Poor guy.

I do agree that facebook has become like cars. I personally don't have an account (anymore) and notice offers occasionally that require I have such an account. Still, facebook isn't going anywhere any time soon. I'm not sure Google+ is a good enough alternative.

Edited October 5, 2011 by rsn

[^_^ 5,021]

The most likely end?

Because of Facebook's strong network effects, Facebook accounts have already become like cars for many people: Everyone assumes that you have one, and there are places you can't go and things you can't do if you don't. The people who don't have them are increasingly becoming disenfranchised, just as if a Facebook account were required to travel on certain roads. That's a lot of power to give to a privately owned, money-seeking company, that has no accountability to the people who use it.

The question, then, isn't "Would it be right for the government to break up or regulate Facebook?" It's more like "Why hasn't it already?"

That is the most likely end? Really?

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

I do not have a facebook account and never did. I think when more people figure it out, they will drop it also.

If anyone can remember there was a time that AOL (remember them?) Charged money BY THE MINUTE to access the internet through them. They were the unquestioned world leader of internet access, email, chat rooms...whatever was available at that time. Bye bye.

Lest anyone forget that 100 years ago the most powerful and influential businesses in the world were the RAILROADS.

Facebook will die because all living things do. In this age of computers/internet things come and go faster than in the past. Railroads had plenty of time to recognize that airlines were the way of the future and they did not react. We SHOULD have Santa Fe airlines

Now, new methods are being developed so fast that no one company can remain on top of it. The replacement for Facebook is out there. It will be better, faster, cheaper. It will happen so fast Facebook will not even figure it out before it is over

In the early 90's there were no video stores, in the late 80's they charged $200 or more to be a "member" so you could rent videotapes. In the 90's they were open for all and the rental rates went down...now they are going out of business. Cable and Satellite TV will go away also. Cable at least has a good product for internet and telephone, for now anyway.

[MyLittlePony 340]

How long is Facebook out 3to5 years?

[skiptex 225]

techno stuff moves all the time.. i got on facebook in 2006.. even then it was only a couple of years old.. AT MOST..

something will come along and kill it someday.. the young kids.. will not want to be on the same social media as their parents and grand parents.. it just would not be cool!

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

techno stuff moves all the time.. i got on facebook in 2006.. even then it was only a couple of years old.. AT MOST..

something will come along and kill it someday.. the young kids.. will not want to be on the same social media as their parents and grand parents.. it just would not be cool!

That explains snowboards.

[Captain Oates 911]

Facebook will die when your wife finds out that you have a page, and goes on there, and your privacy settings are sloppy, and she reads all the stuff from your ex girlfriends

You and Facebook will die seconds apart

[TBoneTX 45,550]

Facebook will die when your wife finds out that you have a page, and goes on there, and your privacy settings are sloppy, and she reads all the stuff from your ex girlfriends

Mrs. T-B. doesn't always trust what I'm writing on VisaJourney, no man. I assuage her feelings by assuring her that I'm merely communicating with my harem of six blondes, si man. She already knows about them.

There's only one blonde in Mrs. T-B.'s moderately small hometown, and she's a fake blonde. This is why Ecuador will always remain a third-world country, sigh man.

[Captain Oates 911]

Mrs. T-B. doesn't always trust what I'm writing on VisaJourney, no man. I assuage her feelings by assuring her that I'm merely communicating with my harem of six blondes, si man. She already knows about them.

There's only one blonde in Mrs. T-B.'s moderately small hometown, and she's a fake blonde. This is why Ecuador will always remain a third-world country, sigh man.

I write some awful things about my wife when I am online

I reckon she will never find any of it although she knows I use VJ and I keep it mild on there

Its a great release to be able to say that stuff

When I am at home I have to listen to me being called a snotty condescending Brit and Amanda Knox is innocent etc - so its nice to get on line and redress the balance

Luckily all my ex girlfriends are fat and boring now - so I am not tempted anyway. I leave all that stuff to the Politicians and young men who don't know that the Colonel's lady and Judy O'Brady are sisters under the skin.

However, there is that Latina lady who looks like Susannah Hoffs - on the express checkout at the supermarket ...hummm

Edited October 5, 2011 by Austin Devon

[Joshua+Oksana 0]

I do not have a facebook account and never did. I think when more people figure it out, they will drop it also.

If anyone can remember there was a time that AOL (remember them?) Charged money BY THE MINUTE to access the internet through them. They were the unquestioned world leader of internet access, email, chat rooms...whatever was available at that time. Bye bye.

Lest anyone forget that 100 years ago the most powerful and influential businesses in the world were the RAILROADS.

Facebook will die because all living things do. In this age of computers/internet things come and go faster than in the past. Railroads had plenty of time to recognize that airlines were the way of the future and they did not react. We SHOULD have Santa Fe airlines

Now, new methods are being developed so fast that no one company can remain on top of it. The replacement for Facebook is out there. It will be better, faster, cheaper. It will happen so fast Facebook will not even figure it out before it is over

In the early 90's there were no video stores, in the late 80's they charged $200 or more to be a "member" so you could rent videotapes. In the 90's they were open for all and the rental rates went down...now they are going out of business. Cable and Satellite TV will go away also. Cable at least has a good product for internet and telephone, for now anyway.

Actually the railroad started in the 1830s. 100 years ago it was the automotive industry. Ford.

[Captain Oates 911]

Actually the railroad started in the 1830s. 100 years ago it was the automotive industry. Ford.

Yes we the Northern English gave the world railways. Much nicer word than railroad.

But I agree that everything changes and I am semi serious when I say Facebook can ruin your life. A lot of personal stuff gets out that people don't realize. When you are 16 it is serious enough that your intimate secrets can be used against you. When you are older it could be far worse

I needed an account to keep it touch with my rifle club who decided to communicate via Facebook. So I created 2 accounts and one is to check on the first account and see exactly what people can see

I log onto my 16 year old granddaughter's account sometimes and she would be horrified if she knew I could see all that stuff. I don't tell her. I don't tell anyone - not even her mother.

Facebook is dynamite and your real friends would email/txt/call/visit you if you didn't have Facebook. If they don't then they aren't friends anyway so no loss

[meandmybeloved 15]

I have a facebook account, but lately I have found it dull and boring. I've had my account for maybe 3 years now,, but lately it just seems to be going down hill quickly. I remember 6 months ago or so that would be the first thing most people( including myself) would do , before anything else, log on to facebook and check up on everyone's status.

Have been considering deleting account all together.

[Ban Hammer 13,408]

I have a facebook account, but lately I have found it dull and boring. I've had my account for maybe 3 years now,, but lately it just seems to be going down hill quickly. I remember 6 months ago or so that would be the first thing most people( including myself) would do , before anything else, log on to facebook and check up on everyone's status.

Have been considering deleting account all together.

you need to play mafia wars or castle age

[MyLittlePony 340]

Pirates was still the best all time FaceBook ever.