How is VisaJourney calculating I-751 approval estimates?

[M&Y_2019 20]

We currently have pending ROC with LIN (Nebraska Service Center). The USCIS processing time for this service center shows 80% of cases approved with 18 months. This is the quickest of all service centers I checked as some are almost double that. There are also many recent data points on this site showing approvals 14-16 months post-receipt date for LIN.

 

That said, I keep receiving emails from VisaJourney stating that our approval estimate is late February 2025, which puts us at 25 months. What is this data based on? Is it drawing on data from all service centers and thus not factoring that LIN is faster than the others?

 

In addition, why does the https://www.visajourney.com/times/ page only show CSC and VSC for I-751, when there are many other service centers?

Edited March 18 by M&Y_2019

[powerpuff 5,907]

It’s based on what data the users of VJ are imputing. It then gives the average for all entries 

[M&Y_2019 20]

10 minutes ago, powerpuff said:

It’s based on what data the users of VJ are imputing. It then gives the average for all entries 

 

Thanks! Just trying to get a sense of whether it was USCIS or VisaJourney that's more accurate. Wouldn't it make more sense for VisaJourney to average based on approval time by service center, instead of by averaging approval time across all? With the wildly varying processing times between different service centers, that would seem more appropriate. 

[OldUser 4,841]

3 hours ago, M&Y_2019 said:

 

Thanks! Just trying to get a sense of whether it was USCIS or VisaJourney that's more accurate. Wouldn't it make more sense for VisaJourney to average based on approval time by service center, instead of by averaging approval time across all? With the wildly varying processing times between different service centers, that would seem more appropriate. 

Neither is accurate. Past processing times cannot guarantee future processing times. It's like predicting stock prices.

[M&Y_2019 20]

10 hours ago, OldUser said:

Neither is accurate. Past processing times cannot guarantee future processing times. It's like predicting stock prices.

 

Not expecting either to be very accurate. Although I will say, the VisaJourney prediction turned out to be quite accurate for both our K1 and AOS. I believe it was approved the same week. 

 

That said, @powerpuff  I'm still confused why VJ is showing only two service centers on this page https://www.visajourney.com/times/ Those two service centers also have different dates next to them as well, so it seems there is some filtering being done based on service center, contrary to what was stated. I-751 is processed by five different service centers.

Edited March 18 by M&Y_2019

[powerpuff 5,907]

13 hours ago, M&Y_2019 said:

 

Thanks! Just trying to get a sense of whether it was USCIS or VisaJourney that's more accurate. Wouldn't it make more sense for VisaJourney to average based on approval time by service center, instead of by averaging approval time across all? With the wildly varying processing times between different service centers, that would seem more appropriate. 

I don’t rely on those two service center estimates. What has helped me is that I go to immigration timelines for ROC and filter out the results by service centers and it shows me latest timelines with approvals for my service center and it gives me an idea of how long members waited. I largely disregard the email about the estimated approval I get every week but it’s not entirely impossible that it might take that long (it’s showing January 2026 as of now). I’ve known people who have waited close to 4 years so I hope for the best and prepare for the worst. 

 

 

[OldUser 4,841]

7 minutes ago, M&Y_2019 said:

 

Not expecting either to be very accurate. Although I will say, the VisaJourney prediction turned out to be quite accurate for both our K1 and AOS almost. I believe it was approved the same week. 

Awesome that it worked. Each case is unique. My friend, living in the same city, with pretty much same immigration history, same country of origin, same occupation, same age submitted I-751 two weeks later than me - got approved 4-5 months earlier than me. Neither of us had interview, nor RFE. Same case pattern - different timeline. 

 

The USCIS processing time changed from 7 to 12, then to over 14 months, then to 17. Took 20 in my case.

 

I could have tried VJ estimates, I doubt they would be anywhere accurate. 

 

Edited March 18 by OldUser

[P055UM 259]

I have been thinking the same thing - I’m also at Nebraska.

 

I guess there are just so many variables for each case, even including whether your case gets ‘bumped’ by filing N-400.

[Frider 7]

I see some other websites estimate it takes 18 months for ROC in California. The latest estimate for my wife’s ROC is September 2024 which would make it 27 months from the date of filing. We will have been married 5 years at that point. You can view our timeline on my profile. Everything previously has been in a timely manner, but this ROC not so. I wonder if this big influx of illegal immigrants since Biden took office has anything to do with that. Seems like that just creates bigger delays for people who are trying to do things legally.

[Frider 7]

PS I was expecting some delays due to COVID, but the pandemic is finished now…

[OldUser 4,841]

1 hour ago, Frider said:

PS I was expecting some delays due to COVID, but the pandemic is finished now…

Pandemic was used as an excuse pretty much.

I-751 is low priority and had the least of USCIS resouces allocated to it.

[jackiegringa 350]

15 hours ago, Frider said:

Everything previously has been in a timely manner

Then you were very lucky, lots of people wait ages for I-130 or I-485 approval. ROC are lowest priority and have been slow for years now.

 

15 hours ago, Frider said:

I wonder if this big influx of illegal immigrants since Biden took office has anything to do with that. Seems like that just creates bigger delays for people who are trying to do things legally.

USCIS only deals with people going through the legal process so even if your assumption was true this makes no sense. Asylum claims (which is a legal immigration path) are not affecting anyone's ROC process.

 

If applying for citizenship is something of interest, N-400 are flying off the shelves these days and can be done in tandem with I-751.

[Crazy Cat 39,286]

22 hours ago, M&Y_2019 said:

I'm still confused why VJ is showing only two service centers

Local office workloads are highly relevant, which I think would really make SC stats inaccurate. In addition, I think I-751s are a low priority as we are seeing, it seems, more and more N-400 interviews scheduled with pending I-751s. If priorities were equal, I-751s would always be processed prior to N-400s, imo.  There are many more N-400 applications than I-751 petitions received by USCIS each quarter according to the stats I have seen.

Example in case as evidence to USCIS priorities: 

1.  We filed a joint I-751 in March of 2019. 

2.  Status went to "Case is ready to be scheduled for an interview" in May 2019. 

(Crickets)

3.  Wife filed N-400 in August 2022.

4.  N-400 interview conducted in December 2022.  2 days prior to the N-400 interview, we were notified that it would be a combo N-400/I-751 interview.

We had received no RFEs for either the I-751 or N-400. 

Edited March 19 by Crazy Cat

[M&Y_2019 20]

41 minutes ago, Crazy Cat said:

Local office workloads are highly relevant, which I think would really make SC stats inaccurate. In addition, I think I-751s are a low priority as we are seeing, it seems, more and more N-400 interviews scheduled with pending I-751s. If priorities were equal, I-751s would always be processed prior to N-400s, imo.  There are many more N-400 applications than I-751 petitions received by USCIS each quarter according to the stats I have seen.

Example in case as evidence to USCIS priorities: 

1.  We filed a joint I-751 in March of 2019. 

2.  Status went to "Case is ready to be scheduled for an interview" in May 2019. 

(Crickets)

3.  Wife filed N-400 in August 2022.

4.  N-400 interview conducted in December 2022.  2 days prior to the N-400 interview, we were notified that it would be a combo N-400/I-751 interview.

We had received no RFEs for either the I-751 or N-400. 

Yeah - the N-400 factor in possibly speeding up ROC cases does make this even harder to predict. I do want to research and understand the reasoning behind the I-751 process at some point. I'm not aware of any other countries having a "conditional" permanent residence prior to the "real" one. For example, in Japan, you apply for PR when eligible and you get it. There's no "intermediary, conditional PR". Temporary permanent residence is almost an oxymoron. It seems like the US Congress and USCIS just imposed this extra administrative burden on themselves for little reason. 

 

Unfortunately, due to Japan's rules on citizenship, my spouse would be automatically deprived of Japanese citizenship upon obtaining US citizenship, making N-400 a complete non-starter. We will just have to wait out ROC with no N-400. 

 

 

Edited March 19 by M&Y_2019

[AnneA 72]

Mine is also in Nebraska and on March 17 2024 the estimate was January 19 2025.

However it was approved on March 20 th.