Number of cases processed hit new high!

[meladee 160]

Here is my theory, and it's a mixed bag: Yes, they are processing quicker, and eventually that will be good. But in the Appropriations Act, which is law, they are required to reduce the median processing rate by 25% this year, which is a slight deviation from the wording in the previous years -- because they used the word median. They are not beholden to the processing times on this page that consider 80% of cases processed; these are the median processing times they care about.

Which is great, that means the median this year should get to ~9 months. But what about the other 50% that come after the median? That is why, in this fiscal year, we have seen them consitent move on to processing the next month at 50%, and the remaining 50% get stretched out. They aren't required by law to adjudicate them as speedily as the median, so they are deprioritised as they try to get the next batch to 50% as quickly as possible. Long term, it will be better for everyone, but short term you're really going to feel it if you're in the first 50% vs second 50%.

[GinoNiña 182]

How to figure out if I’m in the first 50% or second? 

[AndiB 662]

6 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

How to figure out if I’m in the first 50% or second? 

it's random, no one knows. 

[Ok-Mix 117]

5 hours ago, AndiB said:

Going off the spreadsheet, Nov filers may not have hit 80% yet which will put them at 16 months + so maybe it is those last 10%+ 

 

I'm very sorry deprived. Math is beyond me

This makes sense, seeing as how there are active September and October '22 filers on FB and here on VJ who are still waiting... that means they are is 17-18 months, and cases like theirs might be in the average...

[ChiuA 108]

2 minutes ago, Ok-Mix said:

This makes sense, seeing as how there are active September and October '22 filers on FB and here on VJ who are still waiting... that means they are is 17-18 months, and cases like theirs might be in the average...

I think the sad part about that is that everyone who filled maybe in 2021 or end of 2021 is going to have that struggle now sadly. I think people who filled in 2022 will get their approval faster but since 2021 was tough with covid, those cases might be longer due more checking I wonder. I see a lot of people actually on FB saying they couldn't meet or were barely hitting the 2 year last seen in person meeting...that all affects it. I think the 2022 fillers and 2023 are going to get information like the sheets tell us, but for the october nov dec 2021 it might be harder 😕 Sadly... 

[Ok-Mix 117]

1 hour ago, Ok-Mix said:

This makes sense, seeing as how there are active September and October '22 filers on FB and here on VJ who are still waiting... that means they are is 17-18 months, and cases like theirs might be in the average...

I meant '21 not '22, but you figured that out! lol 

[Oregonian97 48]

18 hours ago, meladee said:

Here is my theory, and it's a mixed bag: Yes, they are processing quicker, and eventually that will be good. But in the Appropriations Act, which is law, they are required to reduce the median processing rate by 25% this year, which is a slight deviation from the wording in the previous years -- because they used the word median. They are not beholden to the processing times on this page that consider 80% of cases processed; these are the median processing times they care about.

Which is great, that means the median this year should get to ~9 months. But what about the other 50% that come after the median? That is why, in this fiscal year, we have seen them consitent move on to processing the next month at 50%, and the remaining 50% get stretched out. They aren't required by law to adjudicate them as speedily as the median, so they are deprioritised as they try to get the next batch to 50% as quickly as possible. Long term, it will be better for everyone, but short term you're really going to feel it if you're in the first 50% vs second 50%.

Do you have any links that I could read through the appropriations act where it mentions this 25% reduction? I was able to find the text below (see title IV), but no reference to the 25% decrease. It does mention funds to reduce backlog though. And what number of months was the median processing time when this bill came out and stated there needs to be a 25% reduction? (I assume it was 12 at the time?)

 

https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8257/text

 

[Naterson 129]

On 3/12/2023 at 1:34 PM, meladee said:

I've gone deeper into the rabbit hole and it's not quite as rosy -- in the 2022 report (House Report 117-87) they changed the first point to:

So while we should see reductions, it does feel like 6 months is off the table. Also, because it's based on the median that might be why we're seeing so many get left behind, they only care about that 50% mark. I don't expect much change in this in the short term, the 2023 report basically says to keep doing what they said in 2022.

I believe this is what you're looking for.

[New Romantics 188]

1 hour ago, Naterson said:

I believe this is what you're looking for.

Can anyone find the part they talk about the median in the 2023 report? I can only see it in the 2022 one

[meladee 160]

9 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Can anyone find the part they talk about the median in the 2023 report? I can only see it in the 2022 one

Here's the 2023 report. It just says "Application Processing.--The Committee continues direction provided under this heading in House Report 117-87 related to the timely processing of applications, changes to fee levels, and reporting on processing performance." House Report 117-87 is the 2022 report, which says :
 

Quote

  Application Processing.--USCIS is directed to prioritize the timely processing of citizenship and other applications, with a goal of adjudicating all requests within six months of submission. Further, if USCIS publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking or Final Rule that proposes or adopts any amendment to 8 C.F.R. 103.7(b), (October 1, 2020), that would impact fee levels, USCIS shall include the following information in its associated publications in the Federal Register:
(1) a detailed plan for reducing the aggregate median processing time for all applications at least 25 percent by not later than one year from the date of publication of the notice and each year thereafter until median processing times are fewer than six months; and
(2) a detailed estimate of any discretionary funding requirement for enabling USCIS to limit future fee increases to not more than the rate of inflation.

You can see more of my rambling about this earlier in this thread here and here.

[New Romantics 188]

5 minutes ago, meladee said:

Here's the 2023 report. It just says "Application Processing.--The Committee continues direction provided under this heading in House Report 117-87 related to the timely processing of applications, changes to fee levels, and reporting on processing performance." House Report 117-87 is the 2022 report, which says :
 

You can see more of my rambling about this earlier in this thread here and here.

Thank you! It's interesting because if that's the case then they must have not followed it the first year as we can see here https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/historic-pt

[New Romantics 188]

Also, if I'm interpreting this right, the median this year needs to be 25% lower than 2022 (12.1) which means that at minimum, the median by the end of this fiscal year needs to be ~9.1. This is just how I understood this so feel free to correct me!

Edited March 24, 2023 by New Romantics

[AndiB 662]

2 minutes ago, New Romantics said:

Also, if I'm interpreting this right, the median this year needs to be 25% lower than 2022 (12.1) which means that at minimum, the median by the end of this fiscal year needs to be ~9.1. This is just how I understood this so feel free to correct me!

yeah that's what I read it as too. Seen as they're estimated to hit about 12months by end of fiscal yr, they're not miles off (considering they were projected at start of fiscal to be at 20-24 months by end of fiscal yr )

[New Romantics 188]

2 minutes ago, AndiB said:

yeah that's what I read it as too. Seen as they're estimated to hit about 12months by end of fiscal yr, they're not miles off (considering they were projected at start of fiscal to be at 20-24 months by end of fiscal yr )

Curious to see what the median will be after March is done. That I think will give us lots of info

[AndiB 662]

Just now, New Romantics said:

Curious to see what the median will be after March is done. That I think will give us lots of info

same, seems they updated to incl feb about mid march so still a few weeks to wait 😫