Oregonian97

How are you taking account rejected/denials in your daily "processed" numbers? I generally don't take credit for those because most of them are from cases filed just now and don't count towards your backlog reduction. If you look at Oblak's spreadsheet, your filing month of October already has very similar rejection numbers overall compared with months currently being processed. It won't make your dates much worse, but something to consider.

If we follow other Fridays, we could be in the 1,300’s

Y’all see the median processing time drop in the “historical processing times” page? Went from 14.5 to 14.4 month. Not huge, but it’s a trend in the right direction. It’s for the period ending April 30 edit: I know it’s no surprise for us but nice to see it from USCIS website

With the current processing weekly rates I am seeing, August seems like a possibility now. I think if we have a few more solid weeks of 1200 cases processed per week, August won’t be all that insane to consider

Plus you’d hope that as USCIS staffs up, they staff up NVC in line with increasing adjudicators for visa processing. also off topic question, but does the local embassy of my beneficiary automatically pick an interview date for my beneficiary after NVC hands over the app to them, or do I need to manually schedule one and pick a date?

Not to brag, but I remember making this bold prediction in March about 1200 processed a week 🙏🏽 nice to see we are there

I was doing some analysis on the data to forecast when I could expect an approval and found some nice information that I thought would be worth sharing for positivity. I received NOA1 in early September. If USCIS continues at a rate of 1050/week approved/withdrawn cases per week for the next 4 weeks, as they have been the last few weeks (I exclude denials since most are instantaneous and aren't necessarily backlog removal), even if processing drops to 700/week after that, I am expecting a 70% likelihood of getting approved in September timeframe. Very similar to this if you received NOA1 around the same time as me. We only need a few more good weeks before a large decrease in processing starts to have little impact on overall timing. My guess is processing will start to decelerate from current rates once the backlog is more caught up, but I wouldn't expect that to happen before the fall.

I think it depends. K1 visas are such a small chunk. They probably have 10x the number of USCIS adjudicators for I130, for example. So it’s just a matter of how USCIS decides to allocate their manpower. It may or may not have an impact, we’ll see. My personal thought is little to no impact because USCIS is still hiring and staffing up.

Hey everyone I am also a september filer. I assume we won't be seeing much of an update, but I think we might sometime late summer!

Do we have evidence that USCIS works it's way in order for a given month? I.e when they finish 60% or March, they jump into the April cases, starting with the ones files early April? (which is why we are seeing April 1 case approvals) I know that sounds logical but again nothing about how USCIS processes cases seems to be. Edit: Asking because my NOA1 was early September, so hoping that means I am part of the first batch for that month.

My guess is that USCIS tracks progress on a weekly basis. It seems that a bad day such as Monday, is always made up for the next day. I think USCIS will try to stick to 900 approved per week regardless of how they get there on individual days. But that’s just my guess based on the trends

Looks like numbers just came in for Tuesday. Big bucks!

Monster week at 1238 cases, not even including today and tomorrow 🙌🏽

My guess is that some applicants needs more “investigation” and get left behind. For example, maybe a questionable background check pops up and they need to investigate further. But at that point no RFE would be sent so it looks like the case is just left behind. That’s just my guess

Curious how todays numbers look with Good Friday. Hopefully they Atleast knock out 150. Also I have come to realize that the metric we should really care about is approvals and withdrawals. Most rejections are for cases that have just been submitted, so there’s minimal impact to backlog. As far as approvals and withdrawals, We are way ahead this week.

Y’all see USCIS opened a new service center? Hopefully should speed up processing even more going forward.

Do you have any links that I could read through the appropriations act where it mentions this 25% reduction? I was able to find the text below (see title IV), but no reference to the 25% decrease. It does mention funds to reduce backlog though. And what number of months was the median processing time when this bill came out and stated there needs to be a 25% reduction? (I assume it was 12 at the time?) https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8257/text

Plus we will probably get another 10 cases over the weekend. I am optimistic that we hit 1200/week in the near future. Also general question on the spread sheet tracker- for the estimate on remaining wait time, does it assume that the case that have already been rejected ahead of me are removed from the backlog? Or does it just look at the number of cases received ahead of my date? As I mentioned before, there is a good chunk rejected at the start when cases are submitted. Are these deducted from the backlog immediately?

At the interview really? I guess that's surprising to me. I feel like you'd really have to bomb it.....

Looking to get some clarity, and hopefully good news, on my question below. In the google sheets link to tracking the wait time and backlog, I noticed a tab that shows the app status by filing month. It seems that most rejections happen right off the bat? I.e there's a similar number of rejection on cases currently that were filed in fall 22' compared to cases being processed right now. Does that mean that we all have a very very high approval chance if we have not been rejected already from the start? See how the number of rejected cases for Oct 22' is almost same as August 21' cases, although most cases from Aug 22' are currently pending.

Keep in mind staffing is one factor. Resource allocation is another. The increase in K1 processing over the last month is mainly because USCIS has shifted resources from other visa's where backlog has been reduced and having them focus on I-130 and I-129 cases. Yes hiring increases help, but not the only factor. If USCIS chooses to focus on K1's, the wait time could go shorter. Overall case workload for K1's is a drop in the bucket compared to I130's.

Does anyone know when Uscis updates processing times each month? I am also curious how how close they will actually come to reaching their 6 month cycle time by FY 2023.... that's only 6.5 months away. That means if you file right now you should get approved by Sep 30, 2023. Although it seems very unlikely they will reach their goal, I hope they can at least come close.

Is anyone else's case status showing as unavailable on the website? it's been that way for over 2 weeks for me

Is anyone else's case status "unavailable at this time" ? On the USCIS website.

Any info on the final count for this week? The spreadsheets still show "counting"