Which Processing Time is Correct?

[Kurt and Kristina 72]

First off, if this has been asked 100x, my apologies (but I did look for it )

We are all very aware of the "Check Case Processing Times" on the USCIS website.

Now that the CSC for the I-129f has clicked to 14 months, it is making me wonder....

When I filed back in early February 2022, the site said 10 months (or there shortly after).

Now it shows 14 months.

Which timeframe would be / could be expected, the 10 months when I filed, or the current 14 months?

 

Why I ask is this little gem I found:  https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info

(I just love it when the USCIS does math...) 

Thank you all!

-Kurt

 

How Is the Case Inquiry Date Calculated?

This is how we calculate the case inquiry date:

Case Inquiry Date = [time to complete 93% of adjudicated cases] – [today’s date – receipt date]

Example:

If you checked our processing times webpage on Jan. 1, 2022, for a form you filed on Jan. 1, 2021, and the time to complete 93% of adjudicated cases was 13 months, your case inquiry date would be calculated as:

Case Inquiry Date = [13 months] – [Jan. 1, 2022 – Jan. 1, 2021]

                                = [13 months] – [12 months]

                                 = one month

In this example, we estimate that you would be able to contact us in one month. The tool will provide the exact date for you. If the calculation for the case inquiry date produces a negative number, you will be able to submit a question about your case.

 

[Chancy 6,241]

*** Moved from K1 Process & Procedures to K1 Progress Reports ***

 

1 hour ago, Kurt and Kristina said:

Which timeframe would be / could be expected, the 10 months when I filed, or the current 14 months?

 

Barring any miracles, the current estimate of 14 months would be more likely.

 

[powerpuff 6,723]

You can also scroll down on the check the processing times page and input your receipt date and see when your case will be considered outside normal processing time.

 

But yes, it goes by what is said right now which is 14 months.

Edited October 1, 2022 by powerpuff

[GinoNiña 182]

2 hours ago, Chancy said:

*** Moved from K1 Process & Procedures to K1 Progress Reports ***

 

 

Barring any miracles, the current estimate of 14 months would be more likely.

 

 when I got my noa1 5  months ago,  it says 13 months. now its says 14. I dont  get it. I should not loose my spot.  

[fenerbahce1907 496]

7 hours ago, GinoNiña said:

 when I got my noa1 5  months ago,  it says 13 months. now its says 14. I dont  get it. I should not loose my spot.  

it doesn't work that way my friend. What you see on website. It's current waiting time. So you will wait around 9 months more or less . if they change it again ! sorry 

[Nuba 57]

The USCIS web page says

 

"This processing time is based on how long it took us to complete 80% of adjudicated cases over the past six months. Each case is unique, and some cases may take longer than others."

 

In other words this is a backward looking measure of actual processing time over the last 6 months.  People have constructed any number of conspiracy theories but the simplest explanation is that this number it is just what the data show.  It does not in itself imply anything about the processing time for later petitions.

 

Today is the beginning of fiscal year 2023 for USCIS and some of us are hoping that starting this month they will redeploy resources necessary to meet their aggressive targets in backlog for fiance and spousal visas by end of FY 23.  If not, the backlog will only grow as new cases continue to exceed the number of cases processed.

[GinoNiña 182]

So this estimates is only from them(uscis) correct? Nvc and at local consulate are excluded from their processing time? 

[powerpuff 6,723]

Just now, GinoNiña said:

So this estimates is only from them(uscis) correct? Nvc and at local consulate are excluded from their processing time? 

Correct 

[Kurt and Kristina 72]

I agree, NVC and the rest of it, in my mind, are more realistic timelines for government. What is frustrating as a petitioner (and a citizen), is our government not prioritizing family petitions over others. Not saying amnesty and employment aren’t important, but these wait times are painful especially when the USCIS is just increasing the backlog.  Thank you all for your comments and answers. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

23 hours ago, Kurt and Kristina said:

Why I ask is this little gem I found:  https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/more-info

(I just love it when the USCIS does math...) 

That case inquiry date is actually the best possible estimate for one's case. That date has been adjusting regularly as of late, sometimes twice a week (and growing). That change is showing the trend.

 

So, if:

February 2022 = 10 months

And:

October 2022 = 14 months

Then:

Delay grew by 4 months over the course of 8, 50% delay growth

Then:

We take your original 10 months and multiply them by the trend (1.5)

Then:

It's February 2022 + 15 months which now places your NOA2 in May 2023.

 

Assuming nothing else changes.

 

Last three quarters had been the worst for USCIS even when compared with Covid times. They can fix it or set a new "record". 

[GinoNiña 182]

1 hour ago, Lynxyonok said:

That case inquiry date is actually the best possible estimate for one's case. That date has been adjusting regularly as of late, sometimes twice a week (and growing). That change is showing the trend.

 

So, if:

February 2022 = 10 months

And:

October 2022 = 14 months

Then:

Delay grew by 4 months over the course of 8, 50% delay growth

Then:

We take your original 10 months and multiply them by the trend (1.5)

Then:

It's February 2022 + 15 months which now places your NOA2 in May 2023.

 

Assuming nothing else changes.

 

Last three quarters had been the worst for USCIS even when compared with Covid times. They can fix it or set a new "record". 

Im  trying to  figure out  what causing delays at the uscis. the whole year in 2021 and  most of 2020, the world is on lockdown. this means no one can meet in person, a must have requirement for fiancee visa applicant  to have. there are some applicants but  its not  the same  number as before lockdown started.

Philippines for example, removed the quarantine on mid  February of this year. 

 

for almost two years uscis has a very light load of application came in..... 

 

[Lil bear 4,247]

43 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

Im  trying to  figure out  what causing delays at the uscis. the whole year in 2021 and  most of 2020, the world is on lockdown. this means no one can meet in person, a must have requirement for fiancee visa applicant  to have. there are some applicants but  its not  the same  number as before lockdown started.

Philippines for example, removed the quarantine on mid  February of this year. 

 

for almost two years uscis has a very light load of application came in..... 

 

Lots of visa categories other than K1 which do not require the K1 face to face. People off sick , adjustment to remote work rather than in office would have required time to make .. the incoming caseload overall was not as light as  you suggest. 

[Lynxyonok 316]

Something else to consider; there were quite a few February / March / April I-129Fs approved through a successful expedite. Roughly one in 50-75 applications submitted during those months got through. I'd say the war in Ukraine set everyone else back about a week.