I-129f June 2017 filers (merged)

[John & Rose 7,239]

1 minute ago, DandY said:

The reason my algorithm didn't push them out that far is that they are June 30 and June has less filers than month before, so as we go through June, mine is predicting shorter timelines for late June than early June. But we shall see.

I really believe the holidays are going to have an impact. From late November through mid January things are going to be very slow. That is why I see June getting hit worse than other months. It is our November to December anticipated NOA2s that will have to deal with employees end of year time off and a general lack of productivity due to the time of year. 

[daleguthery 305]

2 hours ago, MarksMate said:

134 days now.

 

Gosh I hope this doesn't go past March!! I am planning on resigning in February, I hope that's a good plan to have.

Tomorrow is day 145 for us. I'm hoping to be able to fly out to pick her up mid to late January, but it may end up being February... My congressman here in Illinois sent out a expedite request on my behalf today, so I'll see if that makes a difference.

[Lotts 1,433]

Ohhhhhh boy! 😭

Welp. Thanks, guys. Sometimes you do need that realistic check in just to stop getting carried away, have your heart set on things, and too hopeful. 

 

I have my fingers crossed for all of you here. 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

I am not sure if there will be another scan tonight, but up to this point there has been 95 approved, 1 action (?) and 18 more RFE's. Not sure how to count that 1, but I have an ugly suspicion that that is a rejection, so I will treat it as such, which brings our totals to:

 

April   1000+

May    3502

June   3697

 

I am not sure if you guys have noticed, but there is actually one RFE for an application dated May 30th ! That is the last day in May that they registered the cases, day before was a Monday holiday the 29th, and 31st there was no cases registered. Soooooo ..... draw your own conclusions, but I can only stick to my guns, as I said 160 days, and some June cases will be touched next week, weather RFE's or not, but they will. Hang tough guys, we are on our way !

[Allthephils 536]

9 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

I am not sure if there will be another scan tonight, but up to this point there has been 95 approved, 1 action (?) and 18 more RFE's. Not sure how to count that 1, but I have an ugly suspicion that that is a rejection, so I will treat it as such, which brings our totals to:

 

April   1000+

May    3502

June   3697

 

I am not sure if you guys have noticed, but there is actually one RFE for an application dated May 30th ! That is the last day in May that they registered the cases, day before was a Monday holiday the 29th, and 31st there was no cases registered. Soooooo ..... draw your own conclusions, but I can only stick to my guns, as I said 160 days, and some June cases will be touched next week, weather RFE's or not, but they will. Hang tough guys, we are on our way !

I’m all for being optimistic! But unfortunately the May 30th case was an expedite. 😞

[Birveonrty 110]

140 days

[The Squirrel 1,318]

Just now, Allthephils said:

I’m all for being optimistic! But unfortunately the May 30th case was an expedite. 😞

 

Mind me asking how in the world do you know that?

 

Please answer one more since you are here . Four cases are approved in May now that are not entered yet on the website. Oldest is 12 days old, than 9, than 7 and 5. Those are forum members, so there is no question about it. Question is - how far along are they since they are obviously 12 days back in updating?  

 

[Allthephils 536]

3 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

 

Mind me asking how in the world do you know that?

 

Please answer one more since you are here . Four cases are approved in May now that are not entered yet on the website. Oldest is 12 days old, than 9, than 7 and 5. Those are forum members, so there is no question about it. Question is - how far along are they since they are obviously 12 days back in updating?  

 

The WAC number from the Shoegum’s scan. Copied and pasted it into the USCIS app. You can view the case history there. 

 

As for for the second question, I have no idea! It’s obvious the data entry folks are behind. My hope is that they are wayyyy behind and June cases will be touched soon :). 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

5 minutes ago, Allthephils said:

The WAC number from the Shoegum’s scan. Copied and pasted it into the USCIS app. You can view the case history there. 

 

As for for the second question, I have no idea! It’s obvious the data entry folks are behind. My hope is that they are wayyyy behind and June cases will be touched soon :). 

 

Which app is that? Before I wrote my comment I checked @Shoegum scan from Friday, and it showed "case received", and I went on my app by Spinach it says "RFE was mailed", and I went on their official website, it also says "RFE was mailed". Can you please take a screenshot of your app? It is not that I don't believe you, but in order for it to expedited, it would have to have been transferred, and the raw scan would have it marked as "another office has jurisdiction". Can you please clarify. 

 

[John & Rose 7,239]

2 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

 

Which app is that? Before I wrote my comment I checked @Shoegum scan from Friday, and it showed "case received", and I went on my app by Spinach it says "RFE was mailed", and I went on their official website, it also says "RFE was mailed". Can you please take a screenshot of your app? It is not that I don't believe you, but in order for it to expedited, it would have to have been transferred, and the raw scan would have it marked as "another office has jurisdiction". Can you please clarify. 

 

Expedites transferred?  That is the first time I’ve heard that. It wasn’t reported that way by previous expedites. It’s possible. I don’t think it was asked. That is interesting though. 

 

I only have 20 days to approval according to our squirrely friend. I hope he is right. I still believe I have 40 but we will know soon enough. The timeline here even has me a week past The Squirrels date and the timeline here has been running 14 days to quick for most others. 

 

Either way, I love the fact that we can disagree and discuss and at the end of the day, that first round is still on me. This place is great. 

[The Squirrel 1,318]

17 minutes ago, John & Rose said:

Expedites transferred?  That is the first time I’ve heard that. It wasn’t reported that way by previous expedites. It’s possible. I don’t think it was asked. That is interesting though. 

Yes, I got that info here, read it couple of times. It goes to another field office that takes care of expedites. I would love to see the screenshot, than I would really stop trying to make any sense of this, because even now, all of this makes very very little sense. 

 

One more important thing that I caught, and this goes along with application denials. I took for example May 3rd. Here is the history

 

90 petitions registered on May 3rd

 1 rejected right away - old form

---------------------------------------

89 total cases received to begin with

-------------------------------------

21 cases left "received" as of Friday 20th (3 days ago) 

 

Than today they worked on 5 cases, and all 5 received an RFE ! That leads me to believe that they leave complex cases for last, and some get RFE's, and some just might stay forever "received" (we guess/know what that means). So USCIS has brought the number of cases for that very day down to below threshold of the historical average of cases declined. Also, this points out that they are doing days until they are done, and somewhat shortening the calendar gap in "cases worked on"

 

 

[DandY 134]

1 hour ago, The Squirrel said:

Soooooo ..... draw your own conclusions, but I can only stick to my guns, as I said 160 days, and some June cases will be touched next week, weather RFE's or not, but they will. Hang tough guys, we are on our way !

I will. Most of the approvals posted were at 167 and 168 days. So the average for Early may is looking like it is going to be somewhere around 162-164 as I predicted. Late May will be around 168 average and early June will be 174 average. That puts many of us into Thanksgiving and pushes to 176-178 (Maybe more).

 

So, the conclusion I draw is that my algorithm is largely validated and early June WILL NOT average 160 days.

[DandY 134]

16 minutes ago, The Squirrel said:

Than today they worked on 5 cases, and all 5 received an RFE ! That leads me to believe that they leave complex cases for last, and some get RFE's, and some just might stay forever "received" (we guess/know what that means).

From historical data, I do not believe this is true. If your hypothesis were correct, then there would be a higher probability that the petitions processed in say the last 25% of a day would have more RFEs. Historically, I cannot find that pattern.

Edited October 24, 2017 by DandY

[John & Rose 7,239]

15 minutes ago, DandY said:

From historical data, I do not believe this is true. If your hypothesis were correct, then there would be a higher probability that the petitions processed in say the last 25% of a day would have more RFEs. Historically, I cannot find that pattern.

I believe they will use RFE’s to stop the clock when they get to the 6 month area. That is there “official” time for reviews. If you get an RFE, that time constraint goes away. We need to see what the RFEs are about. I’m guessing they will be so minor that they wouldn’t issue RFEs if they weren’t up against their own time estimates. 

[Naes 12,205]

2 hours ago, The Squirrel said:

I am not sure if there will be another scan tonight, but up to this point there has been 95 approved, 1 action (?) and 18 more RFE's. Not sure how to count that 1, but I have an ugly suspicion that that is a rejection, so I will treat it as such, which brings our totals to:

 

April   1000+

May    3502

June   3697

 

I am not sure if you guys have noticed, but there is actually one RFE for an application dated May 30th ! That is the last day in May that they registered the cases, day before was a Monday holiday the 29th, and 31st there was no cases registered. Soooooo ..... draw your own conclusions, but I can only stick to my guns, as I said 160 days, and some June cases will be touched next week, weather RFE's or not, but they will. Hang tough guys, we are on our way !

There are registered cases on 31st.

It wasn't in the shoegums list because it was mixed with the June 1sts. 

I'm trying to clear the sheets and I'll publish that with the others. Hopefully by tomorrow