I-129F March 2017 Filers

[AnJ Co 1,676]

6 minutes ago, dkmfan85 said:

I'm so antsy to check the mail today, but I' m stuck at work. With KozmicBlues' NOA2 and the RFE just 6 cases after mine all dated the same day, I'm hoping we made the cut!!!

LOL  I'm hoping you did too!!!

[BahamaIslander242 244]

11 minutes ago, dkmfan85 said:

I'm so antsy to check the mail today, but I' m stuck at work. With KozmicBlues' NOA2 and the RFE just 6 cases after mine all dated the same day, I'm hoping we made the cut!!!

I know that feeling, my dates are the same too! I thought I was on edge before but now it's way worse! lol

 

Sadly no golden ticket came in the mail today....so back to nervous anticipation for another day. 

 

Good luck to you!

Edited July 28, 2017 by BahamaIslander242

[Estibaliz 3,037]

1 hour ago, twoDs said:

 

Currently there are 180 cases on VJ without NOA2. Below is the status by NOA1, databse updated last night at 6pm, so presumably as those

new NOA2s hit like the handful this morning this will change a lot:

 

43 out of those 180 cases without NOA2 are from inactive accounts, so impossible to know if they already got their NOA2 or not.

15 out of those 180 cases already got a RFE and are waiting for NOA2, so at least they are not untouched cases.

 

Which brings down the count to 122 untouched active cases. That sounds just a bit better

[Emmsan 51]

34 minutes ago, Patricia & Ola said:

Has delayed our wedding, but at least we have a date! Wanna become Facebook friends? Patricia Vandel......May be way easier to chat!

Sure! I've added you  

[AnJ Co 1,676]

3 minutes ago, Estibaliz said:

43 out of those 180 cases without NOA2 are from inactive accounts, so impossible to know if they already got their NOA2 or not.

15 out of those 180 cases already got a RFE and are waiting for NOA2, so at least they are not untouched cases.

 

Which brings down the count to 122 untouched active cases. That sounds just a bit better

Rough math, but around 365 in database, and 122 to go - that glass is 2/3 full!

[od17 76]

1 hour ago, twoDs said:

Day 137 also, didn't even get an informed mail email this morning and we're an hour past when it usually arrives.

 

Called my senator (the same one that delivered good news to KosmicBlues) yesterday morning, no one answered so I left a message and still no call back.

We'll see if they call today, otherwise I guess we'll be stuck trying again on Monday.

 

Some of the new NOA2s are hitting the VJ database, yesterday at this time there were 25 entries between 7-15 and 7-31 and now there's 29. Over on the

April thread someone was saying there were ~250 status updates near the 3/28 dates, so we could see quite a wave. I suspect that AnJ is correct that

they're gaming the average, in which case USCIS will focus on the last days of the month since those will have the lowest processing times and still be

counted towards the Q1 average.

 

All the 129F applications on the case tracker for 3/13 appear to start at WAC1790246073 and go through WAC1790246115, and there have been no

recent updates to the status on those, and indeed the only updates at all are a few scattered responses to RFEs sent a month ago, though there's one

case that got labeled approved back then as well. There are five outstanding cases on VJ for that date, ours, pajobra's, and slwomack1 are all actively

posting here, one looks like an abandoned account and the other doesn't have a published timeline.

 

Currently there are 180 cases on VJ without NOA2. Below is the status by NOA1, databse updated last night at 6pm, so presumably as those

new NOA2s hit like the handful this morning this will change a lot:

 

2017/02/08 1 1 100% 
2017/03/01 21 15 71.4% 
2017/03/02 7 5 71.4% 
2017/03/03 15 9 60% 
2017/03/04 2 1 50% 
2017/03/05 1 0 0% 
2017/03/06 32 24 75% 
2017/03/07 18 15 83.3% 
2017/03/08 5 4 80% 
2017/03/09 19 9 47.4% 
2017/03/10 9 2 22.2% 
2017/03/11 10 7 70% 
2017/03/13 20 15 75% 
2017/03/14 12 9 75% 
2017/03/15 18 12 66.7% 
2017/03/16 24 11 45.8% 
2017/03/17 9 3 33.3% 
2017/03/20 28 12 42.9% 
2017/03/21 20 6 30% 
2017/03/22 13 6 46.2% 
2017/03/23 10 5 50% 
2017/03/24 13 5 38.5% 
2017/03/25 1 1 100% 
2017/03/26 2 1 50% 
2017/03/27 21 8 38.1% 
2017/03/28 19 5 26.3% 
2017/03/29 17 5 29.4% 
2017/03/30 5 1 20% 
2017/03/31 16 2 12.5% 

 

I swear you're some sort of math genius!! Thank you so much for doing this!!!

My brain would've broken if I attempted that LOL

[twoDs 590]

6 minutes ago, Estibaliz said:

43 out of those 180 cases without NOA2 are from inactive accounts, so impossible to know if they already got their NOA2 or not.

15 out of those 180 cases already got a RFE and are waiting for NOA2, so at least they are not untouched cases.

 

Which brings down the count to 122 untouched active cases. That sounds just a bit better

 

Personally I prefer to be one of 180 rather than one out of 122. Someone is going to be one out of one with 360+ approvals and that's going to suck. ... but that's just me.

 

I've cruised back in the 2016 filer threads, there are some sad, sad stories there from people without NOA2.

 

The most cringeworthy was someone that had a RFE pending for like 6-9 months because their lawyer forgot to tell them about it. Ouch.

[Estibaliz 3,037]

5 minutes ago, AnJ Co said:

Rough math, but around 365 in database, and 122 to go - that glass is 2/3 full!

My rough math goes like 190 approved + 15 RFE´s (205) + 122 to go = 327 total

122/327= 37,3% to go

 

But... they are working today and the tracker only worked yesterday, so there could be more NOA2's on its way.

2/3 full sounds good to me

[Estibaliz 3,037]

5 minutes ago, twoDs said:

 

Personally I prefer to be one of 180 rather than one out of 122. Someone is going to be one out of one with 360+ approvals and that's going to suck. ... but that's just me.

 

I've cruised back in the 2016 filer threads, there are some sad, sad stories there from people without NOA2.

 

The most cringeworthy was someone that had a RFE pending for like 6-9 months because their lawyer forgot to tell them about it. Ouch.

Yep, I understand your point of view. But in a more positive note, less cases means anyone's chances to be next are higher

[twoDs 590]

3 minutes ago, od17 said:

I swear you're some sort of math genius!! Thank you so much for doing this!!!

My brain would've broken if I attempted that LOL

At first I was using a spreadsheet and doing it manually, but after the second time I brought out the heavy guns and used a short program written in the "R" statistical programming language to generate everything. It's trivial from there. By far the biggest issue is manually capturing the data off the web page, I wish VJ would let you download the search results en masse as a .csv but understand why they don't.

 

Once I have the data copied it literally takes about a tenth of second to get the numbers and a few more seconds to copy/paste to the message editor.

[AnJ Co 1,676]

3 minutes ago, Estibaliz said:

My rough math goes like 190 approved + 15 RFE´s (205) + 122 to go = 327 total

122/327= 37,3% to go

 

But... they are working today and the tracker only worked yesterday, so there could be more NOA2's on its way.

2/3 full sounds good to me

yeah, you forgot the factor in your equation.....  That's where you made the error.      You have to calculate using Washington Fuzzy Math

[Estibaliz 3,037]

5 minutes ago, AnJ Co said:

yeah, you forgot the factor in your equation.....  That's where you made the error.      You have to calculate using Washington Fuzzy Math

Oh, true... old good Washington Fuzzy Math. My bad!

[Ste&Sel 151]

OK, hoping today is a great day for all 3/13 noa1'rs  ......and everybody else. Day 137 for us

[twoDs 590]

8 minutes ago, AnJ Co said:

yeah, you forgot the factor in your equation.....  That's where you made the error.      You have to calculate using Washington Fuzzy Math

One thing I've noticed in the data, not that it throws it off a lot, but additional cases with NOA1 start appearing as NOA2s get issued by new members signing up to get NOA2 news.

 

I saw the % approved on one day go backwards when I was working on it and realized it was a new member after digging into the detail. It'll be interesting to see what the highest % approved ends up being for "big" days due to abandoned updates, etc. 3/7 is at 83% with 15 out of 18 approved, that's impressively good given that many cases.

[twoDs 590]

A 7/27 NOA2 for a 3/30 filer from Columbia is now in the VJ database, as is KosmicBlue's 7/25.

Edited July 28, 2017 by twoDs