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retemad

How accurate are VisaJourney's estimates?

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They are pretty accurate but there's always someone that's approved much earlier or much later.

Just expect to see a response around then. If you expect you're going to see something in 2 months you're probably just going to disappoint yourself.


K1 Process -

1/30/12 - I-129F sent

2/2/12 - NOA1 Received (CSC)

2/3/12 - Visa App Fee Check Cashed

6/18/12 - NOA2 Email Received at 9PM MST

6/22/12 - NOA2 Letter Received in Mail

7/11/12 - NVC Received

7/13/12 - NVC Sent Case to Moldova Embassy

7/18/12 - Packet 3 dropped off to Embassy

7/19/12 - Packet 3 & 4 Instructions Received from Embassy

7/23/12 - Medical Exam Passed

7/27/12 - Interview

8/4/12 - POE Denver, CO

9/14/12 - Wedding #1 (Denver Courthouse)

9/17/12 - AOS/EAD sent

9/19/12 - AOS/EAD NOA1

10/23/12 - Biometrics

1/16/23 - AOS Interview

6/15/13 - Wedding #2 (Colorado)

6/22/13 - Wedding #3 (Moldova)

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The VJ statistics are only as accurate as the number of fellow VJ forum members that correctly fill in their timelines. B-)


Completed: K1/K2 (271 days) - AOS/EAD/AP (134 days) - ROC (279 days)

> Almost 2 years of our lives involved with the USCIS/DOS "shuffle" & worth every second of it ! <

"Si vis amari, ama" - Seneca

_______________________

:idea: Read more, post less.... Google can be your friend ! :idea:

Prior apologies if I can explain it to you, but I can't understand it for you.

Keep your timeline current: http://www.visajourney.com/timeline/

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It is just an estimate to put you in the general ball park.


Sent I-129 Application to VSC 2/1/12
NOA1 2/8/12
RFE 8/2/12
RFE reply 8/3/12
NOA2 8/16/12
NVC received 8/27/12
NVC left 8/29/12
Manila Embassy received 9/5/12
Visa appointment & approval 9/7/12
Arrived in US 10/5/2012
Married 11/24/2012
AOS application sent 12/19/12

AOS approved 8/24/13

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For K1 at CSC it is not accurate at all. Why? It calculates it by what has been reported by VJ members recently. In the past month only a few have have been approved and some of those were from November and October. So, until CSC starts to approve stuff on a regular basis I would ignore the estimate.


NOA1 - 8/24/2012

NOA2 - 3/18/2013 Only took 207 days at CSC

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My NOA1 date is in September. At first the estimate for the NOA2 was sometime in December through January, then late January to Mid February, now I'm back to December 9 to Jan 15. So Just take it as a rough estimate, it will surely change a few times. I'm still expecting mid to late January.


Journey so far:

09/14/2012: Sent I-129F Packet

09/21/2012: NOA1 Received

04/22/2013: NOA2 Notice of approval
05/08/2013 NVC Received

06/01/2013 Packet 3 Received

06/04/2013 Packet 3 Sent

06/10/2013 Packet 4 email received

06/27/2013 First Scheduled interview-cancelled (didn't get notarized paperwork in time)

08/12/2013 K-1 interview passed!

08/28/2013 Lili Arrives in the U.S.!!!

10/04/2013 Marriage!!!

03/26/2014 AOS Approved!

04/02/2014 Received GC

Stop being afraid of what could go wrong, and think of what could go right!

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*** Thread moved from K-1 Process forum to Site Discussion forum -- topic involves a VisaJourney function (timelines). ***


06-04-2007 = TSC stamps postal return-receipt for I-129f.

06-11-2007 = NOA1 date (unknown to me).

07-20-2007 = Phoned Immigration Officer; got WAC#; where's NOA1?

09-25-2007 = Touch (first-ever).

09-28-2007 = NOA1, 23 days after their 45-day promise to send it (grrrr).

10-20 & 11-14-2007 = Phoned ImmOffs; "still pending."

12-11-2007 = 180 days; file is "between workstations, may be early Jan."; touches 12/11 & 12/12.

12-18-2007 = Call; file is with Division 9 ofcr. (bckgrnd check); e-prompt to shake it; touch.

12-19-2007 = NOA2 by e-mail & web, dated 12-18-07 (187 days; 201 per VJ); in mail 12/24/07.

01-09-2008 = File from USCIS to NVC, 1-4-08; NVC creates file, 1/15/08; to consulate 1/16/08.

01-23-2008 = Consulate gets file; outdated Packet 4 mailed to fiancee 1/27/08; rec'd 3/3/08.

04-29-2008 = Fiancee's 4-min. consular interview, 8:30 a.m.; much evidence brought but not allowed to be presented (consul: "More proof! Second interview! Bring your fiance!").

05-05-2008 = Infuriating $12 call to non-English-speaking consulate appointment-setter.

05-06-2008 = Better $12 call to English-speaker; "joint" interview date 6/30/08 (my selection).

06-30-2008 = Stokes Interrogations w/Ecuadorian (not USC); "wait 2 weeks; we'll mail her."

07-2008 = Daily calls to DOS: "currently processing"; 8/05 = Phoned consulate, got Section Chief; wrote him.

08-07-08 = E-mail from consulate, promising to issue visa "as soon as we get her passport" (on 8/12, per DHL).

08-27-08 = Phoned consulate (they "couldn't find" our file); visa DHL'd 8/28; in hand 9/1; through POE on 10/9 with NO hassles(!).

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To answer your question, my NOA1 is Nov 17. My timeline use to show end of March - mid April. It has changed a few times and now it estimates the earliest time as Feb. 18. But I know it can keep fluctuating and it's only an estimate. There are thousands of people applying for visas and this timeline only accounts for those that are VJ members.... and only those members that accurately fill in their timelines. I agree with the comment about there not being enough approvals lately for it to give a fair estimate. BUT some people in other threads say there vj timeline was accurate within about 10 days. Keep in mind it may have changed several times while they were waiting and by the time it got close to receiving their noa2 it may have been a better estimate. I have heard that those filing after August 15 are getting approved faster because of extra staff and cases being handled by an additional office. I don't know if this is true or if its a rumor. I don't know if it even applies to K1. I have to trust that God knows the perfect time for our case. And truthfully, if it comes too soon I'm not even sure if we will have everything ready we need to do. Hang in there. I know it's hard. If after 5 or 6 months you are still waiting there are steps you can take to find out why.

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To answer your question, my NOA1 is Nov 17. My timeline use to show end of March - mid April. It has changed a few times and now it estimates the earliest time as Feb. 18. But I know it can keep fluctuating and it's only an estimate. There are thousands of people applying for visas and this timeline only accounts for those that are VJ members.... and only those members that accurately fill in their timelines. I agree with the comment about there not being enough approvals lately for it to give a fair estimate. BUT some people in other threads say there vj timeline was accurate within about 10 days. Keep in mind it may have changed several times while they were waiting and by the time it got close to receiving their noa2 it may have been a better estimate. I have heard that those filing after August 15 are getting approved faster because of extra staff and cases being handled by an additional office. I don't know if this is true or if its a rumor. I don't know if it even applies to K1. I have to trust that God knows the perfect time for our case. And truthfully, if it comes too soon I'm not even sure if we will have everything ready we need to do. Hang in there. I know it's hard. If after 5 or 6 months you are still waiting there are steps you can take to find out why.

Yea, mine has been fluctuating too. I'm up to Feb 9 now from mid March, so I'm sure it's just based off members accurately filling in theirntimelines recently. Looking at the trend it does appear like the volume of applications is decreasing during the last month or two, which is a good sign I am assuming. Less to process? I have been ressearchin and the prevails do seems like they have been roughly accurate for the most part with a few exceptions. My case is very straightforward and I am positive that I have sent a thorough and complete packet wit the help of lots of friends who have married someone from Iran. I just was curious if they do the cases in batches and if anyone else who filed in the same timeframe is hearing anything or seeing the same estimates??

Thanks for all your replies. Thank god for this site as it has been more than helpful in this looooooooong process!

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If you ever see strange entries with clearly wrong dates please let me know in this forum. We do not use improper dates in the estimation process but if we can correct items then it helps by then making those timelines a part of future estimations. Especially when there is a new year people often make mistakes by entering the old year by accident.

I periodically run a script to help find errors and we then manually fix them, but with your help it will be even better.


I am an Ewok. I am here to to keep the peace. Please contact me if you have a problem with the site or a complaint regarding a violation of the Terms of Service. For the fastest response please use the 'Contact Us' page to contact me.

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If you ever see strange entries with clearly wrong dates please let me know in this forum. We do not use improper dates in the estimation process but if we can correct items then it helps by then making those timelines a part of future estimations. Especially when there is a new year people often make mistakes by entering the old year by accident.

I periodically run a script to help find errors and we then manually fix them, but with your help it will be even better.

Yea for the most part they look roughly accurate. There are a few outliers, but that could also be because of exceptions like expedite requests...

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can't some users be filtered/deleted from the timeline so that the timeline's estimates are as accurate as possible?

i mean...purge people that have not done anything with the timeline for over a year...or peolpe that have not even logged onto the board in 5 months or something...

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We ignore timelines with dates or processing durations that are outliers. Those timelines are not used in the estimates (so in some ways the same as deleting, per your suggestion).


I am an Ewok. I am here to to keep the peace. Please contact me if you have a problem with the site or a complaint regarding a violation of the Terms of Service. For the fastest response please use the 'Contact Us' page to contact me.

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We ignore timelines with dates or processing durations that are outliers. Those timelines are not used in the estimates (so in some ways the same as deleting, per your suggestion).

So I am noticing that "there are not enough timelines to give an accurate estimate", and noticed that they are processing Sept 19 filers? It seems like it is jumping a week every day. Of course this would be GREAT NEWS, but I can't help but be skeptical of this data. What does everyone think and when would they be able to provide estimates again? It seems like I am not the only one...

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