What do you do when reality doesn't look good for your team? Republicans just create their own alternate reality.

[one...two...tree 2,762]

We are looking at a very tight race right now, with a virtual tie in national polling. But we don't elect presidents by popular vote, and Obama has enjoyed a lead in the race to get 270 votes in the Electoral College every single day of this campaign – Romney has never led in any of the Electoral College projections.

But in recent days, the Romney-Ryan campaign has claimed that it's moving ahead. As Jonathan Chait noted [3], "This is a bluff. Romney is carefully attempting to project an atmosphere of momentum, in the hopes of winning positive media coverage and, thus, creating a self-fulfilling prophecy." Despite zero evidence that Romney has made any gains since receiving a healthy bounce from the first debate, reporters appear to be buying it, with a raft of lazy stories [4] about Mitt Romney's supposed "momentum."

A significant problem for conservatives bent on spinning this alternate reality is New York Times' polling guru Nate Silver and his 538 forecast model, which called 49 out of 50 states accurately in 2008 and is considered the industry's gold standard (the model also pretty much nailed the 2010 mid-terms). As I write, Silver's model gives Barack Obama a 68 percent chance of winning reelection, with a projected 288 Electoral College votes.

As one might expect in such circumstances, Silver is now becoming a target of the Right. We've seen 'poll truthers' who think all the big pollsters are intentionally skewing their results in Obama's favor, and 'debate truthers" who insist that moderators are in the tank and the questions are rigged to make Romney look bad. Now we're seeing the emergence of 'Nate Silver truthers,' who attack the numbers-cruncher as if he's a pundit expressing a personal opinion rather than a statistics geek who developed a very robust computer model. And they're using the same tactics they deploy to deny climate change – launching ad hominem attacks on an expert -- calling him corrupt -- rather than offering a criticism of the methodology of his model, a criticism they don't have the technical knowledge to come up with.

Robert Stacey McCain, a notably dense right-wing blogger who nonetheless holds some influence in conservative circles, framed it [5] like this: "Nate Silver continues to lead the Democrat Graveyard Whistling Choir, raising Obama to a 70.3% likelihood of victory based on . . . what? I dunno. I'm not an expert with a New York Times column or anything, much less a Magical Forecasting Model™ that can divine future events with the precise scientific exactitude of 1/10 of one percent."

McCain only reveals his own impressive ignorance with this passage. Silver's quite transparent about his methodology. He built a computer model that uses state and national polls and a number of economic metrics to determine the likelihood of an outcome. It isn't magical, and it doesn't "divine" anything. Any statistical models will result in a number that can be rounded to however many digits one wants. A likelihood, by definition, is not a prediction.

At the National Review, Josh Jordan drew the short straw and got the sorry task of going after Silver [6]. He shows quite clearly the fundamental error of the right's emerging narrative:

While there is nothing wrong with trying to make sense of the polls, it should be noted that Nate Silver is openly rooting for Obama, and it shows in the way he forecasts the election.

On September 30, leading into the debates, Silver gave Obama an 85 percent chance and predicted an Electoral College count of 320–218. Today, the margins have narrowed — but Silver still gives Obama a 67 percent chance and an Electoral College lead of 288–250, which has led many to wonder if he has observed the same movement to Romney over the past three weeks as everyone else has. Given the fact that an incumbent president is stuck at 47 percent nationwide, the odds might not be in Obama's favor, and they certainly aren't in his favor by a 67–33 margin.

The main reason that Silver feels Obama is still an overwhelming favorite is that while Romney has surged in the polls to tie (or lead) Obama nationally, the challenger is still, in Silver's opinion, a long shot to pull together enough battleground states to get to 270 electoral votes. This is the real problem with Silver's model in the eyes of many Romney backers — the "weighting" he puts into state polls gives an edge to Obama, and the distribution of that weighting is highly subjective.

Jordan is confused about how Silver's model works. He believes that Silver is tinkering with his projection along the way, no doubt because he's "rooting for Obama." He says Silver "gave Obama" an 85 percent chance of winning, he asks if Silver "observed" movements in the polls, he cites "Silver's opinion" and talks about what "Silver feels." He calls Silver's weighting of state polls "subjective."

But here's the thing: Silver isn't a pundit. He doesn't adjust his model once a campaign gets underway -- even if he sees a way to refine it -- because he believes a model should be consistent in its methodology throughout a campaign. It's the model that weights certain polls more heavily than others – based on pollsters' past track records – it's the model that weights the state polls, and it's the model that gives decreasing weight to the economic data as the election grows nearer. No model is perfect -- as Nate Silver would be the first to admit -- but his 538 model is the result of years of statistical numbers-crunching. Having created it long before this election got underway, Silver simply inputs the data from every poll published – not selecting which confirm his view of the race – and the economic data, and runs thousands of simulations per day using those numbers.

He only very occasionally makes a judgment call, and in those cases he's very transparent and his rationale is quite easy to understand. For example, he chose to exclude a poll that was released this week because it was actually conducted in September. He made note of the omission, and he's right not to add September data into the mix in late October.

He does offer analysis of what his model is telling him, but the projections are done by a computer that doesn't have a horse in this or any race. Its microchips and software are neither Democratic nor Republican. It's all based on cold, dispassionate computing of statistical probabilities.

So while desperate Republicans who have convinced themselves that Obama is universally loathed try to stave off cognitive dissonance by insisting that Romney's the clear front-runner, remember that while no model is 100 percent accurate, Silver's has one of the best track records in the game. And that means that while things could change -- and Romney certainly has a good chance of winning (according to Silver, a 32 percent chance as I'm writing) -- Obama's leading where it counts right now.

http://www.alternet....silver-truthers

[Pooky 3,348]

(edited to remove quoted TOS violation)

The reply suited the article, I thought.

It's all just conjecture, anyway. The only poll numbers that matter, the ones that truly determine who is ahead in this race, are the ones that are the result of the vote on November 6th.

Everything until then is just noise from one side or the other

Edited October 28, 2012 by Kathryn41
editd to remove TOS violation

[Obama 2012 1,714]

alternet and addictinginfo and similar sites need pacifiers to makes themselves feel better.

The left wing is seriously crapping their pants right now and will do ANYTHING (at this point threaten death as we've seen on social media sites) to discourage people from voting on the right side of the aisle.

[Dan J 277]

Nate Silver is a statistician who has been pretty damn accurate. In the polling biz you make your money based on how close you can predict the result not on whether or not not your predictions fit one party's idea of reality. But there is a self fulfilling prophecy angle to this. If the media/pollsters are saying your candidate is going to loose anyway, why bother going out to vote? By not going to vote, you make the prediction come true. This is what Romney and other conservatives are trying to attack.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

Nate Silver is a statistician who has been pretty damn accurate. In the polling biz you make your money based on how close you can predict the result not on whether or not not your predictions fit one party's idea of reality. But there is a self fulfilling prophecy angle to this. If the media/pollsters are saying your candidate is going to loose anyway, why bother going out to vote? By not going to vote, you make the prediction come true. This is what Romney and other conservatives are trying to attack.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nate_Silver

Nate Silver

My state [illinois] has non-partisan registration, so I am not registered as anything. I vote for Democratic candidates the majority of the time (though by no means always). This year, I have been a supporter of Barack Obama".

[Dan J 277]

A lot of people have preferred candidates or parties, but that does not preclude them from being able to make a neutral analysis. If you take into consideration the data and historical trends, its not hard to conclude that Obama has a higher probability of winning than Romney. But its still in the end just a probability. Romney could still win even if Nate Silver has estimated a 30 some percentage chance of him doing so.

The storm that is about to hit the east coast could effect turnout, and untimely the outcome. Maybe that will increase the probability that Romney will win, or decrease it. Its probably going to come down to which states are affected, and which of those states have early voting (Get the vote in before the storm) or are using electronic voting machines (They wont work if the power is out on election day).

[OnMyWayID 1,489]

We are looking at a very tight race right now, with a virtual tie in national polling. But we don't elect presidents by popular vote, and Obama has enjoyed a lead in the race to get 270 votes in the Electoral College every single day of this campaign – Romney has never led in any of the Electoral College projections.

This is not true.. Romney never led in any of the electoral College projections until last week.. He is currently leading in the Rasmussen polls Romney Leads Electoral College in Latest Polls. And it is an outright lie to say he does not have momentum. He was way behind, then he was less behind, then he was even less behind, then he was dead even, now he is slightly ahead.

It is not spin to call this momentum because that is what it is.. it is spin (and in this case a direct lie) to call it anything else.

Edited October 28, 2012 by OnMyWayID

[one...two...tree 2,762]

This is not true.. Romney never led in any of the electoral College projections until last week.. He is currently leading in the Rasmussen polls Romney Leads Electoral College in Latest Polls. And it is an outright lie to say he does not have momentum. He was way behind, then he was less behind, then he was even less behind, then he was dead even, now he is slightly ahead.

It is not spin to call this momentum because that is what it is.. it is spin (and in this case a direct lie) to call it anything else.

Rasmussen is only one polling source and no one who seriously looks into the projections relies on a single source, so you've missed the point. Nate Silver relies on several polling sources along with other data to formulate projections. As the OP indicates, his method is transparent and has a solid track record.

[OnMyWayID 1,489]

Rasmussen is only one polling source and no one who seriously looks into the projections relies on a single source, so you've missed the point. Nate Silver relies on several polling sources along with other data to formulate projections. As the OP indicates, his method is transparent and has a solid track record.

I didn't miss the point.. You came across a poorly written article but it said what you wanted to hear so naturally you posted it without doing any checking and so I did five minutes of checking to see the article was tripe and pointed it out.. Your welcome.

[Karee 4,189]

I didn't miss the point.. You came across a poorly written article but it said what you wanted to hear so naturally you posted it without doing any checking and so I did five minutes of checking to see the article was tripe and pointed it out.. Your welcome.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

I didn't miss the point.. You came across a poorly written article but it said what you wanted to hear so naturally you posted it without doing any checking and so I did five minutes of checking to see the article was tripe and pointed it out.. Your welcome.

+100

[spookyturtle 9,465]

Reality is for people who can't handle drugs.

[G0ds1ay3r 30]

....

Edited October 28, 2012 by scottjess

[one...two...tree 2,762]

I didn't miss the point.. You came across a poorly written article but it said what you wanted to hear so naturally you posted it without doing any checking and so I did five minutes of checking to see the article was tripe and pointed it out.. Your welcome.

How about actually arguing a point beyond petty dismissiveness and back handed insults? Go ahead and explain why you think Nate Silver's election projections are baseless while embracing a single polling source out of hundreds is being

intellectually prudent?

Edited October 28, 2012 by Commie Appeaser

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

Today's pot meets kettle moment of comedic zen.

When have you ever seen me post a bogus link on here?