How Reagan Nearly Blew Us Up

[IR5FORMUMSIE 850]

President Bonzo strikes again. Must have been past his bedtime. Had to see a movie before he finally figured it out.

"There is no historical precedent

To put the words in the mouth of the president

There's no such thing as a winnable war

It's a lie we don't believe anymore

Mr. Reagan says we will protect you

I don't subscribe to this point of view

Believe me when I say to you

I hope the Russians love their children too " - Sting, Russians

-

Ronald Reagan: Worst President Ever?

Ah…those teary eyed worshipers of Ronald Reagan, spouting his greatness.

Worse president ever?? I can hear the screams now, especially those who actually desire to put him on Mt. Rushmore right next to George Washington, Thomas Jefferson, Theodore Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln.

So how could I even remotely think that he is the worse president ever?

Because his actions and words almost killed us all. Thermonuclear war and the destruction of the world.

To explain, lets go back in history….

KGB director Yuri Andropov, then chairman of KGB, was one of the “ole school” cold war warriors and he was convinced that Reagan and the United States were preparing for a “first-strike” nuclear launch.

To determine if this was true, as chairman of the KGB he instructed all his KGB spies to be on the lookout for telltale clues when this strike was to occur. Known as Project RYAN, these KGB agents took on a tremendous surveillance program to gather information from the United States and NATO.

The United States were installing Pershing II missiles in Europe that were designed to be launched from road-mobile vehicles, making the launch sites very hard to find. The flight time from West Germany to European Russia was only four to six minutes (approximate flying time from six to eight minutes from West Germany to Moscow), giving the Soviets little or no warning.

Not even giving time for the Soviet leaders to see a counter attack, much less time to respond to it.

Then on March of 1983, Ronald Reagan publicly announced development of the SDI program. In addition, he ordered the increase of PSYOP operations against the Soviets. These operations consisted of bombers flying as close to Soviet Airspace to test their response times and naval ships stealthily going into Soviet waters near the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom known as the GIUK gap, and the Barents, Norwegian, Black, and Baltic seas.

Soviet leadership felt that the use of SDI technology was to render America invulnerable to Soviet attack, thereby allowing the US to launch missiles against the USSR with no fear of retaliation from the first strike scenario.

This concern about a surprise attack prompted sudden expansion and final step of the RYAN program. Reagan had dramatically stepped up his rhetoric, calling the Soviet Union the evil empire. Also Reagan, not knowing that the microphone was on, jokingly at one press conference declared the Soviet Union was illegal and they begin bombing in 5 minutes. Ha Ha…what a kidder.

In September of 1983, the Soviets shot down Korean Airliner KAL 007 near Moneron Island and the United States really laid on the international pressure, condemning the Soviets with unusually harsh wording on the diplomatic world. Relations with the Soviets were at an all time hot level.

Another incident in September caused by a flaw in a new Soviet radar system caused a false alarm that required lieutenant colonel Stanislav Petrov to second guess about a glitch showing missiles launched from the United States. There has been a couple of posts here on MMA about this incident later known as “The man who saved the World”.

So that is the situation, the Soviets think that a first strike plan is in it’s final stages. Diplomatic relations are at a all time low because of Reagan rhetoric about the Evil Empire. Reagan also refuses to stop the Pershing II missile program in Europe and Star Wars SDI program.

The KGB were ABSOLUTELY convinced that a first strike was going to happen in the next few months. All that was left were a certain sequence of events to occur that Project Ryan had determined would be the final indicators needed.

When those indicators occurred, the KGB would recommend the Soviets do a “Use them or lose them” first strike before the United States destroyed their country.

These indicators started to occur when NATO began one of the largest military exercises and simulations in history.

Known as Archer Able, this was an exercise to use all US and Nato forces to simulate as close as possible a war that went from DefCon 5 to DefCon 1.

In other words, simulate a nuclear war with the Soviets just when they were expecting a real one.

During the exercise, procedures and communications methods were used that had previously never been monitored by the Soviets.

One of the major indications defined by Project Ryan was a huge increase in coded messages defined as “nuclear consultation” between the United States and Great Britain. Soviet analysts started picking up a huge increase in such coded messages between the United States and the UK starting in October, 1983.

But in reality, the burst of communication regarded the US invasion of Grenada on October 25, 1983, which caused a great deal of diplomatic traffic as the sovereign of the island was Queen Elizabeth II.

Upon learning that US nuclear activity mirrored its hypothesized first strike activity, the Moscow Centre sent its residencies a flash telegram on November 8 incorrectly reporting an alert on American bases and frantically asking for further information regarding an American first strike. The alert precisely coincided with the seven- to ten-day period estimated between NATO’s preliminary decision and an actual strike.

While these phases were simulated, alarmist KGB agents mistakenly reported them as actual. According to Soviet intelligence, NATO doctrine stated, “Operational readiness No 1 is declared when there are obvious indications of preparation to begin military operations. It is considered that war is inevitable and may start at any moment.

The Soviets went into condition Orange, a level of preparedness for nuclear attack that was expected to occur within the next 36 hours. Believing its only chance of surviving a NATO strike was to preempt it, the Soviets started to ready its nuclear arsenal, preparing for launch.

Meanwhile the CIA started reporting activity in the Soviet Union, especially in the Baltic Military District, in Czechoslovakia, and it determined that nuclear capable aircraft in Poland and East Germany were placed “on high alert status with readying of nuclear strike forces”.

The perfect storm of events and words that created the possibility of mankinds destruction.

But on November 11th, the Archer Able military exercises completed. All operations went back to normal and the Soviets returned to normal military operations.

The United States and NATO were completely unaware of what really caused the event until later, when a KGB double agent, Oleg Gordievsky, informed British Intelligence on what occurred.

Informed of this information, Reagan responded with “genuine anxiety” in disbelief that a regular NATO exercise could have led to an armed attack. To the ailing Politburo—led from the deathbed of the terminally ill Andropov, a man with no firsthand knowledge of the United States, and the creator of Operation RYAN—it seemed “that the United States was preparing to launch … a sudden nuclear attack on the Soviet Union”.

In his memoirs, Reagan, without specifically mentioning Able Archer 83—he states earlier that he cannot mention classified information—wrote of a 1983 realization:

Three years had taught me something surprising about the Russians: Many people at the top of the Soviet hierarchy were genuinely afraid of America and Americans. Perhaps this shouldn’t have surprised me, but it did … During my first years in Washington, I think many of us in the administration took it for granted that the Russians, like ourselves, considered it unthinkable that the United States would launch a first strike against them. But the more experience I had with Soviet leaders and other heads of state who knew them, the more I began to realize that many Soviet officials feared us not only as adversaries but as potential aggressors who might hurl nuclear weapons at them in a first strike.

Here was our “leader”, a man in charge of the most destructive force in the world, creating one of the most heated political situations against a paranoid adversary with the same destructive potential.

Reagan’s grandstanding and his famous “Great Communicator” sound bites that made him so popular, served him well during his political career. A skill that got him elected president.

But words have meaning and create actions on the international stage that he never fully understood as the president. Reagan created a political situation with a couple of years of “baiting the bear” and narrowly escaped by just days, perhaps by hours even… unparalleled nuclear disaster that only luck prevented.

Unfortunately, there is no such thing as a learning curve and hindsight when it comes to nuclear war.

So that is why I think that President Reagan was the worst president ever.

My link

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

A lot of "what if's" compared to the reality of the Cuban Missile Crisis, much like the Korean Conflict, that only ended by the decisions of commanders on the ground, not politicians sitting in war rooms thousands of miles away.

Edited August 13, 2011 by Crusty Old Perv

[IR5FORMUMSIE 850]

A lot of "what if's" compared to the reality of the Cuban Missile Crisis, much like the Korean Conflict, that only ended by the decisions of commanders on the ground, not politicians sitting in war rooms thousands of miles away.

The MAJOR difference is that Rompin' Ronnie had no idea what he was doing. Kennedy and Eisenhower/Truman were far more capable of understanding the situations and didn't leave decisions to their commanders on the ground. They didn't see some silly movie and suddenly have an epiphany.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

The MAJOR difference is that Rompin' Ronnie had no idea what he was doing. Kennedy and Eisenhower/Truman were far more capable of understanding the situations and didn't leave decisions to their commanders on the ground. They didn't see some silly movie and suddenly have an epiphany.

You should take a trip to Sylmar, and see if you still come to that conclusion. For Kennedy and Truman, insight would not be a trait of either man in historical perspective, even though each viewed the Soviets from opposite perspectives. Truman did everything he could not to offend the Soviets, while Kennedy provoked them at every opportunity.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

The MAJOR difference is that Rompin' Ronnie had no idea what he was doing. Kennedy and Eisenhower/Truman were far more capable of understanding the situations and didn't leave decisions to their commanders on the ground. They didn't see some silly movie and suddenly have an epiphany.

The Korean Conflict ceased hostilities when commanders on the ground decided to do so. The Soviet commander on the ground decided not to release nuclear missiles, although Kennedy had no idea that the missiles were capable, and the commander had the authority to do so.

Edited August 13, 2011 by Crusty Old Perv

[IR5FORMUMSIE 850]

You should take a trip to Sylmar, and see if you still come to that conclusion. For Kennedy and Truman, insight would not be a trait of either man in historical perspective, even though each viewed the Soviets from opposite perspectives. Truman did everything he could not to offend the Soviets, while Kennedy provoked them at every opportunity.

Without taking away from issue of Reagan's behaviour, your logic betrays you. Using a proleptic lens doesn't prove your point. Kennedy certainly pushed the buttons of the Soviets and Truman was more pragmatic, however they UNDERSTOOD what was going on. Both men had a certain amount of insight, Kennedy committed an act of war with the embargo but, realistically, Reagan had all the previous dealings with the Soviets to look back on. Neither Truman nor Kennedy had anything to consult with.

[IR5FORMUMSIE 850]

The Korean Conflict ceased hostilities when commanders on the ground decided to do so. The Soviet commander on the ground decided not to release nuclear missiles, although Kennedy had no idea that the missiles were capable, and the commander had the authority to do so.

The Soviet commander was given the recall by Moscow and The Police Action was at a stalemate so everybody decided enough was enough. The commanders can give briefings and MacArthur was in trouble for ignoring the President, so if commanders were responsible then that would not have happened.

[mawilson 2,133]

So that is why I think that President Reagan was the worst president ever.

Really, that's the conclusion?

Not that Yuri Andropov was the worst president of Russia? (Well, GenSec of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union to be precise.)

[IR5FORMUMSIE 850]

Really, that's the conclusion?

Not that Yuri Andropov was the worst president of Russia? (Well, GenSec of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union to be precise.)

That's not my conclusion, it's the author's based solely on this situation.

Edited August 13, 2011 by IR5FORMUMSIE

[luckytxn 2,264]

Yet when all was said and done with Reagan brought down the feared Soviet Union. The wall came down. Reagan decided to ratch up the confrontation for sure. He decided to confront them on many fronts. The only way for the Soviet Union to compete was they had to spend the money and now we know they were pretty backward enough that they had to outspend us to keep up. The Soviet leaders had gotten very soft by our previous presidents accommodating them at every turn. Even back during Truman days he wanted nothing to do with stirring up the Evil empire. Kennedy yes seemed like he was so tough and all and he did escalate the crisis and it looked like the Soviets blinked but we now know that a secret agreement was made by Kennedy that had to stay secret or he would have been defeated in the next elections. Also he would have had his messiah image sullied.

That war games in the article went on every year. It was called Reforger and I went the following year in 84. Yes we did practice all facets of war and even nuclear possibilities. The Soviets were freaked by the missiles as they should have been. It meant they were checked at that time. During my time in the service Psyops was being used more. The Soviets were masters at the art. The Soviets knew we always had these war games. They knew we were using psyops. They saw their gains in our hemisphere eroding. They were used to the Americans accommodate them in everything. They played us as fools and thought it would last forever. Well it didn't and because they were practically bankrupt they had to fold They stretched themselves too thin. That happens when one tries to dominate the world on a welfare recipient wage.

Truman did show ballz to go into Korea but he was weak to do what needed done to win the war. Kennedy was snookered. There was no way that he or Eisenhower before him should have NOT known that the Soviets were introducing nukes into Cuba. It shows they were incompetent or scared. The Soviets played a game and won and secured Eastern Europe and themselves a security that was never to be shaken until Reagan came along. I grew up with the U.S. policy toward the Soviets as Detente and understanding them. It was to be a one way street with them though. They were brutal dictators that became paranoid of not just the outside of their borders but within. It felt good to be an American again during Reagan and especially after Carter, Ford and Nixon before him.

Edited August 13, 2011 by luckytxn

[slim 1,530]

Saying Reagan is the worst because of what almost happened is like saying Obmama is the best because of what he's promised to do.

[ready4ONE 5,400]

Gotta agree with the 'too many what ifs' comments.

[Pooky 3,809]

So, basically, the Russian cluelessness about the nature of the UK - US communications traffic over the Grenada situation means that Reagan is the worst US President ever?

As for Cuba, most people don't realise that after the Russians withdrew their missiles from Cuba, the US withdrew their Thor IRBMs from Turkey (and took back the ones in service with the RAF in the UK) in 1963.

You never get something for nothing.

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

Pitiful. So is this what President Downgrade will be dooing for his campaign?

[Mr. Big Dog 10,747]

Truman did everything he could not to offend the Soviets, while Kennedy provoked them at every opportunity.

Kennedy provoked the Soviets? I thought it was the other way around. I've lived in the shadow of the product of the Soviets provoking Kennedy for the first 21 years of my life. Trust me, they provoked him. Not the other way around.

Edited August 14, 2011 by Mr. Big Dog