For many people it is getting close to being a retirement visa.
I have seen people try and calculate it, we do know how many are waiting and 65,000 are allocated a year, but we do not know how many dependents, how many will die, change their minds or move to the US in a different way.
There are factors like Humanitarian Reinstatement. That used to be pretty rare, my impression is that it is much more common now.
I used to multiply current wait time by 50% now I double, but there is no way anyone can really know.
There has been talk of doing away with F3, F4 and DV for as long as I can remember, I seriously doubt there will be any change in the foreseeable future.