The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

[TBoneTX 49,823]

Long, but understandable and captivatingly fascinating.  Listen or read.

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The Global Fertility Crisis Is Worse Than You Probably Think

 

[...] "Only two things are important right now in life: fertility and deep learning," the University of Pennsylvania economist Jesús Fernández-Villaverde said at the conclusion of a recent lecture.  "Everything else is noise.  Once you start thinking about these, it's hard to start thinking about anything else."

 

In today's interview, Fernández-Villaverde explains:

 

• Demographics 101: Defining total fertility rate, replacement rate, and momentum

• Why the world has probably already passed "peak child"

• Why 2023 was the first year in human history that the global fertility rate likely fell below the replacement rate

• Why the question "why is the birthrate declining?" is so hard to answer quickly

• Why most people underrate the long-term effects of low birthrates on world affairs

• The compounding effects of sub-replacement level fertility:  "If Thailand keeps its current fertility rate of 0.8 for the next 200 years without immigration, its population will decline from 63 million to 2 million."  [...]

 

https://www.derekthompson.org/p/why-the-whole-world-stopped-having

[Ban Hammer 15,231]

items not mentioned are microplastics and declining sperm rates - both of which are probably connected and a major part of this too.

[Dashinka 26,746]

There are way to many factors involved and those factors vary from country to country.  I was just in the ROK, and a lot of folks talk about it, but not much is done about it.  I did meet with my younger friends who recently had a son, not sure if they are going for number two or not, time will tell.

[TBoneTX 49,823]

4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

my younger friends who recently had a son

They are probably remarkable purely for this.

4 hours ago, Dashinka said:

a lot of folks talk about it, but not much is done about it

Did you get any sense of what's being done that's most effective, or "least ineffective"?

[Dashinka 26,746]

50 minutes ago, TBoneTX said:

They are probably remarkable purely for this.

Did you get any sense of what's being done that's most effective, or "least ineffective"?

Most recent thing I can find.  One of the biggest factors there is women establishing careers, and not having children until later in life.  Of course this is not specific to the ROK as this happens a lot all over the developed world, although in Korea it is very difficult to make ends meet without two incomes.

 

https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/southkorea/society/20231231/korea-to-expand-baby-bonuses-housing-support-to-fight-worlds-lowest-fertility-rate

[TBoneTX 49,823]

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

women establishing careers, and not having children until later in life

This is arguably the biggest killer.

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

this is not specific to the ROK as this happens a lot all over the developed world

Sadly so.

2 hours ago, Dashinka said:

it is very difficult to make ends meet without two incomes

Decades ago, it used to be possible for the husband alone to work and provide.

 

Today, an overlooked factor is that school hours and work hours need to align better if wives are to have kids and daycare expense is to be minimized.

[Dashinka 26,746]

12 hours ago, TBoneTX said:

 

Decades ago, it used to be possible for the husband alone to work and provide.

 

Today, an overlooked factor is that school hours and work hours need to align better if wives are to have kids and daycare expense is to be minimized.

My mom and dad raised eight kids through the 1980's with primarily one salary (mom did some part-time work once my youngest brother started 1st grade).  

 

This is one way government could help, maybe?.?.  With flex work schedules, this allows for more alignment for families with both parents working and kids in school.  Of course more and more companies are playing the power thing saying workers need to be in the office more ostensibly to promote collaboration (hint, hint, it doesn't).  So maybe the government could step in, but not sure how. 

[TBoneTX 49,823]

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

My mom and dad raised eight kids

Holy mackerel.  Where do you rank numerically among them?

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

With flex work schedules, this allows for more alignment for families with both parents working and kids in school.

Violent agreement here.  Get the work done, and it shouldn't matter how or when.

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

promote collaboration (hint, hint, it doesn't)

Correct -- doesn't have a thing to do with it.

1 hour ago, Dashinka said:

maybe the government could step in, but not sure how

Maybe only with leading by example, which won't happen because government employees would be at highest risk of abusing the privilege.

[mam521 3,071]

The answer is simple, IMO.  Education, autonomy and financial health.  

 

Women in the US weren't allowed to open their own credit card accounts until 1974.  Before that, they required a spouse or father's permission/co-ownership.

 

Women's health is poorly understood an research pertaining specifically to women is SIGNIFICANTLY under funded. 

 

Contraception and access to it is being challenged.  

 

Fertility, both male and female, is being jeopardized by environmental factors.  

 

Child rearing is not exclusively a woman's job.  The choice to have children and take on the responsibility of child rearing should be shared, not assumed. Yet, women shoulder the majority of the burden, especially in circumstances where the men become absent. 

 

Very few developed countries offer sufficient maternity AND parental leave. The US claims to be a developed country, yet it does very little for families and has the poorest infant and maternal outcomes of any developed country.  Texas has the worst maternal mortality rates of the lower 48.  Newborn babies should NOT be in daycare, yet it's not uncommon in the US.   

 

School is NOT daycare.    

 

A capitalistic government is NEVER going to put the people first.  It's always all about the $$$ and keeping the pockets of the top 1% lined.

 

Even in mixed or social economic markets, it's a tough sell when governments are offering "incentives" for families to have babies because those incentives come from taxes they've already paid.  A place like Korea, you pay high taxes to look after the super aged 20% of the population and then you pay again to have some given back if you have a baby...seems like a lot of work for little gain.  

 

Salary disparity between men and women is 100% a thing. It's pretty significant, too. 

 

Women perform the disproportionate majority of unpaid household work. 

 

Baby boomers still own nearly half the real estate wealth in the US, despite representing only about 20% of the population.  Affordable housing is challenging, as a result. 

 

The world is a proverbial 💩 show.  When this guy is saying he doesn't have an explanation for why people are having fewer children, it's not that hard.  Socio-economic status is always going to be the most influencing factor over birth rates.  People are becoming more educated and prioritizing their own self worth and autonomy and don't want to spend every last dollar treading water to have a kid.  

 

Additionally, people are recognizing violence.  For years, women used to be trapped in abusive relationships because they lacked autonomy.  Marital rape wasn't outlawed in all US states until 1993!!! 43 countries still do NOT have legislation protecting women from their husbands.  There are well over 100 countries that still allow child marriage.  Who wants to have a kid, let alone more than one when this is the case? 

 

Sorry for the pessimism, but I am in a decent financial position, so I could afford to have kids.  However, I watched my mom struggle as she raised my brother and I in an absent father household and had to work her behind off to keep us housed, fed and clothed.  If told she was going to have to ride the struggle bus for a good proportion of her life, I suspect she'd have chosen not to get on.  People are better able to see that bus coming and are saying "nah, bro...not for me.  I want better for myself."

 

 

[Boiler 49,010]