Significant slowdown in I-129F processing in May 2025?

[horsea 2]

Hello,

 

I apologize if this has already been mentioned in another context, but I haven't seen a relevant thread yet.

 

I filed form I-129F in December 2024, and I check my case status daily with a paid service that collates data from other cases. In the past few days, the number of cases between mine and "the front of the line" has hardly shifted; it has moved on the order of 10 cases per day. Additionally, the service I use has a banner that states that "USCIS has paused movement at the front of the line." I'm currently somewhere in the ballpark of 4,500 cases from the front of the line, so at the current rate of processing, my case would be processed well over a year from now (after already waiting five to six months). The estimated processing date for my case slips backward each time I log in to check my case status.

 

The service I use has a "current wait time" histogram, and in recent days, it's changed from a right-skewed distribution with a peak around six months to a bimodal or uniform distribution spanning six to ten months.

 

Has anyone else experienced something similar with their case? Does anyone know the cause of the recent slowdown, and is it a temporary measure or a signal of a shift in policy or strategy?

[Crazy Cat 44,053]

Edit:  This is very disappointing, and quite shocking.   In the last quarter of FY 2024, USCIS was averaging more than 400 per day (I-129fs processed). 

Edited May 17 by Crazy Cat

[OldUser 9,402]

Yes, many people experienced sudden delays / shift of priorities with USCIS.

 

My I-751 was estimated to be 7 months, but took 20.5 months. USCIS also skipped block of cases where my case was, and processed other newer ones.

A friend who filed I-751 two weeks after me got processed 5-6 faster than me or cases in my block.

 

It happens. Nobody knows for sure why USCIS shifts priorities. It's a black mystery box.

 

 

[smilingstone 468]

It's difficult to go through the wait and not knowing, especially when you file during a brand new administration, as there's various things going on that cause delays, but this admin is really clamping down on immigration vetting processes.

 

The best advice I ever received when I was at your stage was to just get on with my life. Your time will come so just put it to the back of your mind until that day comes.  

[JeanneAdil 7,006]

What service has this info when USCIS has not yet put out the 2nd quarter report 

April 30th we could see the 1st quarter (October thru December for 2025)

 

https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data

 

1st quarter shows 7939 processed (this does include the ones denied) and that is 2,646 monthly and if average 30 days a month , its only 88.2 daily

Take into consideration that this includes November (Thanksgiving holidays) and December (Christmas holidays)

But we yet to have any info on January thru end of March (2nd quarter)

 

How did the service put u somewhere in the 4500 area when 28,839 are pending? 

this is only for 129f fiancee 

there are 148,423 completed I 129 for workers in same quarter and 89,852 still pending 

 

so, looks like I- 129 for workers is going faster 

[horsea 2]

3 hours ago, JeanneAdil said:

What service has this info when USCIS has not yet put out the 2nd quarter report

 

This information is coming from **. It queries the USCIS API daily to get case statuses.

 

According to the service, USCIS approved an average of 112 forms I-129F per working day (excluding weekends) during the month of April. That's fairly consistent with the figure you provided (2,475 cases approved over 30 days is ca. 83 per calendar day, which is similar to your first-quarter figure of 88). For May, this figure is currently sitting at 67 cases per working day (48 per calendar day). The number of cases being processed has dropped by half in the past month.

 

3 hours ago, JeanneAdil said:

How did the service put u somewhere in the 4500 area when 28,839 are pending?

 

I don't doubt that tens of thousands are currently pending. I think this is a proprietary algorithm the service is using to determine an approximate date for the form to be reviewed by USCIS. The service estimates that there are around 4,500 cases between the "front of the line"—what that means, I'm not entirely sure, but I think it excludes cases that have been skipped or already reviewed in some fashion—and me. This number has been decreasing more slowly than usual. It decreased by 9 between yesterday morning and this morning.

 

I think USCIS has switched to focusing on backlogged cases. It approved 54 cases on May 16, according to this service. That's fewer than the past few months, but it's not a complete cessation of activity. If the "front of the line" metric only decreased by 9, the majority of recent approvals must be older cases. This is consistent with the statement that "USCIS has paused movement at the front of the line" on **.

[OldUser 9,402]

1 hour ago, horsea said:

 

This information is coming from **. It queries the USCIS API daily to get case statuses.

 

According to the service, USCIS approved an average of 112 forms I-129F per working day (excluding weekends) during the month of April. That's fairly consistent with the figure you provided (2,475 cases approved over 30 days is ca. 83 per calendar day, which is similar to your first-quarter figure of 88). For May, this figure is currently sitting at 67 cases per working day (48 per calendar day). The number of cases being processed has dropped by half in the past month.

 

 

I don't doubt that tens of thousands are currently pending. I think this is a proprietary algorithm the service is using to determine an approximate date for the form to be reviewed by USCIS. The service estimates that there are around 4,500 cases between the "front of the line"—what that means, I'm not entirely sure, but I think it excludes cases that have been skipped or already reviewed in some fashion—and me. This number has been decreasing more slowly than usual. It decreased by 9 between yesterday morning and this morning.

 

I think USCIS has switched to focusing on backlogged cases. It approved 54 cases on May 16, according to this service. That's fewer than the past few months, but it's not a complete cessation of activity. If the "front of the line" metric only decreased by 9, the majority of recent approvals must be older cases. This is consistent with the statement that "USCIS has paused movement at the front of the line" on **.

This is usual flow of things at USCIS. First, they approve 10-20% of freshly filed cases, giving everybody excitement about quick processing times. Then they leave the rest of cases and go back to work on cases filed a while ago. At least, this is my observation.

Edited May 17 by OldUser

[lmcn 2]

6 hours ago, horsea said:

I think USCIS has switched to focusing on backlogged cases.

Looking at the 'Current Wait Time' on this service, I've noticed that last month it was strongly concentrated in the 6-7 month range, whereas now it's a more even spread from 6-10 months with a small sample past that range. I do wonder if they're cleaning up some older cases, focussing on the last 5-10% from those months. I'm a December 2024 filer too but, I would much rather them get through those cases first and then concentrate on ours to get through them quicker. I'd hate for them to get skipped over like the June-July cases.

[JeanneAdil 7,006]

14 hours ago, horsea said:

 

This information is coming from **. It queries the USCIS API daily to get case statuses.

 

According to the service, USCIS approved an average of 112 forms I-129F per working day (excluding weekends) during the month of April. That's fairly consistent with the figure you provided (2,475 cases approved over 30 days is ca. 83 per calendar day, which is similar to your first-quarter figure of 88). For May, this figure is currently sitting at 67 cases per working day (48 per calendar day). The number of cases being processed has dropped by half in the past month.

 

 

I don't doubt that tens of thousands are currently pending. I think this is a proprietary algorithm the service is using to determine an approximate date for the form to be reviewed by USCIS. The service estimates that there are around 4,500 cases between the "front of the line"—what that means, I'm not entirely sure, but I think it excludes cases that have been skipped or already reviewed in some fashion—and me. This number has been decreasing more slowly than usual. It decreased by 9 between yesterday morning and this morning.

 

I think USCIS has switched to focusing on backlogged cases. It approved 54 cases on May 16, according to this service. That's fewer than the past few months, but it's not a complete cessation of activity. If the "front of the line" metric only decreased by 9, the majority of recent approvals must be older cases. This is consistent with the statement that "USCIS has paused movement at the front of the line" on **.

Pending is over 28,000 as of end of 1st quarter (check the site for pending cases)  this will only go up in number as USCIS is reporting a rise in I 129f petitions 

 

flow chart shows since 1st quarter 22,949 K1's have been received and  only 2,129 are approved / this is on top of the pending number

 

click on the blue area to see number received and the green area to see those approved at USCIS level  there are 

 

Not sure why u pay a service when the USCIS API can be seen by any of us 

 

wishing u a good future 

 

It looks like USCIS did concentrate on worker visas to get all those nonimmigrant workers here for the spring planting and harvesting 

 

Later in the early fall ,  it will be DV lottery that they focus on 

 

it all goes in cycles with a summer showdown for vacations and the winter showdown for the Holidays

 

Not to forget Trumps lay offs

Donald Trump's administration has implemented significant personnel reductions across various federal agencies, including those involved in immigration processing and enforcement. These layoffs, part of a broader workforce reduction initiative, have sparked concerns and are expected to have a notable impact on the U.S. immigration system. 

 

 

Edited May 18 by Crazy Cat

[Crazy Cat 44,053]

***One comment edited by VJ Moderation to remove a link to an unauthorized site and a site soliciting donations****

[Dominic828 9]

Oh wow.. So I just got my Noa1 if I'm understanding correctly we have another 10+ months to go before he gets his interview? All this is still a bit confusing to me so forgive me if I seem ignorant 

[itsgia 5]

5 hours ago, Dominic828 said:

Oh wow.. So I just got my Noa1 if I'm understanding correctly we have another 10+ months to go before he gets his interview? All this is still a bit confusing to me so forgive me if I seem ignorant 

We allocated around 1.5yrs to 2yrs for this process. There's no rigid answer for "how long does this whole process gonna take", if you are lucky (and have a simple case with no redflags or whatsoever idk), your case probably will move faster than others but generally speaking, from what I have seen at the "popular" tracking website, they have around 2.5k ~ 3k cases approval flow per month since earlier this year (last year was very efficient but hell with new policy, reduced workforce, I am glad they still going at a steady rate lol). Also the timeline is very variable and heavily depending on things like are they gonna ask for RFE, how long does it take from NVC to your Consulate, wait time to setup interview, and so on...  

 

 

For example, in Canada, Montreal is the only place that do K1 visa which could create a huge back logs so yeah, it is hard to predict, no certain answers and the only thing you can do is leave it there and checking-in regularly. It is a lengthy process (and stressful as well) but checking-in everyday will just gonna make it feel so long. So find something to do, plan something exciting to look forward to it, and breathe, you will get there.  

 

[Dominic828 9]

6 hours ago, itsgia said:

We allocated around 1.5yrs to 2yrs for this process. There's no rigid answer for "how long does this whole process gonna take", if you are lucky (and have a simple case with no redflags or whatsoever idk), your case probably will move faster than others but generally speaking, from what I have seen at the "popular" tracking website, they have around 2.5k ~ 3k cases approval flow per month since earlier this year (last year was very efficient but hell with new policy, reduced workforce, I am glad they still going at a steady rate lol). Also the timeline is very variable and heavily depending on things like are they gonna ask for RFE, how long does it take from NVC to your Consulate, wait time to setup interview, and so on...  

 

 

For example, in Canada, Montreal is the only place that do K1 visa which could create a huge back logs so yeah, it is hard to predict, no certain answers and the only thing you can do is leave it there and checking-in regularly. It is a lengthy process (and stressful as well) but checking-in everyday will just gonna make it feel so long. So find something to do, plan something exciting to look forward to it, and breathe, you will get there.  

 

Thank you so much for responding and the advice. I appreciate it so much 🙏 

[AgandSa 0]

hello everyone, i did file i129f on november 2024, got approved on april 30 2025, got my aproval notice now waiting on DOS/NVC to send me my case number that i can use to log on thier website.

i know there is delays, reason i said that because it says that on one of them visa trackers i used to estimate my wait.

should i just chill and wait or should i call the nvc or do the online inquiry or whats next?

[horsea 2]

On 6/2/2025 at 1:22 PM, AgandSa said:

hello everyone, i did file i129f on november 2024, got approved on april 30 2025, got my aproval notice now waiting on DOS/NVC to send me my case number that i can use to log on thier website.

i know there is delays, reason i said that because it says that on one of them visa trackers i used to estimate my wait.

should i just chill and wait or should i call the nvc or do the online inquiry or whats next?

 

I think you might have better luck finding a more relevant topic (or creating one). My understanding, however, is that the case is sent to the National Visa Center (NVC) after form I-129F is approved, and your case will receive a number once the NVC processes it. The transfer to the NVC, as I understand it, can take several weeks.