Number of cases processed hit new high!

[GinoNiña 177]

1 hour ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

That is so true people get so worked up over there! My NOA1 is Feb 7th and I just saw a Feb 8th NOA1 get their NOA2 lol... 

 

1 hour ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

That is so true people get so worked up over there! My NOA1 is Feb 7th and I just saw a Feb 8th NOA1 get their NOA2 lol... 

this is the reason why sometimes I don’t look at the script. You get disappointed if you see people getting approved who filed later than you. As of now, nobody has yet to find out on why they skip around and not make in sequential order. 

but at the same time I want to look at the script (thanks to all the effort), to see the numbers coming down. This result gives us both happiness and anxiety. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Fe.Ta 857]

9 minutes ago, GinoNiña said:

 

this is the reason why sometimes I don’t look at the script. You get disappointed if you see people getting approved who filed later than you. As of now, nobody has yet to find out on why they skip around and not make in sequential order. 

but at the same time I want to look at the script (thanks to all the effort), to see the numbers coming down. This result gives us both happiness and anxiety. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We hear you!  BTW, it does not get any better as you continue the journey.  LOL

We are at the ROC level and we see this all the time.  While USCIS advocates "first comes, first served", that is not the case.  The have no pattern, logic, and they do not act the same across the board between officers, service centers, and field offices.  *SIGH*

I still struggle with this now.

[wav_m 84]

1 hour ago, Fe.Ta said:

We hear you!  BTW, it does not get any better as you continue the journey.  LOL

We are at the ROC level and we see this all the time.  While USCIS advocates "first comes, first served", that is not the case.  The have no pattern, logic, and they do not act the same across the board between officers, service centers, and field offices.  *SIGH*

I still struggle with this now.

I am so apprehensive about what comes after this stage – like, at least at this point in the journey we have dedicated data-gathering projects, you know? There's a degree of insight, even if it's limited and imperfect. I've seen how long wait times are at the field office we'll probably be using for AoS/RoC (San Francisco) and it fills me with anxiety. Sending you strength.

[Fe.Ta 857]

2 hours ago, wav_m said:

I am so apprehensive about what comes after this stage – like, at least at this point in the journey we have dedicated data-gathering projects, you know? There's a degree of insight, even if it's limited and imperfect. I've seen how long wait times are at the field office we'll probably be using for AoS/RoC (San Francisco) and it fills me with anxiety. Sending you strength.

Thank you!

Take it one stage at a time.  Focus on K1 first.  Then, once approved, you can take a look at what needs to happen for AOS as soon as your S.O. gets to the USA.  After that, enjoy freedom for about a year and a half, just gather documents in the meantime, and focus on ROC then.

For AOS/ROC, your field office is where you get the interview, but that is not the same as the service center.

 

For example, when we did our AOS, it went to the Missouri Service Center (MSC).  Once it was ready to be scheduled for an interview, it was sent to our field office (Orlando, FL).  Had Missouri decided to just approve it without an interview, we would have gotten the approval from the service center, which has a different processing time than the Orlando, FL field office.  The same thing with our ROC.  We are currently at the Potomac Service Center (this is in Virginia and it is the worse one out of all of them).  If they decide to interview us again, then our case would go to the Orlando, FL field office.  But, the processing time is based on Potomac first, then (when it is transferred) it will depend on the field office.

I hope that makes sense.

[Cheesehead22 86]

Does anybody have a way to see the breakdown of what case numbers they are working on? 

 

I see it on WhatsApp groups but not here

[AndiB 661]

4 minutes ago, Cheesehead22 said:

Does anybody have a way to see the breakdown of what case numbers they are working on? 

 

I see it on WhatsApp groups but not here

As in which get updated everyday?

 

Else you can tell by what months they're working on. It varies by day within those months so case numbers really don't tell you anything

[meladee 160]

35 minutes ago, Cheesehead22 said:

Does anybody have a way to see the breakdown of what case numbers they are working on? 

 

I see it on WhatsApp groups but not here

Case numbers for cases that are closed each day can be found on the Lawfully dashboard, but this doesn't capture any RFE activity.

[wav_m 84]

2 hours ago, Fe.Ta said:

Thank you!

Take it one stage at a time.  Focus on K1 first.  Then, once approved, you can take a look at what needs to happen for AOS as soon as your S.O. gets to the USA.  After that, enjoy freedom for about a year and a half, just gather documents in the meantime, and focus on ROC then.

For AOS/ROC, your field office is where you get the interview, but that is not the same as the service center.

 

For example, when we did our AOS, it went to the Missouri Service Center (MSC).  Once it was ready to be scheduled for an interview, it was sent to our field office (Orlando, FL).  Had Missouri decided to just approve it without an interview, we would have gotten the approval from the service center, which has a different processing time than the Orlando, FL field office.  The same thing with our ROC.  We are currently at the Potomac Service Center (this is in Virginia and it is the worse one out of all of them).  If they decide to interview us again, then our case would go to the Orlando, FL field office.  But, the processing time is based on Potomac first, then (when it is transferred) it will depend on the field office.

I hope that makes sense.

Thank you for this – it does make sense, and it's extremely useful to have this insight into how things happen further down the road. You are also totally right that I need to breathe and focus on what's in front of me! The joy of Visajourney is that so many people have already done everything I'm doing; there's such a lot of wisdom here and it is a comfort.

[FromMexico W/Love 244]

@Oballak is there a way to run analysis for "Estimated Wait Times" based on 50%, 75%, and 100% of cases completed? i.e. your estimated wait time if you're case is processed within the first 50% of cases, and then 75% and 100%? Right now we are tracking our estimated wait times when 100% of the month is completed, and we can see that is not how USCIS is operating. I know there is difficulty in running this analysis because of accounting for ghost cases and USCIS never getting to 100%.  March 2022 filers are showing as waiting ~2 more months from today for their NOA2, when that won't be the reality for the majority of March 2022 filers. 

 

Anyone else have any thoughts on updates or improvements that we can make to the spreadsheet? 

[AndiB 661]

13 minutes ago, FromMexico W/Love said:

@Oballak is there a way to run analysis for "Estimated Wait Times" based on 50%, 75%, and 100% of cases completed? i.e. your estimated wait time if you're case is processed within the first 50% of cases, and then 75% and 100%? Right now we are tracking our estimated wait times when 100% of the month is completed, and we can see that is not how USCIS is operating. I know there is difficulty in running this analysis because of accounting for ghost cases and USCIS never getting to 100%.  March 2022 filers are showing as waiting ~2 more months from today for their NOA2, when that won't be the reality for the majority of March 2022 filers. 

 

Anyone else have any thoughts on updates or improvements that we can make to the spreadsheet? 

They have the numbers on the left, you can calculate it yourself. Generally removing 2 months at the moment seems to be a decent guess for ~50%/when they'll start the next

[Bh_sarah 942]

I think it was like this before, right? With 50%, 75% etc. Now it's basically the worst scenario ever so it's a safer estimate.
I would also say that the probability of you being left behind (I mean inside the last 50% to be touched since it's proving more accurate than the 20% we previously discussed) is higher when your NOA1 date is by the end of the month. At least that's what I am seeing with February – it's easier to see that because it has 4 weeks only. Most of the cases left behind are from the last 2 weeks, while the cases filed on the first two weeks have a higher percentage of cases completed.

Another sign that this is true to me is that, now that they moved on to March and truly slowed down with February, most Feb cases being approved now are on the last 2 weeks, not the first 2 weeks. I could also be biased with just my month in this statement, so take it with a grain of salt haha hope it makes sense too, I feel like I'm blabbing.

[Ok-Mix 117]

1 minute ago, Bh_sarah said:

I think it was like this before, right? With 50%, 75% etc. Now it's basically the worst scenario ever so it's a safer estimate.
I would also say that the probability of you being left behind (I mean inside the last 50% to be touched since it's proving more accurate than the 20% we previously discussed) is higher when your NOA1 date is by the end of the month. At least that's what I am seeing with February – it's easier to see that because it has 4 weeks only. Most of the cases left behind are from the last 2 weeks, while the cases filed on the first two weeks have a higher percentage of cases completed.

That's how I view the spreadsheet too, wait time for my month I interpret it as worst case scenario.  Especially, like you mentioned, I am at the very end of my month so I figure the month after me will start getting processed before my own case...

[AndiB 661]

I'm a lil resentful to my bf cause we were meant to file first week of oct but he did no research and didn't have any paperwork ready. He had DUIs + divorce so had to get all that and we only filed end of month now I worry 😭

 

Maybe it'll be all fine but if he'd just done his hw I'd feel better

[Bh_sarah 942]

5 minutes ago, AndiB said:

I'm a lil resentful to my bf cause we were meant to file first week of oct but he did no research and didn't have any paperwork ready. He had DUIs + divorce so had to get all that and we only filed end of month now I worry 😭

 

Maybe it'll be all fine but if he'd just done his hw I'd feel better

Oh don't get too caught up on this too. We only discover those details later and when we can't change anything, unfortunately. I can see the difference between first and last half, but at the end there are people from the first half of February being left behind too. It's all a gamble and we can all be caught up in the last 50%. I also thought of blaming the lawyers since we were supposed to send it 1 week before it was sent but they took long to confirm it, but honestly it comes down to luck and we're all at mercy of a random bureaucratic process, unfortunately.

It will be fine. The increase in speed also helps us. I was expecting them to start February around now, so that would mean I would know I was left behind only in May. And I'm one month earlier than my estimate! Yayyyy I guess hahah

[AndiB 661]

1 minute ago, Bh_sarah said:

Oh don't get too caught up on this too. We only discover those details later and when we can't change anything, unfortunately. I can see the difference between first and last half, but at the end there are people from the first half of February being left behind too. It's all a gamble and we can all be caught up in the last 50%. I also thought of blaming the lawyers since we were supposed to send it 1 week before it was sent but they took long to confirm it, but honestly it comes down to luck and we're all at mercy of a random bureaucratic process, unfortunately.

It will be fine. The increase in speed also helps us. I was expecting them to start February around now, so that would mean I would know I was left behind only in May. And I'm one month earlier than my estimate! Yayyyy I guess hahah

100% and we filed earlier than he wanted because I was freaking out about wait times increasing. We were originally looking at 2yrs for NOA2 and as you say it's a gamble, we could get an 'early' approval but yh illogical side is blaming him right now