Is a case number less than 55k guaranteed interview in DV visa?

[Kenyan Couple 21]

A family member has won the visa. Their number is below 55,000-- at around 49000. Is this number a guarantee they will be invited to an interview should they follow the process/submit the necessary documents? I know there's usually a cap on the numbers.

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

Nothing is guaranteed. And at this stage we do not even know specifics of the numbers of selectees per region etc. 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2022 by SusieQQQ

[Kenyan Couple 21]

18 minutes ago, SusieQQQ said:

Nothing is guaranteed. And at this stage we do not even know specifics of the numbers of selectees per region etc. 

 

 

Thanks for the response.

[JeanneAdil 6,191]

if he was chosen by the entry,  immediately the person needs to:

 

Complete form DS-260 Online Immigrant Visa Application. To access DS-260, you will need to enter your DV visa case number. A separate form is required for each visa applicant. After submitting Form DS-260 online, you must print the confirmation page and bring it to your interview.

 

the person should get started on this form and gathering education and/or work experience proof(s) as the following is stated 

 

 

All DV-2022 diversity visa program applicants must be found eligible for, and obtain, their visa or adjust status by the end of fiscal year 2022 (September 30, ...

• and all this takes times so start ASAP  -as soon as possible

   

  guaranteed  ? no  the person needs to submit evidence now that they qualify 

Edited May 7, 2022 by JeanneAdil

[Kenyan Couple 21]

22 minutes ago, JeanneAdil said:

if he was chosen by the entry,  immediately the person needs to:

 

Complete form DS-260 Online Immigrant Visa Application. To access DS-260, you will need to enter your DV visa case number. A separate form is required for each visa applicant. After submitting Form DS-260 online, you must print the confirmation page and bring it to your interview.

 

the person should get started on this form and gathering education and/or work experience proof(s) as the following is stated 

 

 

All DV-2022 diversity visa program applicants must be found eligible for, and obtain, their visa or adjust status by the end of fiscal year 2022 (September 30, ...

• and all this takes times so start ASAP  -as soon as possible

   

  guaranteed  ? no  the person needs to submit evidence now that they qualify 

noted

[JeanneAdil 6,191]

not eveyone that is chosen to apply for the visa ,  gets one

 

works like this

they draw more than the 55,000 (its up to that # this year)  they draw 125,000 possible winners 

1st of those to fill out and submit the Ds 260,  and have an interview with valid documents ,   get the green card  

 

As roughly 125,000 names are drawn, with only 55,000 eligible to actually receive a green card, everyone whose name is drawn is put on a waiting list and given a number.13

 

 If your waiting list number is high, and there are 50,000 people ahead of you who have also successfully completed their paperwork, you won’t get a chance to apply, let alone receive a green card.

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

24 minutes ago, JeanneAdil said:

not eveyone that is chosen to apply for the visa ,  gets one

 

works like this

they draw more than the 55,000 (its up to that # this year)  they draw 125,000 possible winners 

1st of those to fill out and submit the Ds 260,  and have an interview with valid documents ,   get the green card  

 

As roughly 125,000 names are drawn, with only 55,000 eligible to actually receive a green card, everyone whose name is drawn is put on a waiting list and given a number.13

 

 If your waiting list number is high, and there are 50,000 people ahead of you who have also successfully completed their paperwork, you won’t get a chance to apply, let alone receive a green card.

Not sure what you are quoting but it’s not official. The number of people chosen changes year to year. Some years it is as low as in the 80000’s and others around 120k. 
 

There is no huge rush for OP’s friend to submit a DS260. The first interviews are only in October and with a number around AF49k will only interview 2023 sometime. OP, suggest your friends familiarize  themselves with britsimonsays website which has lots of useful information.  Your friend will also have a website link in their selection letter, they should ensure they follow those links to see exactly what documents they will need for a possible interview.

 

 

Edited May 8, 2022 by SusieQQQ

[JeanneAdil 6,191]

14 hours ago, SusieQQQ said:

Not sure what you are quoting but it’s not official. The number of people chosen changes year to year. Some years it is as low as in the 80000’s and others around 120k. 
 

There is no huge rush for OP’s friend to submit a DS260. The first interviews are only in October and with a number around AF49k will only interview 2023 sometime. OP, suggest your friends familiarize  themselves with britsimonsays website which has lots of useful information.  Your friend will also have a website link in their selection letter, they should ensure they follow those links to see exactly what documents they will need for a possible interview.

 

 

Boundless 

 

The U.S. Department of State has announced the results of the 2022 Diversity Visa lottery program.

The program, also known as the green card lottery, allows 55,000 randomly selected people to obtain permanent residency in the United States

[Se&Se 8]

How do u determine if your number is low or not?

Edited May 8, 2022 by Se&Se

[SusieQQQ 11,584]

53 minutes ago, Se&Se said:

How do u determine if your number is low or not?

It’s hard to tell properly at this stage, unless it’s really low vs history. You need to know the total number of selectees plus selectees per region (this info will be released as a section of an upcoming visa bulletin, probably the July but maybe the august one). Then, all the case numbers are not totally consecutive as there are “holes” - selectees who have been immediately disqualified for breaking an entry rule (example multiple entries). There are some volunteer citizens who diligently plow through the CEAC data when it’s available (from Jan each calendar year) to figure out what the holes are  as well as what the highest number per region is, and once all the info is there you can get an idea of how high a number you have, then you can make a properly educated guess.

a more rough guess is to look at past visa bulletins and see whether or not they went current for everyone by fiscal year end or whether there was still a cut off and if so what it was, but you also need to look at that in the context of selectees. And then the past couple years VB data. have been totally messed up  by covid, trump ban on DV etc.

 For 80k ish selectees- generally you can say there is enough natural attrition that everyone who wants a visa will get one. For 120k ish it is less certain,  

[Kenyan Couple 21]

3 hours ago, SusieQQQ said:

It’s hard to tell properly at this stage, unless it’s really low vs history. You need to know the total number of selectees plus selectees per region (this info will be released as a section of an upcoming visa bulletin, probably the July but maybe the august one). Then, all the case numbers are not totally consecutive as there are “holes” - selectees who have been immediately disqualified for breaking an entry rule (example multiple entries). There are some volunteer citizens who diligently plow through the CEAC data when it’s available (from Jan each calendar year) to figure out what the holes are  as well as what the highest number per region is, and once all the info is there you can get an idea of how high a number you have, then you can make a properly educated guess.

a more rough guess is to look at past visa bulletins and see whether or not they went current for everyone by fiscal year end or whether there was still a cut off and if so what it was, but you also need to look at that in the context of selectees. And then the past couple years VB data. have been totally messed up  by covid, trump ban on DV etc.

 For 80k ish selectees- generally you can say there is enough natural attrition that everyone who wants a visa will get one. For 120k ish it is less certain,  

Perfect. Thanks. Let's then hope for 80k ish selectees. I really hope they get it as I just became a PR and would be thrilled to have family around.