How reliable are the estimated times on Visa Journey?

[TampaRishon 38]

Hey Everyone, 

So my NOA 1 is from July 9th, 2020, I believe. My timeline is saying my I-130 should be “approved” (Lord willing) by December 26. It went from April 2021 to December 2020. The date keeps getting less and less with every other day. 
The USCIS website also says that Nebraska processing times went from 9-11 months, when I filed, to 6-8 months in the last two months. 
 

VisaJourney timeline thing is saying I could hear something by the end of the year. Are they normally accurate? Give or take a few weeks? I am watching it like a hawk and just want to know if I’m hoping for nothing and wasting my time? Or if it’s a pretty good indication? Obviously, it’s a computer, I just was curious how all of you faired with your “estimated” dates. 
 

Thanks in advance for any info 🙃

[payxibka 10,044]

7 minutes ago, TampaRishon said:

Hey Everyone, 

So my NOA 1 is from July 9th, 2020, I believe. My timeline is saying my I-130 should be “approved” (Lord willing) by December 26. It went from April 2021 to December 2020. The date keeps getting less and less with every other day. 
The USCIS website also says that Nebraska processing times went from 9-11 months, when I filed, to 6-8 months in the last two months. 
 

VisaJourney timeline thing is saying I could hear something by the end of the year. Are they normally accurate? Give or take a few weeks? I am watching it like a hawk and just want to know if I’m hoping for nothing and wasting my time? Or if it’s a pretty good indication? Obviously, it’s a computer, I just was curious how all of you faired with your “estimated” dates. 
 

Thanks in advance for any info 🙃

Only as accurate as data inputted by the membership.  Don't get your hopes up high as timelines change frequently and without reason. At best, use it as a Guage.  Your best is to find others with similar filing dates and monitor them

[Boiler 43,871]

I am not sure they account for COVID?

[SteveInBostonI130 3,330]

Timelines have been decreasing for IR1/CR1 recently, most likely due to Covid and the presidential proclamations.  Other visa categories are low priority, and according to USCIS there have been less applicants.

 

EDIT:  Please note that USCIS is just the first step.  Next is NVC, which takes 2-4 months on average.  Then it is the embassy stage, which takes a while if your particular embassy is not open.

Edited October 8, 2020 by SteveInBostonI130
Added information

[TampaRishon 38]

4 minutes ago, SteveInBostonI130 said:

Timelines have been decreasing for IR1/CR1 recently, most likely due to Covid and the presidential proclamations.  Other visa categories are low priority, and according to USCIS there have been less applicants.

 

EDIT:  Please note that USCIS is just the first step.  Next is NVC, which takes 2-4 months on average.  Then it is the embassy stage, which takes a while if your particular embassy is not open.

Yeah! Thanks for adding that. I do know there are two more steps. I just have some personal (at home) goals I wanted to accomplish and was kind of attempting to get them done before the I-130 is accepted so I have free time to work on the NVC. I also wanted to make sure I wasn’t hoping on something that is normally far from accurate 🙃😁, but it makes sense they’ll be focusing more on the marriage visas now since America isn’t dealing with the other ones at this time. 
Our embassy is still shutdown so I know we ain’t going anywhere too fast 🙄😂

[Ryan H 3,798]

Moved from IR-1/CR-1 Progress Reports to Site-Related Discussion.