The Speed of Change

[Dashinka 25,881]

Interesting perspective.  Working in an industry where technology is ever evolving, this is quite true.  I am not sure I believe all of these predictions will come to pass, however, I am sure many of them are on the horizon.

 

(Summary of the information, source is linked below).

 

The Speed of Change By Udo Gollub at Messe Berlin, Germany

Speed Of Change

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen to many industries in the next decade. No one foresaw that by 2001 we'd never take pictures on paper film again? Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975.
The first ones only had 10,000 pixels.  It was years, before technology made it mainstream.  This will also happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous, electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution and the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in 5-10 years. Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world.  Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, yet they own no properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world.  This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

Lawyers: In the U.S., jobs are becoming scarce for young lawyers. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.  So if you study law, recognize that there will be 90% less lawyers in the future, with only specialists remaining. IBM Watson already helps nurses diagnose cancer with 4 time more accurately than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that recognizes faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous Cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear publicly. Around 2020, the auto industry will start to be disrupted. You won't own a car anymore.  You'll call a car with your phone and it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. No need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while traveling. The next generation won't need a driver's license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we'll need far less cars for that. We can transform former parking space into parks.  The 1.2 million people who die each year in car accidents worldwide, will be reduced. We now have one accident every 100,000 km.  Autonomous driving will drop that to one accident in 10 million km.  We'll save a million lives each year.  Many auto companies will go bankrupt.
While traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach by building a better car, tech companies like Tesla, Apple and Google take the revolutionary approach and build computers on wheels.  Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are terrified of Tesla.

Insurance Companies:  Because of fewer accidents, insurance will become 100x cheaper. Because fewer people will own cars, the insurance business model will disappear.

Real Estate: If you can work while you commute, people can move further away to live in a more comfortable neighborhood.

Electric Cars: will become mainstream by 2020. Cities will be less noisy, because most cars will be electric.

Electricity: will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an upward curve for 30 years, but we're only beginning to see the impact. Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil fuels. The price for solar will drop so much that all coal companies will be out of business by 2025.  Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter. We have adequate water in most places, but drinking water is scarce in some areas. If we can have as much clean water as we need, it will be a fraction of the current cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. Companies will build a medical device, like the "Tricorder" from Star Trek, that works with your phone. It scans your retina, your blood sample and you breathe into it. It then analyses 54 bio markers that identify nearly any disease.  It will be so cheap, that within a few years most people on this planet will have access to first-class medicine.

3D Printing: The price of the cheapest 3-D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. At the same time, it became 100 times faster.  All major shoe companies are using 3-D to print shoes.  Spare airplane parts are already printed in 3-D at remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that reduces the need for the large amount of spare parts used in the past. At the end of this year, new smartphones will have 3-D scanning possibilities. Then you can scan your feet and print your perfect shoe. In China, they 3-D printed a complete 6-story office building.  By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3-D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche, ask yourself: "Will we have that in the future?" If the answer is yes, ask yourself, “How can I make this happen sooner?” If it doesn't work with your phone, forget it.
And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st Century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be new jobs, but it's unclear if there will be enough new jobs created by then.

Truth or Lies: There's an app called "moodies" which can tell us the mood we're in.
By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by our facial expressions if we're lying. During political debates where it's displayed, we can tell if they're telling the truth or a lie.

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it's 80 years. By 2036, longevity will increase a 12 months per year. So we may all live more than a 100 years.

Education: The cheapest smartphones cost about $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smartphone. This means, everyone will have access to world-class education.

 

http://www.equitas-capital.com/2016/research/welcome-to-the-exponential-age-the-new-industrial-revolution/

Edited January 22, 2017 by Bill & Katya

[TBoneTX 47,520]

Very interesting.

[Daisy.Chain 317]

Being (potentially) technologically possible is far from being probable, especially for large numbers of people. This is definitely specific to wealthier countries. Think of what we can do today, get the number of people who have little to no access to things the things the US had 100 years ago.

[Dakine10 5,452]

On 1/22/2017 at 1:26 PM, Bill & Katya said:

Truth or Lies: There's an app called "moodies" which can tell us the mood we're in.
By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by our facial expressions if we're lying. During political debates where it's displayed, we can tell if they're telling the truth or a lie.
 

 

    It didn't take long to tell who was lying in this past election. The answer was everyone, although to varying degree's.  The bigger question by 2020 is, will anyone care? If there's no consequences for lying politicians, and if people just believe the things they want to believe, there's little point in having a truth detector. 

[elmcitymaven 9,712]

Quote

Lawyers: In the U.S., jobs are becoming scarce for young lawyers. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.  So if you study law, recognize that there will be 90% less lawyers in the future, with only specialists remaining.

Good luck with that one in front of a judge when you're dealing with a contract dispute that isn't "basic stuff" (most of it isn't -- dare I say even 90%, or more). Some of the legal advice (which technically isn't legal advice -- it's help for people to DIY) available online is terrible, out of date, not tailored for specific yet not complicated circumstances, and on and on. Law isn't plug and play -- it's a feature, not a bug.

 

You know which lawyers computers are putting out of business currently? Those doing document review. Computers are better at this.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

18 hours ago, Dakine10 said:

 

    It didn't take long to tell who was lying in this past election. The answer was everyone, although to varying degree's.  The bigger question by 2020 is, will anyone care? If there's no consequences for lying politicians, and if people just believe the things they want to believe, there's little point in having a truth detector. 

Moved it to Trump in 4 posts. Thats got to be a record

[Dakine10 5,452]

1 minute ago, Nature Boy Flair said:

Moved it to Trump in 4 posts. Thats got to be a record

  Who said Trump? Wasn't me. FACT is, it looks like it took you 6 posts. 

 

   All I said was 'lying'. Now, I do understand why that made you think of Trump, but I didn't mention any names. In fact (that word again), I said everyone was lying.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

6 minutes ago, Dakine10 said:

  Who said Trump? Wasn't me. FACT is, it looks like it took you 6 posts. 

 

   All I said was 'lying'. Now, I do understand why that made you think of Trump, but I didn't mention any names. In fact (that word again), I said everyone was lying.

What you did would be like me talking about a big purple dinosaur that sings a  song about I love you, then trying to back out of it by saying I never said Barney 

[Dakine10 5,452]

1 minute ago, Nature Boy Flair said:

What you did would be like me talking about a big purple dinosaur that sings a  song about I love you, then trying to back out of it by saying I never said Barney 

 

    You're wrong. I said 'everyone lied' and it's plain to see. Just scroll up and read.  Your interpretation of what I said is on you, not me.

 

    Whether you can admit you are wrong or not doesn't matter, but please don't dig yourself in any deeper.

[The Nature Boy 7,659]

4 minutes ago, Dakine10 said:

 

    You're wrong. I said 'everyone lied' and it's plain to see. Just scroll up and read.  Your interpretation of what I said is on you, not me.

 

    Whether you can admit you are wrong or not doesn't matter, but please don't dig yourself in any deeper.

####### you did say everyone. If was in the MDL I would just change the subject, divert and drive on

 

But since I am the MOR and an Alpha Male. You did say everyone but the likelyhood to mis read it , they way you wrote it was elevated 

[Dakine10 5,452]

1 hour ago, Nature Boy Flair said:

####### you did say everyone. If was in the MDL I would just change the subject, divert and drive on

 

But since I am the MOR and an Alpha Male. You did say everyone but the likelyhood to mis read it , they way you wrote it was elevated 

 

   As an alternative fact, let me suggest that was completely unintentional.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

On 1/24/2017 at 5:23 PM, elmcitymaven said:

Good luck with that one in front of a judge when you're dealing with a contract dispute that isn't "basic stuff" (most of it isn't -- dare I say even 90%, or more). Some of the legal advice (which technically isn't legal advice -- it's help for people to DIY) available online is terrible, out of date, not tailored for specific yet not complicated circumstances, and on and on. Law isn't plug and play -- it's a feature, not a bug.

 

You know which lawyers computers are putting out of business currently? Those doing document review. Computers are better at this.

IDK.  I prepared a 40+ page divorce decree without a lawyer's help, filed for a divorce, and got it approved in less than 30 days.  All without a lawyer's help.  The only part I needed a lawyer for was to actually send me back the completed, filed documents, because I wasn't able to remain in town for the almost 30 days it took for the court to finalize the deal.  So technically, it wasn't lawyer-free, in that a lawyer presented it to the court, and the same lawyer mailed it to me when it was finished.  But that was it.  

[smilesammich 10,727]

6 minutes ago, IDWAF said:

IDK.  I prepared a 40+ page divorce decree without a lawyer's help, filed for a divorce, and got it approved in less than 30 days.  All without a lawyer's help.  The only part I needed a lawyer for was to actually send me back the completed, filed documents, because I wasn't able to remain in town for the almost 30 days it took for the court to finalize the deal.  So technically, it wasn't lawyer-free, in that a lawyer presented it to the court, and the same lawyer mailed it to me when it was finished.  But that was it.  

contradictions like this should instantly delete a post. poof magic, nothing happened.

[Voice of Reason 10,298]

I'm sorry, I forgot the reading comprehension skills of some here are not the same as others.

 

I prepared the entire packet of papers being filed, at home, on my own.  No lawyer needed.  Due to time constraints, I had a lawyer turn in to the court and return to me the completed documents.  (Had there been any problems with my submitted decree, I am sure I would have had to pay the lawyer to mediate for me; as it stands, there were none, due to my thoroughness in preparation).  Had I been able to remain, I could have filed the motion on my own behalf.  Had I known a court clerk, I probably could have had him/her submit and return the documents to me.

[smilesammich 10,727]

4 minutes ago, IDWAF said:

I'm sorry, I forgot the reading comprehension skills of some here are not the same as others.

 

I prepared the entire packet of papers being filed, at home, on my own.  No lawyer needed.  Due to time constraints, I had a lawyer turn in to the court and return to me the completed documents.  (Had there been any problems with my submitted decree, I am sure I would have had to pay the lawyer to mediate for me; as it stands, there were none, due to my thoroughness in preparation).  Had I been able to remain, I could have filed the motion on my own behalf.  Had I known a court clerk, I probably could have had him/her submit and return the documents to me.

so, what you're saying is..you used a lawyer.