timelines really off?

[dhufstader 0]

has any one else noticed drastic jumps in their timeline estimate? mine keeps drastically changing and is now showing that it should have been completed by now when it originally showed late January.

I realize it's only a guesstimate, but this seems way off

[Tisa 9]

I noticed the same thing! At first it gave me hope but I really don't think that we should get our hopes up to much. Texas is still so slow I wish they would transfer more petitions to Cali

[kimmygeee 7]

I know it's off, but I can't help but be hopeful that it will be approved in that time period hahaha

[Pitaya 2,577]

One possible contributing factor for the wide variations and fluctuations in timelines maybe the lack of data points, due to the lack of VJ members entering in their data. The more data points, the more the timelines have statistical significance.

YMMV.

Good luck on your immigration journey.

Edited November 1, 2014 by A&B

[autoxray 2]

Yes, our timeline dropped from early to mid February at the beginning of October to sometime in November as of today. Don,t know if this is accurate, but I keep going back to that old adage "if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is". However there are some couples who recently got their NOA2 in 45 days, so maybe there is some truth to these estimated timelines.

If you go onto the USCIS website the last estimate for the TSC IS 5.9 months. That was last updated on Aug. 31st. It will be interesting to see what they say on their next update whenever that is.

Alan

[Ryan H 3,812]

Moved from K1 Process & Procedures to Site-Related Discussion; topic is about the VJ Timeline feature and not the visa process itself.

[wbeem 568]

As well as those not correctly completing their timelines, many of the TSC filers who were transferred to California have not changed the date in their timelines. This means that there have been countless 'TSC' approvals, which were in fact approved at CSC. This is one of the main reasons for the drastic changes. Having monitored the TSC processing times for Visa Journey members over the last week on a daily basis, it is clear that between 0 and 3 of the most 15 recent approvals are actually approved at TSC. This will skew the estimates for both service centers, and it has.

[sma1488 155]

One possible contributing factor for the wide variations and fluctuations in timelines maybe the lack of data points, due to the lack of VJ members entering in their data. The more data points, the more the timelines have statistical significance.

YMMV.

Good luck on your immigration journey.

It's not so much the lack of data points as it is the erroneous nature of timelines created by users who are really at CSC but choose TSC on the timeline. This artificially shortens the wait time at TSC, which leads to NOA2 estimates that are much sooner than reality.

[Pitaya 2,577]

It's not so much the lack of data points as it is the erroneous nature of timelines created by users who are really at CSC but choose TSC on the timeline. This artificially shortens the wait time at TSC, which leads to NOA2 estimates that are much sooner than reality.

End result is the same, eh?

[autoxray 2]

Ok. Just got our NOA2 yesterday after the timeline went from 11/25 to 12/11 over the past few days. What a surprise. Good luck to all of you. There is light at the end of the tunnel.