Stock market on Monday (PREDICTIONS)

[Ban Hammer 12,841]

Considering the reason for the drop in oil prices, I'm hesitant to celebrate that drop.

england is celebrating, molotov cocktails are now cheaper to make.

[Bad_Daddy 2,209]

england is celebrating, molotov cocktails are now cheaper to make.

[luckytxn 2,263]

england is celebrating, molotov cocktails are now cheaper to make.

My laugh for the day.

[luckytxn 2,263]

Market taking another kick in the ballz.

[scandal 951]

VIX at 43 today, up 22%.

And in fixed income, the entire yield curve is still partying like never before:

the 10-year yield fell to 2.09% Wednesday afternoon, trading near its record low close of 2.06% last seen in December 2008.

A $24 billion auction of 10-year notes also drew solid demand, even at a 2.14% yield -- the lowest 10-year yield at auction, ever on record.

In uncertain times, investors typically flee risky assets such as stocks and pile into perceived safe havens, which -- even after the S&P downgrade -- include U.S. Treasuries.

"We don't think investors care much whether U.S. debt is rated AAA or AA+," Ron Muhlenkamp, president and portfolio manager of the Muhlenkamp Fund, said in a report to investors. "The U.S. Treasury market is still the largest and deepest market in the world, and the likelihood of getting the promised payments remains very high."

As to equities, why worry with this kind of eye popping volatility? Do you know what option prices are doing in vol scenarios like this?

High Frequency Traders Win in Market Bloodbath

Among the winners in the downdraft lately are high-frequency traders, which trade stocks and other securities at lightning speeds.

In recent days, the high-frequency operation at Tradeworx Inc., a Red Bank, N.J. firm, juggled its largest daily volumes since its 2009 launch, resulting in some of its most profitable days on record, according to its founder, Manoj Narang.

The reason: High-speed firms’ profits are highly correlated with increased volatility in the market. The more stock are rising and falling, the better they are able to make profits on the difference between buy and sell prices. A gauge of volatility, the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, rose more than 100% from Aug. 1 to Aug. 8.

In 2008, high-frequency firms posted massive profits amid the burst in trading action and wild market swings. But their fortunes have dipped of late. For much of the year, high-speed firms struggled due to a sharp drop in volatility and declining volumes as institutional investors and day traders pulled back from the market. Several firms closed their doors due to the tough environment as well as increasing competition and tighter regulations of the industry.

The dramatic swings in prices in early August have hurt other sophisticated outfits that place long and short bets on stocks based on metrics such as price-to-earnings ratios, traders say.

Because many of these firms use borrowed money, or leverage, to amplify their returns, bursts of volatility can magnify their losses, resulting in aggressive selling and short covering. Unlike high-frequency firms, long-short firms profit in steady, low-volatility markets, like that seen earlier in the year.

[mawilson 2,133]

Another lovely day... almost 500 points down.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

The Feds are flexing their flabby muscles, and investigating S&P: Another cute move by Obama that is backfiring.

[scandal 951]

Another lovely day... almost 500 points down.

Equities:

Broader markets closed down 4-5%. Treasuries rallied.

Bonds:

Treasury Yields Hit Half Century Low

By Niamh Sweeney 08/18/11 - 04:30 PM EDT

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasuries dipped below 2% for the first time in 60 years, as investors dumped equities on news of worse-than-expected manufacturing and jobs data.

The 10-year fell 19 basis points to yield 1.97% Thursday before rebounding to 2.09%. The last time yield hit a level below two percent was in April of 1950

VIX:

VIX was up 35% to 42.67. Options traders are having a field day with this vol.

[mawilson 2,133]

Treasuries rallied.

Soon we'll be refinancing at 3 percent.

[I AM NOT THAT GUY 5,715]

Soon we'll be refinancing at 3 percent.

What effect will that have on the Reverse Mortgage market? Who thought of that scam for old people to leave even less to their kids? It's going to suck for anybody under fifty now when it come time to retire. Good thing I turn 55 in less than week, before we screw the next generations out of their futures.

[dalegg 143]

Soon we'll be refinancing at 3 percent.

I just refinanced at 3.375% no points So, almost!

[scandal 951]

I just refinanced at 3.375% no points So, almost!

No points/ no fees? Or paying fees? (Application fee, appraisal, credit report, etc.)? If so, how much?

I'm in 15yr/4.0% now and would ratchet down again to 3.5% but only for no points/no fees. My broker wants me to pay the $275 appraisal, and I'm worried about my neighborhood comps......

[Gary and Alla 3,694]

No points/ no fees? Or paying fees? (Application fee, appraisal, credit report, etc.)? If so, how much?

I'm in 15yr/4.0% now and would ratchet down again to 3.5% but only for no points/no fees. My broker wants me to pay the $275 appraisal, and I'm worried about my neighborhood comps......

And pretty soon your home value will drop and you can finance it more like a car loan. Maybe 0% for 60 months! Good news!

Some 3 trillion in wealth has been lost since Obama caused us to get downgraded and more runs out the hole in the bottom every day. Who is going to be left to tax?

[rin and john 71]

No points/ no fees? Or paying fees? (Application fee, appraisal, credit report, etc.)? If so, how much?

I'm in 15yr/4.0% now and would ratchet down again to 3.5% but only for no points/no fees. My broker wants me to pay the $275 appraisal, and I'm worried about my neighborhood comps......

My mortgage broker used zillow.com as a proxy on comps...

[scandal 951]

My mortgage broker used zillow.com as a proxy on comps...

Yeah, I've got a reasonably good idea what my comps would be. Hence my worry .

It would be tight to get to an 80/20 LTV. That's why I prefer him to pay the appraisal fee- no risk to me.

I think I'll wait for now. There's rumors of new initiatives, e.g. to allow homeowners with loans in good standing which are already owned by Fannie/Freddie "transfer" that approved status to a new loan at currently available market rates, without re-appraisal. I'm happy with my current loan. 4% on 15 years with my current balance is fine.