Time Line Accuracy

[Desi_munda 0]

I can see this site has some real cool featurs such as Time line Statistics. But I doubt its' accuracy. I am wondering what about those users who don't update their time line. I meant to say when they get approvals they just disappear, stop loggin to the site, and don't enter any updates about their cases. Obviously that would skew the graph in a negative way.

[GS4EVER 0]

I can see this site has some real cool featurs such as Time line Statistics. But I doubt its' accuracy. I am wondering what about those users who don't update their time line. I meant to say when they get approvals they just disappear, stop loggin to the site, and don't enter any updates about their cases. Obviously that would skew the graph in a negative way.

Do you mean the timeline till visa in hand or till approval? Beause I think the timelines from NOA1 till NOA2 are usually updated although not by everyone, but I would imagine by most VJers.

And of course the timeline on VJ is not going to be 100% accurate but it still gives us a much clearer idea of what's going on than the USCIS website which posts outdated processing times from two months ago!! Go figure

In our other forum, we were talking about how our estimated abjudication dates have passed and still no approval in sight . Of course we realize those are just estimates but one can at least hold on to some estimate as opposed to be lost in limbo, not knowing what the heck is going on at VSC...

Sorry to ramble on, having one of those days and the wait is getting harder by the minute! An approval would be nice, I feel so

[Otto 83]

Admin. (Captn.Ewok) will routinely go through and eliminate data from users who have not logged on in a long time and/or updated their timelines. As it stands now - the numbers are pretty accurate.

[Desi_munda 0]

Thanks for the reply. I guess it makes sense what you wrote. VJ atleast gives us some idea about the time frame. I was talking mainly about from NOA1 to NOA2

[queuedup 1]

The estimates give you a general idea of where you stand from NOA1 to NOA2, based on member updates to their timeline. In my case, the estimates were right on the money.

[Bob and Patricia 0]

The estimates give you a general idea of where you stand from NOA1 to NOA2, based on member updates to their timeline. In my case, the estimates were right on the money.

I'm not sure what has happened in the past few days, but we were estimated to receive NOA2 in the first week of March with a range of 4 days. Then yesterday, (Feb 26th) we suddenly got pushed back to the 1st week of May and the range got expanded to 4 weeks.

Last night in the middle of trying to settle our stress over this 8 week setback, I received an email from USCIS that our petition was approved. It couldn't have come at a better time for Patricia's and my mental health.

Bob

[Y's_habibitk 2]

The estimates give you a general idea of where you stand from NOA1 to NOA2, based on member updates to their timeline. In my case, the estimates were right on the money.

mine too. based on the 129f date, not so much the 130.

The estimates give you a general idea of where you stand from NOA1 to NOA2, based on member updates to their timeline. In my case, the estimates were right on the money.

I'm not sure what has happened in the past few days, but we were estimated to receive NOA2 in the first week of March with a range of 4 days. Then yesterday, (Feb 26th) we suddenly got pushed back to the 1st week of May and the range got expanded to 4 weeks.

Last night in the middle of trying to settle our stress over this 8 week setback, I received an email from USCIS that our petition was approved. It couldn't have come at a better time for Patricia's and my mental health.

Bob

Ours jumped all over the place throughout the 8+ months, but ended up right on target.

Congrats btw

[Desire019 0]

The time line on VJ was right on track for us. We sent our i130 on july 25th when the time line showed they were working on the 25th we got an approval. Within the next 24hrs so i trust this site the admin did a great job creating this forum.

[SteveColo 0]

Although it moved around, my approvals were basically within 7-10 days of my VJ timeline.

[joseph loves wife 0]

I hope mine comes soon this is what mine says,~~~> Based on timeline data, your I130 may be adjudicated between February 5, 2009 and March 18, 2009 > will i have mine soon<

Edited February 28, 2009 by joseph loves wife

[Y's_habibitk 2]

I hope mine comes soon this is what mine says,~~~> Based on timeline data, your I130 may be adjudicated between February 5, 2009 and March 18, 2009 > will i have mine soon<

looks promising joey but what does yur esimated time on the 129f say? thats what the truer gauge is

Edited February 28, 2009 by Lisa wa Yazied

[Armin 0]

Well, I'm not sure about how they calculate the estimated time in VJ but the reason for estimated time to jump all over the place is what we call "out liers".

It needs little bit of statistical knowledge. For example if average time to getting approved is 200 days (and that's the average time for 20 people) now the person number 21, gets approval in 50 days. It will change the estimated time (which is basically the average time +/- standard deviation) significantly. The effect will be lowered by more people adding their time-lines who may fall under the average curve.

Like every sampling and polls, u won't reach 100% accuracy but depending on the number of standard deviation u may cover 95 or even 99% of population.

Hope this helps little bit.

[rebeccajo 14]

The estimates give you a general idea of where you stand from NOA1 to NOA2, based on member updates to their timeline. In my case, the estimates were right on the money.

I'm not sure what has happened in the past few days, but we were estimated to receive NOA2 in the first week of March with a range of 4 days. Then yesterday, (Feb 26th) we suddenly got pushed back to the 1st week of May and the range got expanded to 4 weeks.

Last night in the middle of trying to settle our stress over this 8 week setback, I received an email from USCIS that our petition was approved. It couldn't have come at a better time for Patricia's and my mental health.

Bob

This is why it's not a good thing to pay TOO much attention to the VJ timelines.

They are a helpful guide, but each case is different.

In other words...your mileage may vary.

Statistical accuracy or not.

[Jasman0717 8]

The statistics are based on what the members fill in on their individual timelines. It isn't going to represent the the overall population. The stats are very helpful and I have benefited from the information presented there.

[Bob and Patricia 0]

The estimates give you a general idea of where you stand from NOA1 to NOA2, based on member updates to their timeline. In my case, the estimates were right on the money.

I'm not sure what has happened in the past few days, but we were estimated to receive NOA2 in the first week of March with a range of 4 days. Then yesterday, (Feb 26th) we suddenly got pushed back to the 1st week of May and the range got expanded to 4 weeks.

Last night in the middle of trying to settle our stress over this 8 week setback, I received an email from USCIS that our petition was approved. It couldn't have come at a better time for Patricia's and my mental health.

Bob

This is why it's not a good thing to pay TOO much attention to the VJ timelines.

They are a helpful guide, but each case is different.

In other words...your mileage may vary.

Statistical accuracy or not.

Lessons learned in my stats classes have been coming back to me as we've been on this ride. And the data here has been so fun to suck into a spreadsheet and play/juggle/analyze.

Yes I know that not a good thing to pay TOO much attention to the VJ timelines but... it's soooo difficult to ignore them.

Bob